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Fox News Poll Another Skewed Pro Hillary Poll – +9 Democrats

So how do you drive public opinion with a poll?

The Fox News Poll report does it like this:

Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump has increased to seven points, as more than half of voters say he is not qualified to be president.

That’s according to a just-released national Fox News Poll of likely voters.

Clinton receives 45 percent to Trump’s 38 percent.  Libertarian Gary Johnson is at 7 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein gets 3 percent.  Last week, Clinton was up by two points in the four-way contest (44-42 percent).

So, the news that Fox wants you to hear is that last week in their poll, Clinton was up by just 2 points. But what they don’t report and you have to dig to find (here are the poll internal numbers) is that while Clinton was up by 2 points a week ago and is now up by 7 points is the real story.

Last week Fox polled 2% more Democrats than Republicans (41% to 39%) and this week, they polled 9% more Democrats than Republicans (45% Democrats to 36% Republicans).

Imagine that.

So what this poll tells us is that if you ask more Democrats than last week who they are voting for, Hillary gets more votes.

So between the two polls, Hillary benefited from Fox News asking 7% more Democrats who they were going to vote for than last week.

You know what this poll really says? Hillary only gained 5 points in spite of adding 7% more Democrats. She actually has gone down in the polls, if they were apples to apples.

See for yourself. Below is a screenshot of the poll. You have to dig down to page 22 out of 62 pages to find the Demographics. (Link to all 62 pages).

Look at the chart below. The Likely Voters for the most recent poll sampled 45% Democrats. This is the highest Democrat sample of the 11 polls listed. Notice the Republican sample size of 36% is the lowest sample of Republicans out of the 11 polls shown.

Shame on Fox News. This is neither fair nor balanced.

fox-poll-10-12

 

About Tom White

Tom is a US Navy Veteran, owns an Insurance Agency and is currently an IT Manager for a Virginia Distributor. He has been published in American Thinker, currently writes for the Richmond Examiner as well as Virginia Right! Blog.

Tom lives in Hanover County, Va and is involved in politics at every level and is a Recovering Republican who has finally had enough of the War on Conservatives in progress with the Leadership of the GOP on a National Level.

9 Responses to “Fox News Poll Another Skewed Pro Hillary Poll – +9 Democrats”

  1. MicahStone says:

    “Fox News Poll Another Skewed Pro Hillary Poll – +9 Democrats”
    —the +9 is an UNDERESTIMATE of the votes by DEAD PEOPLE and ILLEGALS !!!!!

  2. mary says:

    That makes perfect sense all of trump supporter needs to see this I just new something wasn’t right. I new Hillary couldn’t Be ahead’ to many people cant stand her.

  3. RB says:

    Do the Fox News polls not disclose the numbers of people polled based on sex, race, age, and education? I’m looking at the latest poll released on Oct. 18 and it polled 43% Dems & 38% Rep — but it doesn’t show how many men, women, blacks, whites, etc. were polled.

    I find this deceptive. The poll clearly broke those polled down by race, sex, etc. because many of the results are broken down by those percentages. But overall I cannot find where it shows overall stats.

    Any reason they wouldn’t release number of men, women, etc?

    Thanks

    • Tom White says:

      They often hide the internal numbers, or don’t publish them at all. This year, overall, the cross-tabs data has been available far more than the last 2 presidential elections. In 2012 I emailed the polling firms and asked for their raw numbers. Some sent them to me, and others claimed that they were proprietary. If they hide the numbers, I assume there is something they don’t want us to see. And I do not believe that poll.

      I published a story 4 years ago about one well known polling company that reported the number of Republicans and Democrats incorrectly. Their poll was actually skewed a good bit more than they reported after you do the math. the post was 100% backed up with the math from their raw data. And for my trouble, rather than admit they “made a mistake” and correct the error, I got a letter from a Law Firm in New York threatening to take me to court for damaging their reputation. Of course I would win, but how many 5tens of thousands of dollars would it cost me? They said they sent a certified letter, but I never received it. After a couple of months they contacted me by email. The election was over and I looked and they had gone back and corrected their math error. So I took down the post.

      Were they intentionally fudging the numbers? I believe they were. But what can one person do?
      Tom White recently posted…Looks Like the End of the Bromance Between Jack Berry and the VR BloggerMy Profile

  4. Videoman says:

    So….. Yeah…. Maybe math isn’t your thing. The methodology is to call random people. How many come up one way or another is random. Sometimes it will be off in one way or another on some demographic. This is why you follow averages. And the averages show that the American people are smart enough not to elect a con man.

