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Latest Politico Poll Shows a 48-48 Tie, but Internal Numbers Show 49-48 for Romney

In looking through the polls, I always check the math. Believe it or not, there are sometimes errors in simple addition as well as more complex issues.

The latest Politico poll writeup states:

DENVER— With just two days to go until Election Day, Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama are tied in the race for president.

A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of 1,000 likely voters — taken Monday through Thursday of this past week — shows the two presidential candidates tied at 48 percent.

And Real Clear Politics used the 48% to 48% tie in their daily average.

However, if you navigate to the internal poll numbers provided by Politico (here) you find on page 5 you find the following answers to question #7:

If you add up the numbers for definitely, probably and lean for each candidate, Romney is up by 1 point, 49 to 48.

But if you look at the polling date here page 92 shows it a tie at 48% each.

Since both of these are weighted and interpreted, there may be a difference due to rounding, but they only give the percentages and total of the raw numbers so we are left speculate if the actual percentages were rounded up for Obama and down for Romney. And either way it is a statistical dead heat within the Margin of error. But I just like to see the actual data and the presentation of the data in agreement.

But there is one little nugget on page 98 that shows some interesting information:

According to Politico, this race is a Romney win unless 100% of the likely voter model they predict turns out.

With the enthusiasm on the Republican side, that may be the most important finding in this poll.


About Tom White

Tom is a US Navy Veteran, owns an Insurance Agency and is currently an IT Manager for a Virginia Distributor. He has been published in American Thinker, currently writes for the Richmond Examiner as well as Virginia Right! Blog. Tom lives in Hanover County, Va and is involved in politics at every level and is a Recovering Republican who has finally had enough of the War on Conservatives in progress with the Leadership of the GOP on a National Level.

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Va Right! Polls

This poll is closed! Poll activity:
start_date 29/06/2014 16:27:48
end_date 19/07/2014 12:00:00
Poll Results:
Who is the Bigger Threat to Virginia's 7th District?

Tom White Says:

Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

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