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DID LOUISIANA CHANGE its CAUCUS DATE to APRIL 28 to HURT PAUL or HELP JINDAL in the event of a BROKERED CONVENTION?

Here’s what’s Sandy the blogger does while he drives on his way back on business (I spoke to the Winchester Bar Association today on state appellate procedure); he thinks up new blogs to post!  (I also pray, praise Jesus and listen to awesome music or the radio!)

Louisiana had not set its caucuses (not cauci!) yet in the campaign season.  It was expected to be early in the process.

The Republican party passed rules last summer, and the expectation was to have an early caucus in January of February. The final date was not selected at that time because some of the other states were in flux. Louisiana had not picked a date because Florida and other states had not set a date for their caucuses. But now that the other states' dates have been set, many conservative, grass roots activists in Louisiana are ready to roll.

Finally they set it – winner take all it appears – on April 28 2012.  The state convention is June 2, 2012.  Here‘s the LAGOP announcement.

But some believe the effort was to hurt Ron Paul who has a huge following in the Pelican State:

"He's [Jindal] doing it to further his national ambitions," [Louisiana talk show host Moon]Griffon told THE DEAD PELICAN. Griffon said that if the Louisiana Republican Caucus were held today, Texas Congressman Ron Paul would win.  *  *  *  [Blogger John K.]Roberts is right about Ron Paul's strong grassroots support in Louisiana. THE DEAD PELICAN saw it first- hand on the night of the Iowa caucus, when we paid a visit to the Ron Paul campaign headquarters in Baton Rouge. The main room was filled with wall-to-wall twenty-somethings frantically working the phones in support of their candidate, and the energy in the room was papable. (blogger's note:  John Roberts writes this blog:  http://www.taxpayersoflouisiana.com/)

Perhaps that was their original intent:  Governor Jindal endorsed Texas Governor Rick Perry who is now in the race.  He may have wanted to thwart Paul and help Perry.  But now we might have a brokered convention.  The chances have increased tremendously (say from virtually zero to about 25%) for a convention where no one gets a majority.  CNN on Tuesday night was showing how Romney will have a big lead even if the others do well in say February and March.  But what I picked up was:  How Romney was nowhere near a majority!

A brokered convention would be a dream (Where do I sign up to blog at the convention!) for a guy like me!  BUT, the real issue is who would be the compromise candidate?  I think one of four or five obvious choices is Governor Jindal (The others are Senator DeMint, Senator Marco Rubio, Senator Rand Paul and Governor McDonnell) for the GOP nod.  (Why those four?  Governor Christie is out for his too fervent support of Romney, Governor Daniels will say no, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush is named Bush, no one who actually ran for President will be acceptable, and no one else has national stature to win.)

But what if the Louisiana GOP decided to wait to see what would happen in the early contests?  If Romney is way ahead, we can help him get closer or even over the top.  That will help Governor Jindal to be a plausible VP.  (Jindal would be an awesome running mate and would have done better for John McCain than former Alaska governor Sarah Palin.)  BUT IF NOT…let’s run Governor Jindal as a favorite son!  The LA GOP will not do anything that the governor did not assent to.

I would watch for a uncommitted slate of delegates in each local caucus.  If the convention is unsettled in April, the GOP may run the uncommitted slate.  (Now the primary on March 28 allocates to all candidates getting over 25% of the vote a proportion of these delegates but ONLY these delegates.  But on the second ballot, who knows?  I would need to research if the state statutes REQUIRE the delegates to be bound)

We’ll see what happens…

 

But, the thing to watch for is:  to

About Elwood Sanders

Elwood "Sandy" Sanders is a Hanover attorney who is an Appellate Procedure Consultant for Lantagne Legal Printing and has written ten scholarly legal articles. Sandy was also Virginia's first Appellate Defender and also helped bring curling in VA! (None of these titles imply any endorsement of Sanders’ views)

2 Responses to “DID LOUISIANA CHANGE its CAUCUS DATE to APRIL 28 to HURT PAUL or HELP JINDAL in the event of a BROKERED CONVENTION?”

  1. Lester Gabriel says:

    Number one-I have no problem with the concept of a "Favored Son". It is a concept that has gone out of favor, but for States that really want to have an impact, nothing would be more powerful than coming into a Convention with a group of Delegates that could make an independent judgement on the second or later ballot. Also, the most likely outcome of an open (or multi-ballot) Convention would be for one of the 4 Candidates who brought Delegates to win on the second or later ballot. The only scenario in which a new name would get into the mix is only if it became clear after multiple ballots that none of the original candidates could ever come to a majority. My expectations for a multi-ballot Convention would be Romney on the 2nd ballot (many Delegates would fall in line behind the Establishment figures leading the delegations (Governors/Senators, etc.) or Santorum after 5 or 6 ballots (Romney and Gingrich delegates would be unlikely to ever support each other, but might compromise on Santorum).

  2. Lester, thank you for coming by and commenting. I think your scenario is possible and well-thought out. But, I think if no one gets a majority, none will win because all the camps will hold out to hurt the other. The only way around is a ticket of say Romney-Santorum for example to get enough to win the majority.

    Rather I think the delegates will coalesce around several national candidates: Jindal, Sen. Rand Paul, Gov. McDonnell and maybe Sen. Rubio. One of them will win. It will not be Jeb Bush.

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Tom White Says:

Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

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