Bob McDonnell is already twice the Governor Tim Kaine was.

Several reports around the internet seem a bit critical of Governor-elect Bob McDonnell for his inaugural fund raising. Most fail to mention that Bob is planning a rather subdued celebration in keeping with the times compared to the last two Virginia Governor’s inaugurations. Democrat Tim Kaine raised a whopping $3.1 million for his inauguration after Democrat Mark Warner raised $2.5 million.

The 2010 inauguration goal is $1.5 million for Republican Bob McDonnell.

And at least one event is requesting that you bring canned goods for the food bank.

It is so nice to finally have sanity restored to Virginia. While $1.5 million is hardly chump change for most, it is far more reasonable than the previous administrations.

From Virginia State Senator Ryan McDougle

Editor’s Note: For those that have not had the pleasure of meeting Senator McDougle, he is one of the good guys. He is very involved in the Hanover Republican Committee and has always gone above and beyond for Hanover and Virginia. This is a proposal that I believe holds a lot of merit and will allow State Administrations to fully implement their vision for Virginia regardless of party.

Virginia Should Change Its Budget Process

Last month, Virginians spoke loudly. With over 58% of the vote, we elected Republican Bob McDonnell as the 71st Governor of Virginia. Additionally, we added a net of six Republican seats in the House of Delegates.

McDonnell and his Republican ticketmates won running on a platform that included a commitment to not raise taxes during a time of recession. They knew that the worst time to consider a tax increase is while Virginiaâ?Ts families are having trouble making ends meet.

They pledged to balance the current budget shortfall through targeted cuts, efficiencies, and spending reductions. And they vowed to aggressively seek to improve the economy by attracting new jobs and economic development opportunities to Virginia.

Voters responded well to this message as the election results prove.

Less than 45 days after the election, Governor Tim Kaine proposed a new two-year budget for Virginia. Embedded in his budget is a proposal to end car tax relief and to replace the car tax with a new income tax â?osurchargeâ? of 1% of a personâ?Ts income. The result of this proposal is a net tax increase on the citizens of Virginia.

During his campaign, McDonnell vowed to pay for transportation improvements in part by selling and privatizing Virginiaâ?Ts ABC operations. In his budget, Kaine embeds revenues from a proposed 2% increase on liquor prices at ABC stores.

Setting aside personal feelings on the policies proposed in Kaineâ?Ts budget, the objectives do not mesh with the policies laid out by the incoming Governor and incoming House of Delegates. This demonstrates an inherent weakness in Virginiaâ?Ts budgeting process.

Since the mid-nineteenth century, Virginia has operated under two-year budgets. Currently, when the General Assembly meets for sixty-day sessions in even-numbered years, we enact a budget for the following two years. When we meet for forty-five day sessions in odd-numbered years, we review the budget passed the previous year and make appropriate mid-way revisions to the budget in light of economic changes.

The process begins when a Governor introduces a budget proposal in December. The Governorâ?Ts introduced budget becomes a bill that serves as the starting point for the General Assemblyâ?Ts work on the budget.

The problem with the current system is evident considering Governor Kaineâ?Ts proposal on Friday. With less than one month left in his term, Governor Kaine introduced a budget that includes vastly different priorities than those of the incoming McDonnell Administration and General Assembly.

There was little motivation for Kaine to do otherwise. He will not have to shepherd the budget through the General Assembly and, come March, he will not have to make a decision of whether to sign, veto, or amend the budget passed by the General Assembly. In short, after introducing a budget proposal this year, Kaineâ?Ts direct involvement ends for good.

But while Kaine is ending his involvement with the budget, he is making the job of the General Assembly that much harder. Knowing the current political realities and the priorities of the incoming administration, we know the tax and fee increases embedded in Kaineâ?Ts budget proposal will not succeed. As a result, we must start from scratch to determine appropriate cuts. The Kaine proposal will not prove a useful starting point.

To address this exact issue, I introduced legislation last year to alter Virginiaâ?Ts budgeting process. While still allowing for a two-year budget, my legislation proposes that the General Assembly pass the two-year budget in odd-numbered years and make revisions to it in even-numbered years. The lengths of the sessions are reversed accordingly.

