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I’m Not Buying the Utah Poll by Y2 Analytics Showing Cruz Up +24

Y2 Analytics did a poll in Utah showing Ted Cruz up by 24%. I have Cruz winning Utah, but I don’t think he will get 50% of the vote. The poll shows Kasich in second place with 29% of the vote and Trump 3rd at 11%. I believe the order of finish will be Cruz, Kasich and Trump, but Trump will get more than 11% and Kasich won’t get 20%.

In reading the story in the Salt Lake Tribune, it mentions Scott Riding. Looking up som information on who this guy is, Linked-in says he is:

 

Scott Riding

Managing Partner at Y2 Analytics

Salt Lake City, Utah
Research
Current
  1. Y2 Analytics
Previous
  1. Jeb 2016,
  2. Y2 Analytics,
  3. TargetPoint Consulting
Education
  1. Brigham Young University

Up until last month Scott worked for Jeb Bush. And taking a look at his Twitter feed, he has a lot of pro Bush tweets and re-tweets and a lot of anti-Trump tweets and re-tweets. Natural for a guy working for Jeb Bush, I suppose. But he began re-tweeting pro Cruz tweets on February 24, just 4 days after Jeb suspended his campaign.

So this guy that conducted the poll is anti-Trump, a former Bush employee and prior to this poll, found anything positive about Cruz worth re-tweeting.

The SLT report also states:

Scott Riding with Y2 Analytics said it appears that a bulk of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio’s supporters went to Cruz after he dropped out earlier this week.

“It is fascinating to see how close Cruz is to wrapping it up,” he said. “It is also surprising how discouraged Republicans are with the direction of the national party.”

The poll found that 81 percent of respondents said the Republican Party had gotten off on the wrong track and 64 percent said Trump would make the party weaker if he became the nominee.

Only 29 percent of the respondents promised to vote for Trump in a general election, while 25 percent said they would write in another candidate, 15 percent said they’d vote for a third-party candidate and 7 percent said they’d back the Democrat.

“It is fascinating to see how close Cruz is to wrapping it up”.
Seriously? has Riding looked at the delegate count? And the remaining delegates?

And the last line of the story tells me a lot

Y2 Analytics did not poll in Utah’s Democratic caucus.

You don’t say.

Utah is a “winner take all” state, but only if one candidate gets more than 50%. Otherwise, the delegates are split proportionally. And they are split evenly among the candidates who receive more than 15%. With the winner getting the benefit of the rounding.

So if Cruz gets >50%, he will win all 40 delegates. However, if he does not hit the 50% mark, the delegates are evenly divided among all of the candidates with at least 15% of the total. Which means if Cruz gets 49% and Trump gets 15% and Kasich comes in somewhere in between, Cruz will get 14 delegates and Trump and Kasich will get 13 delegates each.

Strange how this poll places Cruz above the magic 50% mark and Trump below the 15% threshold.

I believe we are looking at the 14-13-13 split as all three get above 15% and no one reaches 50%.

Y2 Analytics is, by my research, a partisan polling outfit that was with Jeb Bush until he quit. And there is evidence that they are both Anti-Trump and pro Cruz. It cannot be determined if they were paid to conduct this poll, what the internal data was, how the poll was weighted, what areas were called, etc. etc.

It is entirely possible that this poll was conducted properly and intended to measure, rather than influence voting. But there are far too many partisan attributes to the people conducting the poll to say for sure it is not biased.

You glean from this poll what you will, but I’m not buying it. And I believe that as more polls are releases – and I am sure we will see some tomorrow – we can see if this poll is an outlier or not.

But as it was the only poll released in time for the Sunday Political Shows, I am sure the networks will be buzzing about it.

We will know for sure on Tuesday. Or Wednesday.

 

About Tom White

Tom is a US Navy Veteran, owns an Insurance Agency and is currently an IT Manager for a Virginia Distributor. He has been published in American Thinker, currently writes for the Richmond Examiner as well as Virginia Right! Blog.Tom lives in Hanover County, Va and is involved in politics at every level and is a Recovering Republican who has finally had enough of the War on Conservatives in progress with the Leadership of the GOP on a National Level.

