A brand new Economist/YouGov Poll shows Hillart with a 2 point lead in a 4 way race (with the other 2 parties). Sorry pollsters, this poll is, in my opinion, of little use. You are predicting that the turnout for Hillary will be almost double the turnout for Obama. That is simply not going to happen without massive voter fraud.
The totals reported are unweighted, meaning they did not correct the sample for over polling of Democrats.
And according to the numbers in the polls, they asked 406 Democrats, 364 Independents and only 287 Republicans who they would vote for if the election were held today. Percentages break down to 38% Democrats, 27% Republicans and 34% Independents. Democrats made up 38% of the turnout in 2012 and Republicans 32% – a 6 point spread. Independents were 29%. This poll has 11% more Democrats.
Even in 2008, Obama’s best election he only had a +7% Democrat turnout.
The other polls released today show a +4 Democrat advantage or a just about evenly split divide. Does anyone believe Hillary will see more enthusiasm for her than Obama received in 2008? By 5 or 6 points?
If the turnout is, as most expect, no more than a +4 advantage, this poll should remove 7 points from Hillary and ass them to Trump giving Trump a 49% to 40% lead.
But this poll will help counter the Trump surge in the averages, which is the only reason I can think of for a +11 Democrat poll for Hillary.