Such a change will be particularly beneficial during a gubernatorial transition every four years. Under my plan, a new administration will enter office during the middle of a two-year budget already enacted. During the Governorâ?Ts first General Assembly session, he or she will oversee revisions to a budget already in place.

This change prevents a situation like our current one, where an outgoing Governor presents a budget that is not in line with the priorities of his successor.

The legislation has the added benefit of allowing an incoming administration an extra year to learn the process and develop expertise before having to develop an entirely new two-year budget.

And my bill ensures that whenever a Governor introduces a two-year budget, they will be present to advocate for their budget before the General Assembly, to sign, veto, or amend what the General Assembly passes, and to govern for at least one year under the new budget.

Last year, my proposal failed to advance through the General Assembly. I am introducing the measure again this year and am hopeful our current predicament clearly demonstrates the wisdom of this change.

_____________________________________________________

Ryan T. McDougle (R-Hanover) is a member of the Senate of Virginia representing the Fourth Senatorial District.

See the results here:

A new poll from WVEC, the Virginian-Pilot and Christopher Newport University shows Republican Bob McDonnell is comfortably ahead of Democratic challenger Creigh Deeds in the race for Virginia governor.

Bob McDonnell: 44.7%

Creigh Deeds: 30.9%

Undecided: 21.9%

“They haven’t given folks a reason to say ‘I’m going to vote for Creigh Deeds.’ They’ve only given voters a reason ‘I don’t want to vote for Bob McDonnell.’ I don’t think that’s going to be a winning strategy,” Kidd believes.

Kidd praises McDonnell for running a “disciplined and focused campaign” and says he’s not surprised McDonnell is ahead.

As President Obama and Tim Kaine turn their backs on Democrat Creigh Deeds to focus on minimizing the losses next year, poll after poll show they are right. Deeds ship is sinking, and fast.

The latest poll to confirm the growing lead for Republican Bob McDonnell comes to us from the Washington Post.

Republican Robert F. McDonnell has taken a commanding lead over R. Creigh Deeds in the race for governor of Virginia, as momentum the Democrat had built with an attack on his opponent’s conservative social views has dissipated, according to a new Washington Post poll.

McDonnell leads 53 to 44 percent among likely voters, expanding on the four-point lead he held in mid-September. Deeds’s advantage with female voters has all but disappeared and McDonnell has grown his already wide margin among independents. Deeds, a state senator from western Virginia, is widely seen by voters as running a negative campaign, a finding that might indicate his aggressive efforts to exploit McDonnell’s 20-year-old graduate thesis are turning voters away.

Creigh Deeds thinks Obama and the National Democrats are sinking his bid to become Governor of Virginia. And there may be some truth to that. But instead of distinguishing his bid as a candidate with ideas, Deeds has gone the route of concentrating on a 20 year old thesis, as Republican Bob McDonnell methodically travels the state explaining his ideas to bring jobs and finance education with a $480 million increase for teacher’s and classrooms, as well as a comprehensive plan for transportation.

While Obama and Kaine have done little to bolster Deeds’ chances by moving the Democratic Party so far to the left most Virginian’s no longer relate to them, Deeds has also done little to help his own cause.

And it does appear the National Democrats are writing off the Deeds Campaign, leaving Deeds in the weeds.

Rasmussen has a nice graphic that shows Obama’s slippage:

The attacks on Sheila Johnson have nothing to do with her stuttering comments concerning Creigh Deeds. They have everything to do with a successful African-American woman who “don’t know her place”. The left has been looking for an excuse to slam her ever since she endorsed Republican Bob McDonnell for Governor.

What they wanted to say was “You are a wealthy, successful black woman who has made your money off of other blacks. How dare you not throw all your support to the Democratic Party! We are the ones that got you here.”

But saying that would be overtly racist. You are black, so you must be a Democrat. We can’t have that, can we?

So, there were grumbles, there were a few blue blogs that attempted to marginalize her. But there was no real way to retaliate against her without looking foolish, and racist.

So the left waited.

