Although there are some $400,000,000,000 Stimulus dollars of the $820,000,000,000 already ‘appropriated’, Nancy Pelosi summoned her henchpersons to Washington today for a two pronged mission. Mission One: Steal another $2,000,000,000 Sorry, $26,000,000,000 from future Americans (let’s not kid ourselves here, we’re not paying for it. Kids and embryos will shoulder this burden) and pay off the Teachers unions, Firefighters unions and other public sector unions to make sure that they muscle their drones to the polls in November. Mission Two: To provide cover for congresscritters who SHOULD be in their home districts answering to the people, but were given the opportunity to flee in order to vote on this important legislation. Maybe THIS was Mission One. The Bill with No Name passed 247-161 today. Regardless, for those in Virginia keeping score, that would be a YES vote from congressmen Perriello, Nye, Scott, Boucher, Connolly
Good news from the home of Harry Truman, a honest Chief Executive I admire very much, and that is the citizens have crushed Obamacare at the polls, joining the Commonwealth of Virginia and other states in passing a law barring the individual mandate.
I also want to express my admiration for my former delegate Bob Marshall and my Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli and his able legal staff for their political courage in resisting the individual mandate. They are looking like visionaries at the moment. I am looking forward to meeting the attorney General at the Tea Party Convention in October
With businesses afraid to hire due to the unpredictable nature of his administration, Barack Obama’s poll numbers have hit their lowest point to date across all of the major polls. He has been abandoned by just about every group and demographic, leaving only the hard core Democratic base and African-American voters standing by their man.
Real Clear Politics averages the major polls and keeps an eye on trends. The latest average shows that Obama has nearly half of the country disapproving of the job he is doing.
With the exception on a single Time poll, every major poll has Obama’s disapproval higher than his approval. And if you look at the Rasmussen poll, which surveys only Likely Voters, as opposed to Adults or Registered Voters, the picture for Obama is even more gloomy. Rasmussen shows the disapproval rating at 56% among likely voters.
It is no wonder Obama has begun sending political teams around the country to stem the tide of negativity. But most see the move as simply an admission of failure and a lack of direction.
The First Congressional District race is over. Incumbent Rob Whittman wins in a landslide over Catherine Crabill. With % of the precincts reporting, Whitman leads 88% to 12%.
The Second Congressional District has 6 candidates running, and it looks like it is a 3 way race at this point with Scott Rigell holding the advantage. With 45% of the Precincts reporting, we see Rigell with 41%, Ben Loyola at 23% and Bert Mizusawa with 21%. Still a ways to go, but Rigell is in the drivers seat.
The Fifth Congressional District race features 7 candidates, and has boiled down to a 2 way race between Robert Hurt and James McKelvey. Hurt has the advantage with almost half of the Precincts reporting with a 46% to 26% lead over McKelvey.
The Eighth Congressional District race is very close between Matthew Berry and Patrick Murray. This one is a real squeaker and will go down to the wire. Berry has 51% and Murray is at 49% with nearly 2/3 of the Precincts in.
The Eleventh Congressional District race between Keith Fimian and Pat Herrity shows Fimian with 63% and Herrity with 27% with just over half the Precincts reporting.
This video shows exactly what President Obama has been doing since the explosion on the Deepwater Horizon Oil Platform disaster. After viewing this video, please give us your thoughts on the White House response. They claim they were there from Day 1. You be the judge.
The Tea Party movement is “mainstream” says Richmond Tea Party’s Jamie Radtke
Richmond Tea Party President dispels ‘far right-wing’ myth
Were the Founding Fathers right-wing, is our Constitution? Asks Richmond Tea Party President
Polls show Americans reject Government control, believe country on wrong track
Bush had some pretty low numbers by the time he left office, but a new PPP Poll shows that only 50% prefer Obama over Bush. 44% would rather Bush be our president.
Perhaps the greatest measure of Obama’s declining support is that just 50% of voters now say they prefer having him as President to George W. Bush, with 44% saying they’d rather have his predecessor. Given the horrendous approval ratings Bush showed during his final term that’s somewhat of a surprise and an indication that voters are increasingly placing the blame on Obama for the country’s difficulties instead of giving him space because of the tough situation he inherited. The closeness in the Obama/Bush numbers also has implications for the 2010 elections. Using the Bush card may not be particularly effective for Democrats anymore, which is good news generally for Republicans and especially ones like Rob Portman who are running for office and have close ties to the former President.
The annual Republican Advance featured a festive atmosphere and a positive attitude for the gains in 2009 and those that will be made in 2010. There were no doubters present.
It was a time to celebrate the major victory we achieved last month at the polls, but more importantly, to look forward to 2010. A time to dissect and analyze the things that worked, and those that did not. Albeit just about everything worked!
