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Election Reflections: June 2015 Virginia Primaries

It has become a classic battle here in Virginia in Primary Season on the Republican side of the spectrum.And it goes by many names.

Conservatives vs RINO’s.

TEA Party vs Establishment.

Fresh Ideas vs Career Politicians.

Good vs Evil.

And here in Virginia we have two kinds of Conservatives, especially in the Primaries.

Verbal conservatives vs Constitutional Conservatives.

Everybody claims to be Conservative in a Republican Primary. But primary voters tend to be the more hard core political class. Political junkies if you will. Most citizens are not interested in voting in the primary elections. When I voted yesterday there was a long line of cars that looked like a Presidential Election year at the High School where I vote.

But it turned out that most of them were picking up their kids from school. I was voter # 90 at about 2 PM. Sad.

But yesterday was a big day for the Constitutional (true) Conservatives. The establishment held some seats, but there is no mistaking the Conservative trend in Republican Primary voters that has been building for a few years.

So let’s look at the significant races and see what they tell us. There were really only a few races that were both interesting and potentially significant.

House of Delegates

Some area races yesterday were no doubt interesting to some in the local area, but from a Constitutional Conservative’s perspective the race featuring Susan Stimpson against Speaker Bill Howell was the featured race. Howell is one of the Verbal Conservatives. That is, he talks the talk but is a tax and spend liberal Progressive. The true Conservatives were hoping for a victory here sending Howell into retirement, but it was not to be. Howell has amassed a lot of power and money as Speaker. And that was hard to overcome. And Stimpson had some internal struggles within her campaign, but that is not unexpected going against the powerful Speaker of the House.

Howell held his seat and Virginian’s will be subjected to his tax and spend leadership for another term.

Virginia State Senate

District 11 was a stunning upset. 24 year career politician Steve Martin outspent the two challengers by a massive amount. Martin spent $574,930 and lost. Challenger Amanda Chase spent the least – only $56,309 and won! It is hard to comprehend outspending your opponent 10 to 1 and losing by a pretty significant margin of nearly 6% by a first time candidate. Chase was also outspent by last place challenger Barry Moore, but only by $15,000.

It should be mentioned here that Amanda Chase was the only candidate in the primary to receive the endorsement of this blog. A blog endorsement requires a unanimous vote. And in a primary, it is not unusual for the politically diverse writers at Va Right! to not find unanimous agreement on the candidates. But Chase did. (And you know she’s a Mom!) And Chase is also a grassroots Constitutional Conservative and by any measure this is a pickup for the grassroots Conservative and anti Establishment activists. And I also believe that if this were a two way race that Martin would have been handed a crushing defeat as the “Not Steve Martin” vote was almost 60%.

Steve Martin was an establishment politician that had a good voting record by most measures, but 24 years is too long for a Citizen Legislator. And his establishment entrenchment was eventually to be his downfall. His last place finish in the recent Convention in his bid to be the Republican Lt. Governor candidate was a strong indicator that it was time to retire.

I wish Senator Martin the best and thank him for his service.

 

District 12 was another blow for the Verbal Conservatives. Constitutional Conservatives see Bill Janis as an Eric Cantor / Ray Allen operative and someone who would pave the way for the return of the Cantor machine in the not too distant future. But a Janis loss here was yet another tire coming off the Cantor-mobile. And while my personal preference and the best Constitutional Conservative in any race this year Vince Haley came in a disappointing 3rd place, the winner Siobhan Dunnavant is not a part of the Ray Allen / Eric Cantor machine. At least that is what her Campaign told me.

Dunnavant spent a lot of money given to her by tax and spender Walter Stosch as well as her brother. During the campaign a number of troubling policy positions came to light. Dunnavant met with Democrats and the Dems claim she was considering a run as a Democrat. And they also claim that she favors Medicaid expansion or at least the Stosch “lipstick on a pig” Medicaid expansion he called “Marketplace Virginia” – essentially Medicaid Expansion in Camouflage.

