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Is it October 9 yet?  Yes it is in the UK!  And that means – the vote is today!

The by-elections in the seats or constituencies (NOT ridings!) of Clacton and Heywood and Middleton are today.  We should know something by between 6 and 8 Pm tomorrow evening.

So what’s happening, Sandy?

Clacton is likely a solid and maybe a spectacular UKIP win.  Tories will come in second.  Part of this is apparently Douglas Carswell has bonded with his district well in an unusual manner for a British MP and this may be a change in British politics, too.  Less of a party vote and more of a personal vote.

Heywood and Middleton I see as one of three options:

1.  Labour wins big – more than 20% over second place UKIP.

Possible but not likely given turnout is sparse in a by-election and UKIP has the enthusiasm variable nailed down.

2.  Labour wins but very small – 5-8% over second place UKIP.  UKIP wins the moral victory.

Most likely scenario.  This is a strongly held Labour seat for many years.  Some LibDems might vote Labour this time.

3.  UKIP eeks out a small 4-5% (maybe as little as 1-2%) win.  UKIP shocks the British political world again!

Could happen but I think Number 2 is more likely.

But UKIP should be on the march again strong going into the critical Rochester and Strood seat with a late October or early November by-election.  Reckless can win and UKIP needs to get solidly behind its defector.  The kitchen sink will likely be brought down from Scotland to throw at the voters in this district to reject Reckless.

We’ll see tomorrow about dinner hour.  One victory lap with the Union Jack if Clacton is winner and scenario 1 occurs for Heywood and Middleton; TWO victory laps with the aforesaid Union Jack if Clacton is a winner and scenario 2 occurs and SEVERAL VICTORY LAPS if UKIP wins both seats.  We might even play Jerusalem the hymn (it’s found at the end credits of Chariots of Fire or on my iTunes) for this!


About Elwood Sanders

Elwood "Sandy" Sanders is a Hanover attorney who is an Appellate Procedure Consultant for Lantagne Legal Printing and has written ten scholarly legal articles. Sandy was also Virginia's first Appellate Defender and also helped bring curling in VA! (None of these titles imply any endorsement of Sanders’ views)

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Tom White Says:

Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

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