A lot of the pundits are looking at the polls and the race in general and comparing it to past presidential races.
I created a computer program to tell us what the results would have been if the polling ratios in this year’s polls were applied to historic models of past presidential elections.
The results are interesting.
If we have voters turn out like they did in 2008, most models show Obama would win. A few would give the nod to Romney.
Most of the difference is in the Independent vote. Some years there were more Independents and some less. And they are mostly favoring Romney this year, where in 2008 they were voting in Obama’s favor.
What this computer model does is take the percentages of Republicans, Democrats and Independents as found by each poll and applies that ratio to the actual turnout for each election year.
And just for fun we have added the 2012 polling model of +2 Republican and a Neutral model there Republicans, Democrats and Independents are all 33% of the projected turnout.
These polls also identify a skew, the actual poll results as well as a grade. Of course the grades are subjective, but they are mostly grading the poll’s transparency and how detailed the data is which they release with the poll. The grade also considers the ratios of gender and race as far as the grade itself, but the year models are independent of any data outside of the party affiliation breakdown ratios.
So now you can see how this race may have compared to previous races.
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