Dunnavant also failed to satisfy the NRA with a response or Virginia’s top Gun Right’s group the VCDL. And she was silent on guns on the campaign trail. Gun owners should be very concerned on Dunnavant’s plans for 2nd Amendment issues.

At the end of the day, a lot of people like Dunnavant as a doctor. And she has delivered an untold number of babies (and we all like babies!) into the world. And I am sure a lot of her votes were cast by her patients who probably voted in a primary for the first time yesterday.

So the jury is still out on Dunnavant but in as far as the Cantor / Allen machine, a blow was struck with another Janis loss. Cantor supported Janis’ run as an Independent that led to the election of a Democrat in the Henrico Commonwealth’s Attorney race in 2011. And when you consider that there was no more liberal Republican in the Senate than Walter Stosch, it is hard to imagine that Dunnavant could be worse than Stosch. The same, maybe. But not worse.

So this was a victory in so far as the Cantor / Allen machine came up empty. And with two losses in a row, Bill Janis’ political career is probably history.

Conclusion

So Constitutional Conservatives picked up a couple of wins. Amanda Chase and a defeat (again) of the Cantor machine making a possible Cantor bid for Governor in 2017 a bit of a steeper hill. And less money in Ray Allen’s pocket.

The Brat Pack – the Dave Brat supporters who turned out for Vince Haley have no reason to hang their heads. The 12th Senate District in Virginia is a very Liberal Republican district. Oppression under Walter Stosch for 32 years has given them a bad case of Stockholm Syndrome. They have not learned that higher taxes and welfare will only harm Virginia and the ones those programs aim to help are worse off in Walter’s hammock. If you look at the map of voters who understand Liberty, look to Hanover. Haley took Hanover by storm. People that “get it” got it. The issue is a complete misunderstanding of Conservationism. The Constitutional kind.

So last night was a win for Constitutional Conservatives all in all. We know we can’t win them all, but I’ll take the net win.

True Conservatism continues to build.

 

About Tom White

Tom is a US Navy Veteran, owns an Insurance Agency and is currently an IT Manager for a Virginia Distributor. He has been published in American Thinker, currently writes for the Richmond Examiner as well as Virginia Right! Blog.

Tom lives in Hanover County, Va and is involved in politics at every level and is a Recovering Republican who has finally had enough of the War on Conservatives in progress with the Leadership of the GOP on a National Level.

8 Responses to “Election Reflections: June 2015 Virginia Primaries”

  1. Janine Woods
    Twitter:
    says:

    Vince Haley won Hanover. Look at the results by precincts.

  2. Shelley M. says:

    The big losers of Yesterday’s election? The Repubican Voters of the 12th District who now have a RINO candidate- Dr. Stolle Dunnavant from Virginia Beach- former State Senator Ken Stolle’s sister.
    Senators Stolle, Stosch, and Watkins (R for RINO) taxed and spent Virginia into DEBT all those years the three of them ran the state senate together.

    The Quid Pro Quo for all that political cronyism? Stosch supporting Stolle’s sister Stolle Dunnavant with his endorsement and warchest and Constant Contact List after 32 years of collection.

    Stosch’s long time aid- Karla Boughey- worked hard to elect Dunnavant. Wanna Bet who gets to keep her job?

    Dr. Dunnavant violated HIPPA and used the database from her OB-GYN’s practice to send out campaign letters to her patients. Where’s the VA Medical Society screaming about this? Silence– they all donated to her.

    Democratic voters turned out in droves to the polls to vote for her yesterday.

    Women told poll workers yesterday who showed up at the polls with their babies and kids- I didn’t know this was a Republican Primary- I just came to vote for my doctor.

    Conservatives LOST BIG TIME YESTERDAY. Stosch supported Medicaid Expansion in VA- Stolle Dunnavant will vote for it, too. Just watch.

