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New Poll Shocker: Brown Leads Coakley By 15 Points In Mass. Senate Race

A shocking poll by PajamasMedia has Republican Brown leading Democrat Coakley by 15.4% in the race for “Ted Kennedy’s seat”. But like Virginia and New Jersey Liberals don’t believe it has anything to do with Obama, Health Care, Cap and Trade and Socialism.

Yea, right!

A new poll taken Thursday evening for Pajamas Media by CrossTarget – an Alexandria VA survey research firm – shows Scott Brown, a Republican, leading Martha Coakley, a Democrat, by 15.4% in Tuesday’s special election for the open Massachusetts US Senate seat. The poll of 946 likely voters was conducted by telephone using interactive voice technology (IVR) and has a margin of error of +/- 3.19%.

This is the first poll to show Brown surging to such an extent. A poll from the Suffolk University Political Research Center – published Thursday morning by the Boston Herald, but taken earlier – had Brown moving ahead by 4%.

The special election is to fill the seat held by the recently deceased Edward Kennedy. Kennedy, a Democrat, served in the US Senate for 46 years. A Brown victory could stall legislation supported by the Obama administration, including health care.

About Tom White

Tom is a US Navy Veteran, owns an Insurance Agency and is currently an IT Manager for a Virginia Distributor. He has been published in American Thinker, currently writes for the Richmond Examiner as well as Virginia Right! Blog. Tom lives in Hanover County, Va and is involved in politics at every level and is a Recovering Republican who has finally had enough of the War on Conservatives in progress with the Leadership of the GOP on a National Level.

3 Responses to “New Poll Shocker: Brown Leads Coakley By 15 Points In Mass. Senate Race”

  1. Bigvinu says:

    Brown's lead is probably around 2-3 points (maybe more). But it's a disgrace to this blog and Political wonks in general to post such a misleading and biased poll. I like Scott Brown. I think Scott Brown could win in Massachusetts. But Scott Brown is NOT 15 points ahead.

    As Nate Silver eloquently put it:
    "The polling firm also has almost no track record and the one poll they did issue showed New Hampshire Governor John Lynch with just a 44/38 (+6) approval rating whereas every other pollster in that state shows Lynch at between a +20 and a +43. So, if you account for their roughly 25-point GOP house effect, a poll showing Martha Coakley only 15 points down might be just about the best news she's gotten all week. "

    I think Scott Brown might pull through, and Massachusetts would be very lucky to have an independent minded leader in the Republican Caucus, but if he does win, it wont be anywhere near 15 points.

  2. Tom White says:

    Venu, how exactly is it a disgrace to publish a poll? This is a polling firm from Alexandria, Va which makes it VERY topical to a Virginia Political blog. And Nate Silver failed to point out that the New Hampshire poll also showed Republican voters in NH are against Sarah Palin running for President. Which sort of blows Silver's theory about the bias of this poll away.

    And as I recall, people were saying the same thing about the McDonnell – Deeds polls showing a 15% margin for McDonnell. Turns out it was right on the money.

    But the real point of interest in this particular poll, at least to me, is that it was a 100% robo call. I spent over 10 years as a Senior Engineer for a company (Intervoice) that makes Interactive Voice Machines, interestingly, the company was headquartered in Canton, MA a suburb of Boston and called Perception Technology, then Brite Voice Systems before being bought by Dallas based Intervoice. I don't know if the equipment I used to work on was used, but I do have a lot of interest in IVR's still.

    What I find particularly interesting is the theory that a lot of people may tend to be influenced in their answers by a human. Some, particularly in a heavily Democratic state like Mass. may feel a bit of reluctance to answer they will vote Republican when everyone knows they should be a "good" Democrat. Subconsciously, of course. But they will be more honest to a machine.

    I personally feel the numbers are high and I am probably less positive than you about a Brown victory. After all, this is Massachusetts we are talking about, and "Uncle Teddy's" seat (as my former Boston colleagues used to call him).

    He is also pro-choice but thinks it should be up to each state. As a Conservative, that is a bit hard to swallow for me personally, but if he were pro-life he would not stand a chance. He is against the legislative mess the Democrats forged together with back room deals and bribes, and as abortion is settled law at the Federal level and not likely to come up any time soon, his position on that one issue is moot.

    Brown is no Scozzafava by a long shot. And his election is likely to bring some willingness from Democrats to work with Republicans. But I fear they sill simply bribe Snow or one of the other RINO's to get their 60.

    But I do think this poll is worth mentioning. And relevant. And if their poll turns out to be anywhere close to accurate, I would even consider starting an IVR polling company myself. I have the knowledge and skills to build my own IVR, and it is something I have been considering.

    If Brown wins by double digits, look for my start up announcement.


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Tom White Says:

Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

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