New Media Discussion Round Table - From Left: Krystal Weeks, Tucker Martin, Vincent Harris, Ford O'Connell and Jason Kenney
The major lesson to take away from 2009 was that the Republican message of smaller government, lower taxes and hard work is not only alive and well, it is thriving. The Democrats have no message – and no plans for the future. More of the same failed policies of Tim Kaine and President Obama. More budget shortfalls, misrepresented and overly optimistic revenue predictions and shortsighted “remedies” that include closing rest areas.
All three of the winning statewide office electees, Bob McDonnell, Bill Bolling and Ken Cuccinelli reiterated the message that they stated on a recent conference call: We must implement the policies we promised.
The gloating was held to a minimum, but there was a wee bit. The most laughter came from You-tube spots created by the RPV. The “I believe I made myself clear, young lady” brought the most applause and laughter.
And the story behind that video was also pretty neat, as explained by the RPV folks behind it. (For OpSec reasons, names withheld.)
And there were some really great workshops all day Saturday. Everything from Fund-raising, New Media, Election Law, and more.
And I suppose that the best word of advice came from the Keynote speaker at the Saturday night dinner. Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele lavished praise on the Virginia Republicans, especially the workers in the trenches, and complimented the election success that sent a message to Democrats around the country. And left this final sage word of advice:
Tuesday could turn out to be a much larger landslide than we could possible imagine. I have not seen John Amiral’s name on anyone’s radar, and he is poised to bring another seat into the Republican camp. Great News Indeed!
October 31, 2009
Norfolk, VA- For the first time in the race between John Amiral and Paula Miller, internal polling shows John Amiral taking the lead. As the race has quickly become competitive and drawing interest across the state, John Amiral has surged into the lead.
People are becoming more and more excited about a candidate who supports reigning in wild government spending and restoring sound economic policies in Richmond. John Amiral has been stressing the importance of creating a better business climate to attact jobs by lowering taxes and investing in our schools.
Navy Veteran John Amiral said: “I am pleased that our hard work is paying off, and the polls are clearly showing that our campaign has the momentum in our favor. The people of Norfolk are ready for a change in Richmond and I look forward to representing them as Delegate.”
“While the momentum is in our favor, we have to keep working hard these last 72 hours as the only vote that matters in on Tuesday.”
At a rally Friday, with 4 days to go until the election, Democrat Creigh Deeds said:
“Four days — four days, that’s all we’re asking. I know the polls don’t look good, but if I got discouraged every time, I’d probably be shoveling manure,” Deeds said.
Perhaps the reason Deeds is down double digits is the fact that he has already been shoveling manure and the voters don’t like it.
His entire campaign just smells bad. Manure is a good word for it. Much more polite than the words I would use.
How do you drop 7 points in the polls in two weeks? Easy if you’re Creigh Deeds. Use disrespectful terms like “young lady” to a reporter and then play coy with your plans to raise taxes in a recession. This dropped Deeds to a 9 point deficit.
With the newest polls all indicating a surge by Bob McDonnell, it would appear that the initial thesis bounce has dropped and voters are now realizing that Deeds has no plan for Virginia’s problems. In addition, the decision by Doug Wilder may be a mush larger concern than Democrats let on.
Update: Unlike the other recent polls, this Survey USA poll does not have the party affiliation creep the others have displayed. You can view the numbers here. This update is based on the three most recent polls by SurveyUSA.
So we finally have a poll where the sample has remained consistent, and the outcome has also remained consistent. So, what this poll shows is voters have not shifted, and the polls have not tightened.
What we don’t know is if the poll is a true representation of the makeup of voters on November 3, 2009. These polls do show that if a few more Republicans show up (by percentage) than Democrats, Bob McDonnell can be expected to win by double digits. And even if Democrats outnumber Republicans by a few percentage points, McDonnell will still win. Democrats will need to turn out in significantly larger numbers than Republicans to win this election.
A new poll just out proves my calculations on a post earlier today were correct when I posted the correctly weighted poll numbers and arrived at a McDonnell Lead of 54% to 33% for Deeds. At least the numbers for McDonnell were pretty close.
The SurveyUSA poll shows McDonnell with a 55 – 41 lead over Deeds.
I have not seen the internals yet, but I am sure they will be posted by tomorrow. And I will let you know my opinion of the numbers.
But for now, it seems to back up my view that many of the recent polls were shifting the advantage to the Democrats.
A new state-wide poll gives Republican Bob McDonnell a double digit lead in the race for Governor.
The latest News 7 Survey USA poll has McDonnell ahead of Democrat Creigh Deeds by 14 percentage points, with 55 percent of the vote to 41 percent.
Little has changed since two previous surveys four weeks and nine weeks ago. Both showed McDonnell with a commanding lead.