When Ms. Johnson made a joke about Deeds speech patterns, the Media and the lefty blogs suddenly had the vehicle to release the pent up anger at this black woman that does not know her place. How dare she make fun of a politician’s speech problems? They are all wee weed up!

So, the same media and blogs that were first in line to giggle with glee whenever President George W. Bush stammered over a word or two are suddenly incensed that a person could make fun of a speech problem.

Now do you see the racism? These people really don’t care about Ms. Johnson’s levity at Deeds’ expense. They simply want to punish her for the crime of endorsing a Republican. Plain and simple.

By the way, Deeds campaign admits he does not have a speech problem and has never sought medical attention for his diction. He has always talked like that.

However, if you pay attention as to exactly when he has a major problem, it is when he is trying to talk out of both sides of his mouth at once. Like saying he will raise taxes and not raise taxes at the same time. Or pretending to be a “progressive” liberal in NoVa and a Blue Dog in Bath. Or supporting collective bargaining to one group of Police Officers and not supporting it to another.

His speech problem is more a moral issue. He can solve his problem simply by being himself and telling the truth.

But then he will definitely lose the election.

But the stuttering does make for one hell of a truth detector.

Doug Wilder better look out. The Democrats are all wee weed up over your non endorsement, too.

Update: Unlike the other recent polls, this Survey USA poll does not have the party affiliation creep the others have displayed. You can view the numbers here. This update is based on the three most recent polls by SurveyUSA.

So we finally have a poll where the sample has remained consistent, and the outcome has also remained consistent. So, what this poll shows is voters have not shifted, and the polls have not tightened.

What we don’t know is if the poll is a true representation of the makeup of voters on November 3, 2009. These polls do show that if a few more Republicans show up (by percentage) than Democrats, Bob McDonnell can be expected to win by double digits. And even if Democrats outnumber Republicans by a few percentage points, McDonnell will still win. Democrats will need to turn out in significantly larger numbers than Republicans to win this election.

A new poll just out proves my calculations on a post earlier today were correct when I posted the correctly weighted poll numbers and arrived at a McDonnell Lead of 54% to 33% for Deeds. At least the numbers for McDonnell were pretty close.

The SurveyUSA poll shows McDonnell with a 55 – 41 lead over Deeds.

I have not seen the internals yet, but I am sure they will be posted by tomorrow. And I will let you know my opinion of the numbers.

But for now, it seems to back up my view that many of the recent polls were shifting the advantage to the Democrats.

A new state-wide poll gives Republican Bob McDonnell a double digit lead in the race for Governor.

The latest News 7 Survey USA poll has McDonnell ahead of Democrat Creigh Deeds by 14 percentage points, with 55 percent of the vote to 41 percent.

Little has changed since two previous surveys four weeks and nine weeks ago. Both showed McDonnell with a commanding lead.

The latest Public Policy Polling poll for the Virginia Governor’s race was just released and draws the conclusion:

Creigh Deeds is now within five points of Bob McDonnell in the race to be Virginia’s next Governor, and most of the remaining undecided voters are Democrats.

Their new poll shows Republican Bob McDonnell with a 48% – 43% lead.

Their analysis draws the conclusion that the race is tightening. While that may be true, their data does not support that conclusion due to the political affiliation of the sample.

On the Surface, it would appear true by looking at the most recent three polls.

The 9/29/2009 Poll shows McDonnell up 48%-43%
The 9/01/2009 Poll shows McDonnell up 49%-42%
The 8/04/2009 Poll shows McDonnell up 51%-37%

It does appear that Deeds is climbing and McDonnell is sinking.

However, if we look at the political makeup of the people polled, it invalidates any comparison of these polls.

In the 8/4 poll, 52% voted for McCain and 41% voted for Obama. And the results of that split show McDonnell 51% to Deeds 37%. My conclusion is the voters that voted for McCain are planning to vote for McDonnell and the ones that voted for Obama plan to vote for Deeds.

In the 9/1 poll, more Obama voters were sampled and fewer McCain voters were included. 49% of the sample voted for McCain and 42% for Obama. Exactly the same split for McDonnell (49%) and Deeds (42%).

The latest poll actually sampled more Obama voters (48%) than McCain voters (45%), yet McDonnell still leads by 48% to 43% for Deeds. This is the best indication yet that Obama voters must be moving to McDonnell.

