I think as follows:
Romney/Ryan 347 and Obama/Biden 191
Romney will win: Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Florida, NC, Virginia, Wisconsin, Minnesota (because of the gay marriage initiative and George Will said the same thing), Iowa, Maine district two and Colorado.
Obama will carry Michigan and Nevada.
BUT I also think that Romney/Ryan will carry in a surprise both New Jersey and Connecticut as the Nutmeg State will flip to red on both the Senate and for President, too and New Jersey voters, angry about how the President carried on after Sandy (the hurricane, not the blogger), campaigning around the country while they struggle to rebuild their lives. New York will be a bit closer than expected for the same reasons and also a backlash against the Bloomberg endorsement.
As for third party candidates:
Gary Johnson and the Libertarians will have about 750,000 votes and only because it is a close election. Otherwise it would be twice or three times this much. Johnson will do best in New Mexico and California.
Virgil Goode of the Constitution Party will be in a tight race for fourth with Jill Stein of the Green Party with 150-200,000 votes each. Goode will do best in VA and Stein will do best in California, Oregon and Washington.
Tomorrow, we’ll have Senate races and House races: I think GOP gets control of the Senate and keep the House. But details? Read tomorrow…