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WILL ALTERNATIVE for GERMANY SHOCK the WORLD on September 22?

The openly euroskeptic Alternative for Germany (AfD) has suddenly shown the kind of polling strength that will win it seats in the Bundestag (German Federal Parliament).  Here’s the Economist’s (blog) report:

When I spoke to Manfred Güllner at Forsa, a leading German pollster, in March, he thought the Alternative would get maybe 1% at best.

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And here is the consequence: Mr Güllner currently has the Alternative at 4%. Since he suspects that this must be an underestimate, the real percentage must be higher. And the threshold to get into the German parliament is 5%. So as of this week, I’m working on the assumption that the Alternative, an openly Eurosceptic party, could be in the Bundestag after September 22nd.

The Forsa believes that it is likely that the 4% for AfD is undercounted and since it takes only 5% to get into the parliament, the AfD will get seats.  I think that would be splendid (except the German people ought to vote about 50% for the AfD!) and would force debate on such issues as bailouts for other euro nations, sovereignty of nations within a reformed EU and should the German Deutschmark be returned.

Here is another report from BusinessWeek:

AfD, by contrast, is taking aim squarely at German taxpayers’ fears about the cost of bailing out crisis-hit euro zone economies. Those fears have mounted in recent weeks on reports that Greece is failing to meet reform targets set by international lenders.

And this from a British newspaper (The Independent):

“There is a good chance that there will be more AfD voters coming out of the woodwork,” Peter Matuscheck, Forsa’s chief political analyst, told Spiegel Online. “Many people are too embarrassed to admit that they are planning to vote for the party.”

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The AfD wants crisis-hit countries including Greece, Spain, Italy and even France to voluntarily leave the eurozone, leaving Germany and a core of wealthy northern European countries to form a new economic bloc.

If the party enters parliament, its presence could hugely complicate Chancellor Merkel’s plans to continue governing with her liberal Free Democrat coalition partners. She could be forced to seek a new grand coalition government with the opposition Social Democrats with whom she governed from 2005 until 2009.

Other less traditional polls show the possibility of even double digits for AfD:

Traditional polls predict 3-4 % for AfD, while Wahl-Radar 2013 – whose use of social media data enabled them to correctly predict the result of the Pirate Party in the latest Berlin elections – in a recent meta poll predicts that AfD will get a fairly sensational 7,6 % of the vote. Another metapoll, Wahl-o-Meter.com, quotes numbers over 10 percent, while an online poll (admittedly unscientific) by the large German tabloid Bild indicated a stunning 15 % for the upstart party.

I guess we’ll find out September 22.  Now where’s that next Virginia Governor’s poll…

About Elwood Sanders

Elwood “Sandy” Sanders is a Hanover attorney who is an Appellate Procedure Consultant for Lantagne Legal Printing and has written ten scholarly legal articles. Sandy was also Virginia’s first Appellate Defender and also helped bring curling in VA! (None of these titles imply any endorsement of Sanders’ views)

One Response to “WILL ALTERNATIVE for GERMANY SHOCK the WORLD on September 22?”

  1. Gene says:

    Are you suggesting that we should reward the Republicans for the Bush and McDonnell administrations? Put another Republican in office?

    If so, may I ask what have you been smoking?

    We cannot afford 4 more years of the Republicans in Virginia. Just look at the cost of the legal bills alone. Look at the Republican tax and budget increases?

    It takes years and years to clean up the mess left by the Republicans.

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    Tom White Says:

    Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

    Check out NewsMax!

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