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Can Trump Actually Carry Virginia? Tantalizing Evidence Suggests Maybe…

Very speculative…

I had written off Virginia. I voted for President Trump more as a hope than a realistic chance he might win. I was influenced by radio talk show host John Fredericks who has said for weeks Trump can win – behind yes but can win. His theory was that Get Out The Vote might help the President.

But there is that pesky Northern Virginia.

First I have the intriguing post from the VCDL:

Target Smart, a Democrat-leaning election data firm, has reported its analysis of early voters — and its projection of who will vote on Election Day.  It has concluded: 
President Trump can win Virginia.

Target Smart provides the following data for Virginia: 
Early Voting through 10/30/2020:   2,292,289+ ballots cast
DEM  1,109,287 (48.4%)    REP   872,623 (38.1%)    Other   310,379 (13.5%)

Of estimated total turnout in Virginia, based on past performance, 53% have already voted, leaving 46% to vote on Election Day with 1% no opinion.

Voters left to vote on Election Day:  REP 55%   DEM 30%    IND 15%
Election Day Voters Preference:  Trump 59%    Biden 35%    Jorgensen 4% (Libertarian).  

In short, Target Smart concludes that President Trump is looking at a four-point lead in Virginia IF he gets a solid Republican turnout.  

The VCDL (or TargetSmart) is actually citing a post called Statespoll and while they do not predict the Old Dominion is going for the President, they do have it in a moderately Dem status (They use Tilt/Lean/Likely and Virginia is Lean Dem).

Statespoll, Pollwatch 2020 and Larry Schweikart (A bit more strident than I am fully comfortable) are alternative information sites for contrarian views of this election. I recommend EVERY Trump voter get out in vote today and have a MSN news blackout.

Larry Schweikart says in a very recent tweet:

VA is NOT out of reach. Student shortfall + black shortfall + Trump-voting blacks + crazy #s from whites, over 50, men and non-college may be enough.

This is my feel; VA still likely for the Dems but vote as it it matters, Because it does!

About Elwood Sanders

Elwood "Sandy" Sanders is a Hanover attorney who is an Appellate Procedure Consultant for Lantagne Legal Printing and has written ten scholarly legal articles. Sandy was also Virginia's first Appellate Defender and also helped bring curling in VA! (None of these titles imply any endorsement of Sanders’ views)

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Tom White Says:

Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

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