11 Responses to “I’m Not Buying the Utah Poll by Y2 Analytics Showing Cruz Up +24”

  1. Fan Club says:

    Great Article Mr. White and well researched- Original.

    Just goes to solidify what many of us have known for years- the Republican “Zombies” as you call them are allowing the Media and the Political Ruling Class inside the beltway to once again select the GOP nominee so the Liberals can win the presidency.

  2. You’ve assembled some information and speculated how the gaps are filled. All we’re left with is a “this looks fishy”, but you don’t have any hard evidence that the polls are purposefully deceptive. You’re just sowing FUD. Not cool. However, let’s look at your motives.

    It seems to be that you are not that interested in Cruz winning. Could it be that you’re believing an adulterous man who wrote a book about dealmaking, hoping that he won’t cut deals when he’s elected? With such a man, you’re never sure if you can trust him. So any trust is based first in fantasy and second in self-deception.

    • Tom White says:

      Polls can either measure opinion or attempt to sway it. PPP almost always has a (D) after it to indicate they are a Democrat polling outfit. However, they have done a good job at measuring opinion. Not influencing it.

      I stated that this poll could be accurate, however, I have seen comments asking if they used Mitt Romney’s Rolodex. I have never heard of these guys and when I see a Bushy pop up conducting a poll, I am suspicious. What I have said about this poll is that I believe the order is more or less correct, though I see Trump as 2nd. I just do not see Cruz getting 53%. A brand new poll out today is in align with what I believe is going on in Utah. I am not sure who these guys are either but the poll jives with what I said. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ut/utah_republican_presidential_caucus-5765.html

      You are obviously anti Trump. But this is an unbiased opinion based on several other polls. It is possible Cruz could come in at 53% and win all the delegates, but I doubt it. This is a partisan poll and the fact that Bush was not mentioned and they did not poll Democrats while they were at it makes me suspicious about the intent of this poll. But the timing served it’s purpose. The Sunday Talk Shows were all talking about it.
      Tom White recently posted…Ted Cruz May Be Mathematically Eliminated On or Before April 26, 2016 – State by State AnalysisMy Profile

      • Joanne Rupar says:

        Thank you so much for posting this. It makes a lot of sense. I couldn\’t understand how Cruz was that far ahead in Utah. I am so glad I saw your post. Thanks again.

        • Stand with Rand says:

          Cruz may actually be polling well in UTAH because that lunatic Glenn Beck- I was nothing but a drug addict and a drunk until I became a MORMON- is cheerleader in chief now for the Dominionist Cult of Ted and Rafael Cruz.

          Beck is a nationally syndicated radio show with listeners and viewers in the millions. He is devoting his daily 3 hour radio show to electing Rafael Edward Cruz. Beck is a globalist – so go figure.

          • Paulie T says:

            I was and used to subscribe to Glenn Beck\’s The Blaze and now no longer get or even listen to Beck and his clown radio show. Just sit and analyze, while trying to listen to his show, the back and forth BANTER between Beck and the three clowns he constantly goes back and forth with you begin to realize they actually say nothing.
            I agree with Stand with Rand-he is a certified lunatic and the way they jump around on his show reminds one of a drug blown mind.

  3. L Garou says:

    Mormons supporting a failed Canadian evangelical used car salesman.
    Sounds about right..

    • Paulie T says:

      I agree and wonder what or how slick is Cruz when he dips his head and looks out with beedy eyes what he is really thinking !
      You can see him strongly supporting the Trans Pacific Trade Partnership and the five thousand plus page document that Paul Ryan says should not be seen by the general public because it is too secretive for the general public to see.

  4. rogblake says:

    well if you looked even closer you would of noticed some other stuff for instance y2 released this so called poll to other media outlets and they had a date for when polling was taking between the 24 through the 26 of march now i no the rnc has powers but really power to see into the future? and forgot to mention mr Henson the director did you know he was Orrin\’s campaign manager? and he is also a member of the republican national committee like any poll the rnc makes themselves gotta be fair rofl

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  1. […] for Jeb Bush and is an obvious establishment guy showing Cruz above 50% and Trump under 15%. (Read my analysis here.) But a brand new poll out just this morning (Monday May 21, 2016) shows what I believe is a more […]


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Tom White Says:

Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

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