The latest Public Policy Polling poll for the Virginia Governor’s race was just released and draws the conclusion:
Creigh Deeds is now within five points of Bob McDonnell in the race to be Virginia’s next Governor, and most of the remaining undecided voters are Democrats.
Their new poll shows Republican Bob McDonnell with a 48% – 43% lead.
Their analysis draws the conclusion that the race is tightening. While that may be true, their data does not support that conclusion due to the political affiliation of the sample.
On the Surface, it would appear true by looking at the most recent three polls.
The 9/29/2009 Poll shows McDonnell up 48%-43%
The 9/01/2009 Poll shows McDonnell up 49%-42%
The 8/04/2009 Poll shows McDonnell up 51%-37%
It does appear that Deeds is climbing and McDonnell is sinking.
However, if we look at the political makeup of the people polled, it invalidates any comparison of these polls.
In the 8/4 poll, 52% voted for McCain and 41% voted for Obama. And the results of that split show McDonnell 51% to Deeds 37%. My conclusion is the voters that voted for McCain are planning to vote for McDonnell and the ones that voted for Obama plan to vote for Deeds.
In the 9/1 poll, more Obama voters were sampled and fewer McCain voters were included. 49% of the sample voted for McCain and 42% for Obama. Exactly the same split for McDonnell (49%) and Deeds (42%).
The latest poll actually sampled more Obama voters (48%) than McCain voters (45%), yet McDonnell still leads by 48% to 43% for Deeds. This is the best indication yet that Obama voters must be moving to McDonnell.
The only thing these three polls prove is that if you survey a progressively fewer number of McCain voters and a progressively increasing number of Obama voters, the number of votes for Republicans declines and the number of votes for Democrats increases.
But the big news is that if you survey more Obama voters than McCain voters, McDonnell still leads by 5%. The only way that can happen is if Obama voters are moving to McDonnell.
And for the mathematically inclined, you will notice that when you compare the 8/4 McCain voter count to the 9/29 McCain voter count there is a decline of 12%.
Conversely, you will notice when comparing the number of Obama voters on 8/4 to the number of Obama voters on 9/29, there is an increase of 23%.
This is a DELTA of 35%!
So, using these figures to compare statistical movement between the 8/4 poll and the 9/29 poll, we must add 12% to McDonnell’s vote total and deduct 23% from Deeds’ totals.
This results in a corrected poll result of McDonnell 54% – Deeds 33%.
The most disheartening news for the Deed’s camp is that even with a more favorable statistical base, leaning 35% more towards him, his negative numbers continued to increase.
And the thesis questions show 34% less likely to vote for McDonnell. It’s a pretty fair assumption most of these also polled for Deeds. And the 7% that were more favorable towards McDonnell due to the thesis were most likely McDonnell’s anyway. The fact that 59% see it as a non issue, combined with Deeds growing unfavorable numbers is simply not good at all for Democrats.
This is a trend in most of the other polls released lately. Earlier polls sampled McCain voters or Republicans more heavily. Now, pretty much every poll is sampling more Democrats / Obama voters more.
Going by just the PPP polls, this is looking like November 3 is going to be a bad night for Democrats.
Can’t we get any polls to use samples with approximately the same demographic mix? It is totally irresponsible for these pollsters to ignore a 35% swing in sample bias and draw a conclusion as if we were comparing apples to apples. We most certainly are not.
In the latest Zogby poll, Barack “The Toxic One” Obama’s job approval rating has dropped significantly to just 42%. This was a massive poll with over 4,500 likely voters responding, which means the margin of error is only 1.5%. Polls with smaller samples normally have a margin of error around 3%.
This poll shows what the news media reflects every day: Obama has moved so far the the left he has lost all but 8% of Republicans and has approval from just 37% of the independents. While Obama has a favorable job approval rating from Democrats at 75%, that has fallen 13% from a July poll.
One of the most telling internals in the poll is support from young people. In the 18-29 age bracket, the young voters approval dropped from 59% last month to just 41% this month.
And if you have any preconceived notions on the receptions proponents of Obamacare are in for should they meet their constituents, take a look at the clear, concise three word demand on how to vote.
Texas Congressman Lloyd Doggett, a supporter of Obama’s Socialized Medicine was not having a good day back home.
Remember, Congressman, these people will take this anger to the polls next year. We will not forget!
Bad news for Creigh Deeds and company. A recent SurveyUSA poll showed a 15 point lead for Republican Bob McDonnell. Many of the liberal bloggers took issue with such a large lead, and not surprisingly, attacked the polls methods and weighting.
Bob McDonnell has Huge Poll Lead over Deeds
Around the McDonnell campaign, the feeling after that poll was, we are up, but that probably overstates it a bit.
A just released poll by the group Public Policy Polling shows Bob McDonnell with a 51% – 37% advantage, a 14 point lead.