    • Tom White says:

      Math really IS my thing. Navy Nuclear Engineer, Computer Engineer, etc. The calls are anything but random. Look at the internals on most polls. They call numbers in certain regions and mix inner city with rural areas. And the numbers you see are usually “weighted”. Which means that they use the actual raw data and run it through a formula to extrapolate the poll sample that they consider representative of the electorate. Usually, they go by the last similar election. Obama won in 2008 with a mix of +7 Democrats and in 2012 he was +6 Democrats. The LA Times and Rasmussen are weighting the polls around +4 Democrats for Hillary. This is less than what Obama actually received and given the lack of enthusiasm for Clinton, that assumption seems reasonable to me. Perhaps even too generous.

      So when I see polls that are +11 or +16 for Democrats, I am 100% positive that will not happen and the poll is garbage.And do you know what you get when you average a bunch of garbage polls designed to influence opinion rather than measure it? You get a garbage average. On top of that, many are polling Independents at below 20%. Trump is doing better with Indy’s than Hillary. Historically, Independents are around 30%. Many of Trump’s voters do not consider themselves D’s or R’s. And they are being excluded in droves. And many haven’t voted for years because there has been nobody to vote for in their opinion. So when the poll tries to determine if you are a likely voter, the only ones that are included at this point in the election cycle, one of the most popular ways to determine this is to ask who you voted for in the last 2 presidential elections. Many Trump voters did not vote, so they are being disregarded.

      And if you look at the MoE – the Margin of Error – in the polls and you see a +-5 with Hillary leading by 7, that means that Trump could be leading by as much as 3 points. The difference between +5 and -5 is 10 points.

      I have watched and analyzed polls and trends for many years. Most polls recently try to influence opinion by manipulating the numbers. But they all want to be close on their last poll or two. News people often say the polls are tightening as election day draws near. But what really happens is that polling firms stop the wild skews towards Democrats and settle in on what the believe the numbers should REALLY be.

      Leave the polls to us mathematicians and statisticians. Clearly you are out of your depth here.
      Tom White recently posted…Looks Like the End of the Bromance Between Jack Berry and the VR BloggerMy Profile

      • RB says:

        Thanks for this response (and your response to my post above). The commenter clearly wasn’t interested in learning about why these polls are inaccurate. He just didn’t the fact you may be correct.

        On a slightly different note, I wonder whether polls ever do influence elections. It’s hard to think they do when it comes to presidential elections in a two-party system. How many people (who support Trump or were thinking about or planning on voting for him) could see a headline such as “Hillary Leads Trump By 10% in New National Poll” and thereafter decide there’s no longer any point in supporting Trump or voting for him?

        In an incumbent election with run-of-the-mill politician-type candidates, such a headline may indeed be enough to keep someone from voting on election day. If someone truly believes there is no way that there candidate will win, then I guess it could make sense for that person to forego voting. But this election is so much different in so many ways, I think the purposefully inaccurate polls do nothing other than energize Trump’s supporters. Similarly, I think the polls could have the effect of dissuading some of Hillary’s supporters from voting.

        I have seen many Democrats arrogantly boasting about what a landslide the election will be in favor of Hillary. Most major news sites have articles and who sections of their websites dedicated to explaining why Hillary will win and how much she’s going to win by. Then these polls come out and reassure the uninformed voters.

        It’s pretty obvious that Hillary doesn’t have an enthusiastic base. Her support doesn’t even compare to Trump’s support. So when it comes to the motivation someone needs to vote, Trump has a big advantage.

        I think you’re right about the polls getting closer together as election day draws near. Since the polls change most when Trump does something that PC culture deems inappropriate, it seems that polling companies are just taking advantage of the opportunity to try and influence society. I.e., the infamous 2005 video that came out — the polling companies likely used it as a trigger event to almost shame people into not supporting Trump (for example, by forcing the polls to show increased support for Hillary, the American citizen is left with the impression/belief that Trump’s 2005 comments were so bad that millions of his fellow citizens could no longer support Trump or were finally persuaded to support Hillary; the shame/pressure would come by making Trump supporters less likely to show or voice their support in public for fear that people will be shocked and appalled they didn’t disavow Trump following his barbaric/treasonous/bigoted/sexist/etc./etc. comments.

        Sorry for the rant. This stuff is just very interesting.

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Tom White Says:

Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

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