  3. Kelly Minor says:

    The Poster Child for Term Limits in Virginia is Walter Stosch.

    What he did to the voters of the 12th District yesterday is reprehensible.

    The Republican Voters did not choose their State Senator yesterday. Walter Stosch Crowned the Princess in his own Coronation Ceremony-

    ( Stolle Dunnavant’s staff at HCA refer to her as “The Princess”)

    With 32 years in office and the power of the retiring incumbent’s warchest from the lobbyists and Constant Contact list from long time aid Karla Boughey– he gave his seat to another Virginia political DYNASTY— The Stolle Family, Stosch’s long time ally in his TAX AND SPEND legacy in the Virginia Senate.

    Walter Stosch should be tarred and feathered on the steps of the Capitol.

    He elected a Democrat in Sheep’s Clothing who will support Medicaid Expansion in Virginia- “OBAMACARE” —- for the stupid Dunnavant voters in Henrico who don’t know that MarketPlace is Code for ObamaCare.

  4. Mrs. Powel's conscience says:

    Not so fast Mr. White.

    Based on the comments posted above- Congressman Brat now has a dilemma.

    He refused to endorse a conservative candidate in the primary- pledging to support the Republican nominee in November.

    Is he going to endorse a Tax and Spend RINO Republican Dr. Stolle Dunnavant?

    HIs grassroots supporters might have a thing or two to say about that.

    The plot thickens.

  5. Kim Singhas says:

    Hanover County is Vince Haley Country-

    Vince Haley, a true constitutional conservative, will one day be elected Governor or US Senator from the Commonwealth of Virginia. For those voters who didn’t have the opportunity to hear Vince speak at the many community forums, he is reminiscent of Ronald Reagan with his passionate and awe inspiring conservatism.

    He is an up and coming Rock Star for the conservative movement in Virginia.

    Keep an eye on Vince- a new generation of conservative leadership in the Republican Party.

    Kim Singhas
    Hanover County

  6. Robert Shannon says:

    Excellent points all ! Allow me two other observations to include in the analysis.

    First , the Chester Patriots deserve some well earned credit, I know these guys and how hard they have worked in Chesterfield to move the rock. This is one of the original groups formed at the beginning of the Patriot movement and Ms. Chase has been the beneficiary of their quiet diligent efforts. Thank you to the Chester Patriots.

    Mentioned above is the concept of term limits and the benefits that would derive from placing this measure on Virginia’s books. The “power” that accrues to these chairs is only possible because of our inaction . If the Patriot movement wants to do something that is actually effective then we must recognize the wisdom in collectively banding together and insisting that the do nothing G.A pass Referendum Reform which would allow Virginians to get done what 15 other states have done—-pass term limits—AND ALL 15 BY REFERENDUM. Of the remaining 35 that would have to do this ( term limits ) through their respective legislative bodies —NOT 1 HAS DONE SO.

    Put term limits in place and you have no Howell, Stosch or Martin. It is that simple. It only requires some strong leadership and coordination, sadly lacking in the movement that has been hijacked by some folks with either no leadership skill set or questionable motives.

    Until then we suffer each session listening to members like Del. Peace crow about ” getting the State song changed” If term limits were in place delegates like this would be finishing their “public service”

    Bob Shannon

  7. Mary S. says:

    Vince Haley was the only candidate in the 12th district senate race to pledge to term limit himself.

    Voters just don’t understand that after serving 32 years in the senate, Walter Stosch served the donor class and lobbyists and not his constituents. HIs office didn’t return phone calls or emails from his constituents. When we opposed Land Application of Sludge in Hanover County, Stosch’s office IGNORED us.

    Conservative Hanover County hasn’t had any representation from Stosch in the state senate in years- he just used our heavily Republican precincts for re-election in the increasingly Democratic Blue Henrico County 12th District.

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    Tom White Says:

    Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

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