I just saw the summary of the Conservative Intel poll on the Virginia governor’s race (thanks to Hot Air for this news, too) and it is good news for the Libertarian: He’s still drawing ten percent (and about the same amount are undecided) and the analysis says two things – this first about the numbers:
Our survey shows Democrat Terry McAuliffe leading Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli 42%-37% in a race that is being heavily affected by Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis, who is polling at 10%
As a Libertarian, the assumption that Sarvis is siphoning votes from Republican Cuccinelli is only partly true. Sarvis’ support on the ballot comes from 4% of Democrats, 7% of Republicans and 18% of independent or third party voters, some of whom are undoubtedly Libertarians.
And this truth about third parties – they lose steam when it seems people decide they cannot win:
It must be noted that third party candidates very often perform better in polling than they do at the ballot box. Therefore, the migration of Sarvis’ voters (10%) and undecided voters (11%) to one of the two candidates will determine the outcome of the race.