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High Noon in Virginia

I received this post from a person who wants to be identified as a “Trump Voter in Virginia” and I find it eloquent and thought-provoking so here it is:


In looking at the election numbers, and I know that off-year elections have lower turn outs, if the Gillespie campaign had run solid on the Trump ideas could the Republican candidate have attracted significant numbers to his side? I would like to believe he would have.

In 2016, Trump received 1,769,443 votes in Virginia. In this year’s governor’s election, Gillespie received 1,174,650 a difference of 594,793 (Trump difference). Northam defeated Gillespie by a total of 233,179 votes. So, on the theory that there were more votes out there – from the Trump voters, all Gillespie needed was approximately 40% of the Trump difference. Since the Republican sweep in 2009, there has not been a Republican in state wide office at either the state or federal level. Maybe, as an aside, the 3rd party persons ruined a few elections in the past, but not this year; so now, what, if anything, since 2009 has been shown from the Republicans that they have grown the electorate in their favor (assuming illegal voters and former felons don’t vote overwhelmingly Republican)?

Like it or not, believe it or not, Mr. Trump, President Trump I should say, has forever changed politics, especially in Virginia. Perhaps Republicans got shellacked this year because of the Trump presidential victory, but the Democrats did not keep it a secret that they despised him and were motivated to beat back any and all things Republican. Republicans at every level will need to not take any election for granted anymore that they are safe.

But now it is high noon in Virginia.

It is not a showdown between Republicans and Democrats but between the heart and soul of the Republican Party. In the last year, with the trifecta hold on both Houses of Congress and the White House, the Republican Party itself appeared to thwart the ideas of the Trump presidency. It appeared that Gillespie ran his campaign in accord with that national Republican “thwartation” by shunning the Trump image and the Trump supporters (he made it clear) across the board that he was “A governor for all Virginians” except Trump Virginians. It appears that 594,793 Trump voters did not want to reward the party of thwartation. Reflectively, I would like to believe that a vast portion of those 594,793 voters were just as motivated as the democrats this year – but they were personally put off due to the lack of a promise of anything that resembled something worth to vote for.

Gillespie didn’t need to promise to Make Virginia Great Again – but he should have made it clear that he could have made it a lot better than it has been and to have shown us the ways that it would look like by at least showing respect for the President of his Party. Unfortunately, the big blue darkness that has crept up on the steps of the State House in Richmond will soon open the door to a majority if at one minute past high noon the heart, soul and will of the Virginia Republican Party is lying dead in the dust. I hope that that is not the case.

About Elwood Sanders

Elwood "Sandy" Sanders is a Hanover attorney who is an Appellate Procedure Consultant for Lantagne Legal Printing and has written ten scholarly legal articles. Sandy was also Virginia's first Appellate Defender and also helped bring curling in VA! (None of these titles imply any endorsement of Sanders’ views)

5 Responses to “High Noon in Virginia”

  1. Lawrence Wood says:

    I’ve done a somewhat detailed analysis of the 2016 and 2017 statewide races Trump/Clinton and Gillespie/Northam with the state vote broken down into three tiers – large, secondary and small vote generating counties. My interest was to normalize the raw vote counts by using percentages to see if there actually WAS a radical swing in actual tier vote percentages for Democratic vs Republican candidates irrespective of the actual turnout levels. I won’t bore you with the details as I have already posted them in the two main blogs that are the central heart of the “it’s all Trumps fault” rational of state political spin. If your interested they are there.

    BUT the conclusion might interest you. That conclusion is that there was LESS than 1.5% percentage total normalized variation for tier 1 and 2 across both the 2016 and 2017 races. In all cases where this small variation existed it was a plus posited in the Trump candidacy advantage! If there was a negative Trump factor working here this data doesn’t demonstrate it.

    If you look only at a handful of individual county vote profiles and are selective in what and how you pick you can generally build a case for just about anything. Looking at the total picture not so much. Are these tier percentage breakouts the new state vote profile going forward unless something is done to radically shift the base? I have my suspicions but time will tell.

    Is Trump the main analytic variable driving the model? Highly unlikely but people will always have their political positions to grind. There is one undeniable fact though and that is Virginia is a blue state that voted against not just Trump, BUT Romney and McCain and Ed Gillespie well as. Makes the Trump boogeyman scenario a hard spin to follow accompanied with the fact the data fails to support it as well. Every political cycle spent on this myth is a cycle wasted from focusing on real solutions to attempt to get the party back in the game.

  2. Big Al says:

    John Fredericks? You reading this buddy? Send it to #NEVER TRUMPER Chris Saxmon and tell him he is dead wrong that it WAS TRUMP’s fault Gillespie lost. Tell him to SHUT UP about it.

  3. Gene the Populist says:

    Using this same kindergarten logic, Hillary received 1,981,473 votes to Trump’s 1,769,443. So, if needed the Democrats still had more votes available than the Republicans.

    For 7 years, Republicans lied about what they were going to do with Obamacare. As a lawyer, you know that if a witness tells one lie on the stand, their entire testimony can be considered a lie. So goes the Republican Party.

    Call me what you like Sandy, I’m an Independent. Republicans cannot win without my vote. Trump made Virgina dark blue. Tim Kaine lost last Tuesday, and so did Comstock. How many others lost last Tuesday?

  4. mr green jeans

    Put on your tinfoil hats! I not speaking to Dems as they keep those on all the time!
    This is really what is going on. It is not fake news now: Media is promoting ignorance of US history.
    Saturday was Veterans Day Nov 11. The “Laying of the Wreath” should have been the focus of our nation durly this solemn event. The major TV Networks should have been carrying this event as matter of national education. However, I checked all 150 stations which are provided to me. Only ONE was carrying the event which honors those that have died for our nation. Clearly the media both print and visual are determined to commit national suicide!

  5. John Carey says:

    I hope the anonymous Trump voter is on to something, but I don’t agree with his assertion that third party candidates spoil or ruin elections for anybody. For what it’s worth, I did vote for Trump last year in the hopes that he would do more to shake up the broken two party system than Gary Johnson or Jill Stein. It appears that our fearless POTUS has succeeded in that endeavor!


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Tom White Says:

Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

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