Newt Gingrich was eliminated from the possibility of having his name on the Virginia Republican Presidential Primary ballot for 2012.
Virginia requires at least 10,000 signatures which must include 400 from each Congressional District.
Mitt Romney and Ron Paul remain as the only candidates whose name will appear on the ballot in the Republican Presidential Primary.
This news was released a few hours ago as State GOP workers counted well into the wee hours.
This dramatically changes the landscape of the primary. With the early state primaries now required to appropriate delegates in relation to the vote, meaning these will not be “winner take all” primaries, it will make a big difference to some candidates who failed to qualify in Virginia. They will not be able to pick make up any ground in Virginia.
And for the many Virginians hoping for a “not Mitt” candidate, they will not have a choice in the primary. Ron Paul has a strong base of support, but he does not appeal to true Conservatives. Paul’s liberal views on foreign policy and drugs are seen by many as radical, irresponsible and dangerous. Ron Paul is probably the only Republican candidate that mainstream voters, particularly Republicans and Conservatives, will not “hold their nose” and vote for. Many believe that Obama would be preferable. The Devil we know. They won’t vote for Obama, but they also won’t vote for Paul, should he be the Republican nominee. They will either stay home or consider a third party candidate, which opens an interesting door.
A third party candidacy by someone like Donald Trump has no chance of success against a Republican and Obama. Unless that Republican happens to be Ron Paul. While any third party run will almost certainly ensure a second term for Obama, someone like Donald Trump would probably stand a chance, albeit small, to defeat Obama. And would probably come in second with Paul a distant third. I really see no way at all that Ron Paul could possibly defeat Obama. With most of the conservatives refusing to vote for Paul, and virtually none voting for Obama, a run by a Donald Trump might give them enough incentive to vote, as opposed to letting Obama simply defeat Paul in a landslide.
Apologies to the Ron Paul supporters who think Paul actually has a chance to win. Most of his supporters assume that Conservatives will vote for Paul if there is no other option. But they underestimate the Republican and conservative voters. Paul will get no more than 25% of the vote in a head to head match-up with Obama. If that.
Right now, Paul is averaging about 40.5% to Obama’s 48.2%. But the focus has never been on Ron Paul. And it has destroyed every candidate as they rose to the top. One by one. Drip by drip.
And Ron Paul has a big problem that is about to explode. One that he and his supporters don’t want to talk about.
Ron Paul is perceived as a Jew Hater. Now, I’m not accusing him of being anti-Semitic. I am simply reporting the perception. He published a newsletter a few years back that is the topic of this post.
So now, for Virginia, the choice for Conservatives has been per-determined. Republicans will rally around Mitt Romney, who, for most, is a “nose holding” alternative to either Obama or Paul.
Prediction: Mitt Romney will win Virginia. Ron Paul will fail to pick up any additional support outside of his base. Republicans will show up and vote for Romney in the Virginia Primary as the only option defeat Obama in 2012.
(Again, for the Paul supporters, this is simply an honest analysis of the Republican and Conservative point of view. You will disagree, of that I am certain. But by the time the primary rolls around, Ron Paul will have been thoroughly dissected in the media. If you think the hell-storm that hit the other fallen candidates was bad, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet! Just sayin’.)