Update: Unlike the other recent polls, this Survey USA poll does not have the party affiliation creep the others have displayed. You can view the numbers here. This update is based on the three most recent polls by SurveyUSA.
So we finally have a poll where the sample has remained consistent, and the outcome has also remained consistent. So, what this poll shows is voters have not shifted, and the polls have not tightened.
What we don’t know is if the poll is a true representation of the makeup of voters on November 3, 2009. These polls do show that if a few more Republicans show up (by percentage) than Democrats, Bob McDonnell can be expected to win by double digits. And even if Democrats outnumber Republicans by a few percentage points, McDonnell will still win. Democrats will need to turn out in significantly larger numbers than Republicans to win this election.
A new poll just out proves my calculations on a post earlier today were correct when I posted the correctly weighted poll numbers and arrived at a McDonnell Lead of 54% to 33% for Deeds. At least the numbers for McDonnell were pretty close.
The SurveyUSA poll shows McDonnell with a 55 – 41 lead over Deeds.
I have not seen the internals yet, but I am sure they will be posted by tomorrow. And I will let you know my opinion of the numbers.
But for now, it seems to back up my view that many of the recent polls were shifting the advantage to the Democrats.
A new state-wide poll gives Republican Bob McDonnell a double digit lead in the race for Governor.
The latest News 7 Survey USA poll has McDonnell ahead of Democrat Creigh Deeds by 14 percentage points, with 55 percent of the vote to 41 percent.
Little has changed since two previous surveys four weeks and nine weeks ago. Both showed McDonnell with a commanding lead.