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How Did My 2014 Senate Predictions from 8/20/2014 Hold Up? I was 17 – 2

During this election cycle I did 2 pretty math intensive analysis of the polls and factored in external factors such as presidential approval, generic ballot and a few other things. I did a third pass at it but did not go back and run the numbers through my computer model.

But my second analysis was pretty darn close. Here is that post.

I determined that there were really just 19 races to watch.

Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, Hawaii, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oregon, Arkansas, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Montana, Kansas, Mississippi, South Dakota, Virginia and West Virginia.

Here was my 8/20/2014 predictions:

Hawaii Update 8/20/2014 – Nothing has changed. Republicans have no chance of picking up this seat.

Result – Democrat win.

Minnesota Update 8/20/2014 – We are still looking at a Franken win, but the race is tightening. Still a safe Democrat seat at this point. Republicans have very little chance of picking up this seat.

Result – Democrat win

Oregon Update 8/20/2014 – Merkley is increasing his lead over Republican Wehby. Trending even more solidly Democrat. Republicans have no chance of picking up this seat.

Result – Democrat win

Virginia Update 8/20.2014 – Warner is increasing his lead against the challenger Gillespie. In a debate between the two, I believe they both lost. Republicans have no chance of picking up this seat.

Result – Democrat win (for now). No one thought this one would be as close as it was.

*Michigan Update 8/20/2014 – This race is very interesting now. Republican Terri Lynn Land has closed the gap and is pretty much even with Democrat Gary Peters. We are moving this to the Toss Up category below.

Result – Democrat win – My later analysis gave this one to the Democrats, but I called it a toss up here, so that is incorrect.

New Hampshire Update 8/20/2014 – Brown is making no progress against incumbent Shaheen despite his name recognition. Democrats will hold this seat.

Result – Democrat win

Alaska Update 8/20/2014 – The Republican primary was yesterday and Sullivan was the winner. In the polls prior to yesterday, Democrat incumbent Begich had a slight lead in head to head polls vs Sullivan. These polls almost always tighten after the primary victor is declared and I expect this one to close and trend towards Republican Sullivan. Oil and energy are big issues in Alaska and I expect Sullivan to attack the Democrat with Obama’s desire to end the use of oil and coal. Still a toss up but I expect to move this to the Republican win column soon.

Result – Republican win but this one is not quite over. More ballots coming in but Republicans will win.

Colorado Update 8/20/2014 – Republican Gardner still has not moved the needle. Still a toss up.

Result – Republican win (another miss)

*Georgia Update 8/20/2014 – Republican David Perdue won the primary and jumps to a lead over Democrat Michelle Nunn – daughter of Sam Nunn. This one is being moved to the Republican victory column.

Result – Republican win

*North Carolina Update 8/20/2014 – Democrat incumbent Hagan continues to lose ground to Republican challenger Tillis. Moving this one to Republican Victory column.

Result – Republican win

Arkansas Update 8/20/2014 – Still a GOP win. Challenger Tom Cotton holds his lead over incumbent Mark Pryor.

Result – Republican win

Iowa Update 8/20/2014 – Still close but Joni Ernst will pull off the win.

Result – Republican win

Louisiana Update 8/20/2014 – Still close but Republican Cassidy will take the seat from Mary Landrieu.

Result – Runoff. I still stand by the Republican victory here.

Montana Update 8/20/2014 – Daines is up even more than last month. Strong GOP win.

Result – Republican win

Kansas Update 8/20/2014 – Republican Pat Roberts still up big.

Result – Republican win

*North Carolina Update 8/20/2014 – Democrat incumbent Hagan continues to lose ground to Republican challenger Tillis. Moving this one to Republican Victory column.

Result – Republican win

South Dakota Update 8/20/2014 – Republican Mike Rounds in a landslide.

Result – Republican win (Rounds won 50% to 30%)

 

West Virginia Update 8/.20/2014 – Republican Shelley Moore Capito up big over Democrat Natalie Tennant. A Republican victory still in store here.

Result – Republican win

 

So what was the tally?

Out of 19 contested races I predicted 17 winners correctly. I had 2 as toss-ups that the Republicans won, but I can’t count that as a correct pick. And Louisiana is still not done but for now, I will call that correct.

So I picked 17 out of 19 races correctly.

 

About Tom White

Tom is a US Navy Veteran, owns an Insurance Agency and is currently an IT Manager for a Virginia Distributor. He has been published in American Thinker, currently writes for the Richmond Examiner as well as Virginia Right! Blog.Tom lives in Hanover County, Va and is involved in politics at every level and is a Recovering Republican who has finally had enough of the War on Conservatives in progress with the Leadership of the GOP on a National Level.

One Response to “How Did My 2014 Senate Predictions from 8/20/2014 Hold Up? I was 17 – 2”

  1. Janine Woods
    Twitter:
    says:

    You da man Tom!

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    Tom White Says:

    Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

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