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Could Vogel and Adams Have Won If the GOP Had 100 HOD Candidates?

I was seized with a thought:

What about ALL those HOD races (mostly in NOVA but not all) where the Democrat ran unopposed?  I counted (not including third party and indy challenges) 23 (TWENTY-THREE) races.

In the state senate races in 2015, I compared the Third Senate District (Norment) to the Fourth (McDougle):

Compare District 4 with District 3 – the turnout in Senator Norment’s district was 51,000 votes (a late night boo-boo perhaps in original post!) compared to the 38,000 in Senator McDougle’s.  The GOP turnout was about the same but Reyes brought in 15,000 votes that mostly likely voted Democrat in other races on the ballot.

I complied the uncontested races in late April and came up with:

Here are the House of Delegates districts where there is no Republican reportedly running against a Democrat:

11 (Rasoul), 35 (Keam), 36 (Plum), 37 (Bulova), 38 (Kory), 39 (Watts), 41 (Filler-Corn), 42 (a contested D primary with no incumbent), 43 (Sickles), 44 (Krizer), 45 (Levine), 46 (C. Herring), 47 (Hope), 48 (Sullivan), 52 (Torian), 53 (Simon), 57 (Toscano with a primary challenger), 63 (Aird who also has a primary challenger), 69 (Carr who has a independent challenger), 70 (McQuinn who has a primary challenger), 71 (Bourne), 74 (Bagby with an independent challenger), 75 (Tyler), 77 (Hayes with an independent challenger), 79 (Heretick), 80 (James), 86 (Boysko), 89 (two Dems in primary and an independent), 92 (Ward with a primary challenger), AND 95 (Price).

There were two NOVA races (38 and 42) where there was found a GOP challenger.

Paul Haring ran in District 38 and Lolita Mancheno-Smoak in 42.  Haring garnered just under 6000 votes (5718 – all my numbers are from the state election board website) and he spent less than $2k.  (closer to $1000 in fact).  Mancheno-Smoak raised about $132k and did somewhat better:  nearly 12,000 votes.

It is safe to say about 80/90% of these voters voted for Vogel and Adams.

So let’s remember this suggestion and do the math!

These 29 races ought to have solid candidates. If you recruit them – I understand the GOP can nominate candidates (ballot access has its advantages) without a signature – if the party recruits them they can run. Give them $5000 each and free access to solid campaign staffers – maybe a pool of campaign managers to run several campaigns at once.

The $5000 each would only be $145,000 total and the Republican races without a contest could help with that by giving some campaign funds they will not need or the RPV could have a special fund for this purpose. Spending money will force the incumbents (and maybe the state party) to spend a few dollars in these races to protect these incumbents.

Let’s make two assumptions that I contend are reasonable.

  • If Haring had $5000, he’d garner 7500 votes and maybe 10,000!
  • There was a legitimate (non-kooky) hopeful for the GOP in each of the 23 districts where there was no major party opponent (11, 35-37, 39, 41, 43-48, 52, 57, 63, 70-71, 75, 79-80, 90, 92, 95) they would do the same.

7500 times 23 is (the tarantula had to get out his calculator but eight legs makes calculations work better!) a princely 172,500 votes.

10,000 times 23 (don’t need a calculator for this one!) is 230,000 votes!

Vogel lost by 141,343 votes and Adams lost by 174,879 (Gillespie lost by 233,928) so in theory Vogel would have won in the 7500 vote assumption and Adams narrowly lost and applying the 10,000 vote assumption, both Vogel and Adams would have been victorious and Gillespie would have narrowly lost.

Now the existence of a challenge would have caused a few more Dems to come out and thus this would not ensure victory without other factors such as the Sanders Platform or other adaptations of GOP truths appropriate for young people, suburban women, African-Americans, Hispanics and other groups the Republicans have not been able to reach.

But I could see a net 50k-75k – maybe even 100k votes – at the investment of just over $100k.  Unopposed incumbents could have helped financially and overwhelming favorites in state senate and congressional hopefuls as well.

So I ask again?

Who’s in at the RPV?

 

About Elwood Sanders

Elwood “Sandy” Sanders is a Hanover attorney who is an Appellate Procedure Consultant for Lantagne Legal Printing and has written ten scholarly legal articles. Sandy was also Virginia’s first Appellate Defender and also helped bring curling in VA! (None of these titles imply any endorsement of Sanders’ views)

One Response to “Could Vogel and Adams Have Won If the GOP Had 100 HOD Candidates?”

  1. Paul Blumstein says:

    Typo in fith paragraph: I complied the uncontested races…

    Complied s/b compiled

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    Tom White Says:

    Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

    Check out NewsMax!

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