Deeds lack of any coherent policies, “me too” approach to issues – having the same approach on issues after McDonnell articulates them, running away from Obama, now running away from Kaine, leaves a seriously disorganized candidate unsurprisingly falling behind the strong leadership of the Unified Republican Ticket.
The poll also shows an across the board swing to Republicans in a state that has lately been leaning Democrat. Lt. Governor candidate Bill Bolling showed a 48% – 34% lead over Jody Wagner and Attorney General Candidate Ken Cuccinelli a 45% – 32% lead over Democrat Steve Shannon.
Today’s Rasmussen poll has Obama’s Approval Index at -10%, the third day in the last 4 that his numbers have been in double digit negatives. The approval index is obtained by subtracting the number that strongly disapprove from the number that strongly approve. The day after the inauguration, Obama enjoyed a +30% Approval Index. So, in a six month span, the President has seen his approval index drop 40%. The overall approval was also negative, with 50% disapproving to 49% approving of the President’s job performance.
Although falling in the other polls as well, Rasmussen has the lowest numbers. However, Rasmussen is the only major polling organization to use likely voters. Polls of registered voters or just whoever answers the phone show higher marks for Obama, but today’s Gallup poll shows 53% approve and 39% disapprove. Far below the numbers a few weeks ago.
More and more people have reached the point that they no longer see Bush as the culprit and believe Obama should be doing more. The DOW has been rising a bit of late, but today is heading back below 9,000 as Obama’s assault on wealth continues to worry investors.
If you have ever tried to debate or argue a point with a liberal, you will quickly notice that it is not like a debate with a conservative, or any rational person. We all know liberals are NOT rational. They think they are, and therein lies the problem. They will bring on a seemingly endless stream of meaningless and unrelated drivel until you simply give up, declaring the exercise pointless. At which point they claim victory.
But if you ever look at a road map of the conversation, you can see a pattern in every engagement. So, the real issue is to know when you have won, politely declare victory and disengage. There are a number of tactics liberals use, and the order will vary, but they are easy to recognize and my suggestion is, whenever the following tactics appear, you need to recognize them and know the liberals realize they have lost.
The Liberal Argument Outline
1. Use spun facts. These can be found on Huffington Post, Daily KOs, MSNBC, and many other liberal sources. What they do is take facts, polls or arguments and add a liberal spin in a weak attempt to make bad news for liberals look good. These are easily debunked and exposed as lies by going to the original source and posting the hard, cold facts with NO spin.
Note: At this point, you have won. It should never take more than one post to win an argument with a liberal. It is recommended that you claim victory and disengage at this point. If you continue, for fun or experimental purposes, no further logic will be forthcoming from the liberals.
2. The next step for the liberal will be to attempt to discredit your source. If it is Fox or any perceived “right wing” source, they will refuse to believe it. If it is a non-partisan source, they will claim it is right wing, if it is a left of center source, they will find another lefty source to “prove” you are wrong. They will not discuss the facts themselves, as they know they have lost. If you must go down this road (there is a high entertainment value), don’t allow this diversion. Go back to the facts.
3. The Limbaugh Defense: This is one that comes out early and often. Although you know they never listen to Rush Limbaugh and have no idea what he says, they will drag him out and claim you are a Ditto head. This is another diversionary tactic. It has no relevance and is an attempt to change the subject. The more desperate they are, the more childish and ridiculous the reference to Limbaugh becomes: Flush, LimpBag, etc. Ignore this and re-post the facts. DO NOT BE DIVERTED.
4. The Personal Attack: Another common thread. Also designed to divert the lost argument. NEVER give any hint of personal information. Even something as innocuous as “I am a chef”. They will attempt to engage you and call you a liar to divert attention from the original lost argument. Ignore this and re-post the facts yet to be refuted.
5. Name Calling: Still another diversion. If you fail to give them any personal information, they will attempt to draw you out to gain more insight into your personal side. Then they will return to step 4. Ignore this.
6. The Liberal Bat Signal: When they find out they are unable to engage you, divert you or goad you into a completely irrelevant topic, they will send out the Bat Signal. This is where a bunch of Liberals (or often, the same one using several names) post a number of rapid fire posts congratulating the Liberal on handing you your head on a platter. This tactic often works on even the most logical and disciplined of us. The urge to rant must be resisted. Your rant will supply them with all the personal insight they need to spew hatred and personal attacks. The best tactic here is to use the same tactic back at them.
Keep in mind, a Liberal will never admit you have a valid point, much less that you won a debate. So, the only reasons to continue a dialog with a liberal after the initial statement of facts that established your victory are for entertainment and educational purposes. If you refuse to take the bait and demand the topic remain on the original premise, they will eventually just go away and try to find someone else that will engage them on their terms.