The only thing these three polls prove is that if you survey a progressively fewer number of McCain voters and a progressively increasing number of Obama voters, the number of votes for Republicans declines and the number of votes for Democrats increases.

But the big news is that if you survey more Obama voters than McCain voters, McDonnell still leads by 5%. The only way that can happen is if Obama voters are moving to McDonnell.

And for the mathematically inclined, you will notice that when you compare the 8/4 McCain voter count to the 9/29 McCain voter count there is a decline of 12%.

Conversely, you will notice when comparing the number of Obama voters on 8/4 to the number of Obama voters on 9/29, there is an increase of 23%.

This is a DELTA of 35%!

So, using these figures to compare statistical movement between the 8/4 poll and the 9/29 poll, we must add 12% to McDonnell’s vote total and deduct 23% from Deeds’ totals.

This results in a corrected poll result of McDonnell 54% – Deeds 33%.

The most disheartening news for the Deed’s camp is that even with a more favorable statistical base, leaning 35% more towards him, his negative numbers continued to increase.

And the thesis questions show 34% less likely to vote for McDonnell. It’s a pretty fair assumption most of these also polled for Deeds. And the 7% that were more favorable towards McDonnell due to the thesis were most likely McDonnell’s anyway. The fact that 59% see it as a non issue, combined with Deeds growing unfavorable numbers is simply not good at all for Democrats.

This is a trend in most of the other polls released lately. Earlier polls sampled McCain voters or Republicans more heavily. Now, pretty much every poll is sampling more Democrats / Obama voters more.

Going by just the PPP polls, this is looking like November 3 is going to be a bad night for Democrats.

Can’t we get any polls to use samples with approximately the same demographic mix? It is totally irresponsible for these pollsters to ignore a 35% swing in sample bias and draw a conclusion as if we were comparing apples to apples. We most certainly are not.

What the media is saying:

EVEN the Washington Post says Bob Won the Debate on Transportation, while Deeds “… he bungled it pretty badly.”

Washington Post, September 18, 2009
Deeds Has Trouble with Taxes, Press Corps
- Clearly Paves Way for Gas Tax Hike, Hounded by Media After Debate -
- In Traffic-Congested Northern Virginia, Still no Details on Roads from Democrat -

RICHMOND – A day after the pivotal debate hosted by the Fairfax Chamber of Commerce, the hubbub surrounding Democrat Creigh Deeds’ flustered performance continued Friday. Pressed by Republican Bob McDonnell and moderator David Gregory of NBC, Deeds quite clearly revealed his plan to increase the tax on gasoline – while still not providing a single detail of what his transportation proposal actually is. Following the debate, Deeds willfully refused to be coherent when pestered by the media, but did make telling utterances that belied his desire to raise the gas tax.

Washington Post
Headline: “Plain and Simple, Deeds Stumbles In N.Va. Debate”
“If you’re a candidate for governor coming to debate in Northern Virginia, you’d better be able to say simply and plainly how you’d raise money to repair and improve the roads. Democratic State Sen. R. Creigh Deeds (Bath) failed to do that Thursday. In fact, he bungled it pretty badly. He managed to sound both vague and two-faced about the most important issue in the race for the Washington region.”

“When asked directly by moderator David Gregory of NBC News whether he would raise taxes if necessary in the current economic climate, Deeds said: ‘No, I’m not going to raise taxes. But I am the only person on this dais who will sign a transportation plan that raises new money.’

“Huh? When I and other reporters pressed him afterward to clarify, he said he meant only that he wouldn’t raise taxes for the state’s general fund, which pays for a broad range of services, including education and law enforcement. That clearly left open the possibility that he’d raise taxes for the transportation fund, which is separate.”
Read the Rest here in the Washington Post which includes the now infamous Deeds line “‘I think I made myself clear, young lady. I don’t know,’ Deeds said.

