I found this analysis to be useful as to what happens in the vote. Here’s part of the conclusion:
Electoral Calculus said that Ukip would win enough MPs to form a Government if it won around 34 per cent of the vote.
It added: “The figures suggest UKIP would get a majority in the House of Commons when its share of the vote is around 34 per cent. At lower Ukip support levels, the Conservatives are slightly hurt by their rise, but Labour is relatively unaffected.”
Now, UKIP got about 25% in the last municipal elections. In municipal elections, the percentage is of course lower than in a General Election. Here is the BBC’s projection of the turnout in the next General Election:
The BBC’s projected national share of the vote put Labour in the lead with 29% of the vote and the Conservatives in second place with 25%, UKIP in third place with 23% of votes and the Lib Dems fourth with 14%.
The calculator analysis says 23% is not enough for even one seat in Parliament. But ten more points and UKIP forms a majority government. No more Cameron. No more Clegg. No more Labour. Yes to more than a referendum. It would be revolutionary. I want to sign up to help the new PM Farage implement secession from the superempire.
How to get the ten percent? The theme should be just like the NO movie. Yes I am still serious. Happiness will come to Britain when she is free from the EU. Can again sell a pound of meat. Can again deport a terrorist or other criminal immigrant without pesky eurocrats and judges saying no. Can again drive a lorry or a taxicab or sell stock or run a small business without the silly UK regulations. Happy people again in the UK! It can be done. Young people can be attracted to the message of liberty – the Ron Paul campaign showed that. Women can be attracted. No more anti-gay stuff; but protect the rights of churches to proclaim their message. Show happy believers with a cross, a star of David, other symbols. It ought to be easy to show all sorts of EU horror stories. One is right here: One EU leader is frank about his intentions: The United States of Europe:
The president of the European Commission [Jose Manuel Barroso] has fanned the flames of British debate over EU membership by insisting that fiscal union in the eurozone will lead to “intensified political union” for all 27 member states.
“We want to put all the elements on the table, in a clear and consistent way, even if some of them may sound like political science fiction today. They will be reality in a few years’ time.”
Mr Barroso’s announcement that he will set out plans for a European federation next spring, before elections to the European Parliament in May 2014, will further deepen Conservative divisions over the EU.
All UKIP needs is ten more percent. TEN PERCENT. To win the Parliament. Time for strategic planning to get the ten percent. For UKIP’s fight is our fight. The time is short.