Roanoke Times
“Deeds said he would not increase taxes for general fund programs such as education, health care and public safety, despite budget shortfalls that have forced Gov. Tim Kaine and state lawmakers to slash billions in funding for state programs. But Deeds would not make the same pledge when it came to transportation…”

“Deeds faced a barrage of questions after the debate from reporters asking him to clarify his position on taxes and transportation funding. He grew testy at one point, telling a reporter, ‘I think I’ve made myself clear, young lady.’”

Associated Press
“The two clashed on taxes and transportation. Deeds said he won’t raise taxes, but as he has in the past, made an exception for transportation.”

Free Lance-Star
“Deeds said he has promised to work for a bipartisan plan that includes $1 billion in new revenue, although he said he would not raise general fund taxes–suggesting that taxes that don’t go to the general fund, such as the gas tax, would be an option.”

Virginian-Pilot
“McDonnell repeated previous accusations that Deeds hasn’t articulated a transportation plan, at one point holding up a blank sheet of paper as an example of what he says are Deeds’ ideas to pay for road projects.

“‘I’m shocked that 47 days to go, my opponent walks in here and has no transportation plan – not one dime, not one project,’ McDonnell said during a debate with Deeds in Northern Virginia. ‘Here’s my opponents’ plan – not a thing on it. Look at his Web site. There’s nothing there.’”

“Both men said that if elected, they would not raise taxes despite the recession. Deeds later clarified that he would support an increase to pay for roads but wouldn’t support other new general-fund levies.”

According to Politico, Republican Bob McDonnell holds a solid lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds in the Virginia Governor’s race.

Republican Bob McDonnell holds a comfortable lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds in the Virginia gubernatorial contest, according to a new Daily Kos poll, results virtually unchanged since news of McDonnell’s socially-conservative thesis emerged.

Read the story here.

The Latest From Virginia: Governor’s Race, No Change. Lieutenant Governor’s Race, No Change. Attorney General’s Race, No Change. In statewide elections in Virginia today, two months until votes are counted, Republicans sweep, taking the statehouse away from the Democrats and holding the Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General offices, according to SurveyUSA polling for WDBJ-TV Roanoke and WJLA-TV Washington DC.

For Governor, Republican Bob McDonnell appears undamaged and today defeats Democrat Creigh Deeds. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released five weeks ago, the race has tightened slightly, not dramatically. There is movement to Deeds in the Washington DC suburbs, where a 15-point McDonnell lead has evaporated, but there is no GOP erosion in the rest of the state. There is softening in McDonnell’s support among voters age 50+, but that is offset by gains for McDonnell among voters age 35 to 49. Of those who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and who are judged by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in November 2009, 13% cross-over for McDonnell, twice the number of McCain voters who cross-over for Deeds.

For Lieutenant Governor, Incumbent Republican Bill Bolling is today elected to a second term, defeating Democrat Jody Wagner, former Treasurer of VA and VA Secretary of Finance, 52% to 42%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 5 weeks ago, the contest is largely unchanged. There is movement to the Democrat in Southeast and Northeast VA and offsetting movement to the Republican in Central VA.

For Attorney General, Republican state senator Ken Cuccinelli today defeats Democrat state representative Steve Shannon 54% to 41%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll five weeks ago, the race is unchanged. There is movement to the Republican among women, offsetting movement to the Democrat among men. Both men represent adjoining districts in Fairfax County. Cuccinelli is at or above 50% in every region of the state.

In a shocking move that is sure to upset Christians in Bath Count and throughout Virginia, Democrat candidate Creigh Deeds has leveled attacks at Republican Bob McDonnell for his Catholic beliefs. Contraception is condemned in the Bible. The Catholic Church stands firmly against it’s use. In case you wish to see a list of scriptures that support this, visit this website.

Is it fair, in the heat of a campaign, to attack the religious beliefs of a candidate? Has Creigh Deeds fallen so hopelessly behind that his campaign and Governor Tim Kaine’s DNC machine feel that one’s faith is fair game?

This country was founded on religious tolerance. We are brought up to respect each other’s faith and beliefs.

Are the campaigns now going to dig into Sunday School writings of Deeds? Is this relevant to Virginia when we are in the depths of the longest recession since the Great Depression? And what is the matter with the Washington Post? This is a new low even for them.

Over the last couple of decades since the thesis was written, attitudes in the Catholic Church have changed, even if the Vatican has not. Some estimates say as many as 96% of Catholics have used some form of birth control.

Whatever Bob McDonnell’s beliefs are concerning contraception at this time, I am sure I don’t have a clue, or a concern. Regardless of how you feel on the subject, I really don’t see condoms and “the pill” being made illegal by the Commonwealth of Virginia. Does anyone even believe that is something Bob McDonnell could do if he wanted to? Just how much power does the DNC and Deeds think the office of Governor has in the Commonwealth?

This is a totally bogus smoke screen designed to take the focus off of Deed’s lack of relevance in this race. Nothing more.

We are truly lucky in Virginia this year. Both gubernatorial candidates are Conservatives. While Republican Bob McDonnell represents the true conservative Republican values, and is most definitely the best choice, Democratic candidate Creigh Deeds might just qualify as Republican-Lite.

Deeds often plays the “me too” game with Bob McDonnell where Bob comes out with a sold plan or idea, then Creigh chimes in and claims the same beliefs, or plan, or whatever the occasion. It is a truly refreshing change from the partisan rancor of past elections in Virginia.

This contest has the look and feel of a Republican primary.

Deeds seems to be running the same type of campaign that John McCain ran against Barack Obama. Many of us called McCain Democrat-Lite. I have often remarked that McCain should just move on over to the dark side.

I am not quite sure what it is with Creigh Deeds that has him following Bob McDonnell’s every step like a puppy. Is it a man crush?
The hard core Democrats in Virginia must really be beside themselves with the watered down Deeds campaign. Pro gun, English as the official language, the Marriage Amendment, and Deeds has even voted to restrict abortions. Creigh voted for the so-called “Partial Birth Abortion” bill, HB 1154, in 1998 [patron Roger McClure] and he voted for the parental notification bill, HB 2899, in 1997 [patron Robert G. Marshall].

Hardly a candidate the left can get excited about. If only left wing extremist Terry McAuliffe had won the primary, the dwindling numbers of Obama supporters would be jumping up and down. No matter what happens in the election, “Progressives” have lost Virginia.

Bad news for Creigh Deeds and company. A recent SurveyUSA poll showed a 15 point lead for Republican Bob McDonnell. Many of the liberal bloggers took issue with such a large lead, and not surprisingly, attacked the polls methods and weighting.

Around the McDonnell campaign, the feeling after that poll was, we are up, but that probably overstates it a bit.

A just released poll by the group Public Policy Polling shows Bob McDonnell with a 51% – 37% advantage, a 14 point lead.

Deeds lack of any coherent policies, “me too” approach to issues – having the same approach on issues after McDonnell articulates them, running away from Obama, now running away from Kaine, leaves a seriously disorganized candidate unsurprisingly falling behind the strong leadership of the Unified Republican Ticket.

The poll also shows an across the board swing to Republicans in a state that has lately been leaning Democrat. Lt. Governor candidate Bill Bolling showed a 48% – 34% lead over Jody Wagner and Attorney General Candidate Ken Cuccinelli a 45% – 32% lead over Democrat Steve Shannon.

The results of the poll can be viewed here.

A new poll taken by SurveyUSA has Republican Bob McDonnell up by 15 points over Creigh Deeds. Bill Bolling and Ken Cuccinelli are also up double digits over their opponents. Here are the results:

Asked of 526 likely voters

Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%

If the election for Virginia governor were today, would you vote for… (candidate names rotated) Republican Bob McDonnell? or Democrat Creigh Deeds?

55% McDonnell (R)
40% Deeds (D)
5% Undecided

Asked of 526 likely voters

Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%

Virginia will also elect a lieutenant governor. If the election for lieutenant governor were today, would you vote for… (candidate names rotated) Republican Bill Bolling? or Democrat Jody Wagner?

54% Bolling (R)
42% Wagner (D)
4% Undecided

Asked of 526 likely voters

Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.4%

Virginia will also elect an attorney general. If the election for attorney general were today, would you vote for… (candidate names rotated) Republican Ken Cuccinelli? or Democrat Steve Shannon?

53% Cuccinelli (R)
42% Shannon (D)
6% Undecided