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New Rasmussen Poll Shocker: Trump Leads, Hillary Down to 39%

According to the new Rasmussen Poll:

Hillary Clinton’s post-convention lead has disappeared, putting her behind Donald Trump for the first time nationally since mid-July.

The latest weekly Rasmussen Reports White House Watch national telephone and online survey shows Trump with 40% support to Clinton’s 39% among Likely U.S. Voters, after Clinton led 42% to 38% a week ago. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson now earns seven percent (7%) of the vote, down from nine percent (9%) the previous two weeks, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein picks up three percent (3%) support. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.

What I find interesting with the Rasmussen poll demographics is their ratio of Republicans and Democrats. There are a number of polls using a +10 or more Democrat sample and these are the polls showing Hillary with large single digit leads.

Others that are now showing Hillary in the lead by a couple of points or slightly more are using the “accepted” polling ratio based on the last presidential election. Obama won in 2012 with a +6 margin and in 2008 with a +7.

I can accept the potential accuracy of a poll using the past election demographics, but not when these two elections are so different. The enthusiasm for Donald Trump is apparent. He is filling up large venues with 10,000 plus supporters while Hillary has problems getting a few hundred to show up. And there are reports she has faked crowds with “green screen” techniques like the weatherman uses to superimpose the maps and radar behind him. Snopes claims that is false, but Snopes has been exposed as a left wing group who may not be the independent and non partisan resource they claim to be.

But one obvious fact is that Trump has generated far more excitement than has Clinton. And Rasmussen is using a +4 Democrat model, which is less than Obama actually received in 2008 and 2012. And I think that makes sense. I simply do not see the numbers of Democrats and even Independents turning out for Hillary as they did for Obama. And while the percentage of Blacks voting Democrats will no doubt be high, as usual, I just don’t see the numbers turning out for Hillary as they did for Obama.

And while people follow the polls pretty heavily, I tend to the polls predicting a larger Democrat turnout for Hillary than for Obama simply unbelievable.

Is Rasmussen’s +4 Democrat survey accurate? We won’t know until the election is over. But I think it is more realistic than +6 or even +11.

About Tom White

Tom is a US Navy Veteran, owns an Insurance Agency and is currently an IT Manager for a Virginia Distributor. He has been published in American Thinker, currently writes for the Richmond Examiner as well as Virginia Right! Blog. Tom lives in Hanover County, Va and is involved in politics at every level and is a Recovering Republican who has finally had enough of the War on Conservatives in progress with the Leadership of the GOP on a National Level.

6 Responses to “New Rasmussen Poll Shocker: Trump Leads, Hillary Down to 39%”

  1. robert shannon says:

    In the course of a presentation for our local group on Thursday August 25th I did a little research on polling, paying close attention to the last month and kept my research to Presidential election cycles ( going back to Truman) I also took a close look at the Wilder race here in Virginia. Here is what I learned

    In 1980 the 3rd party candidate Anderson had numbers running as high as 23% two months out—yet finished with just 7%, no states, no electoral votes. While everyone has an opinion I believe in the final days voters came around to understanding either Carter would serve a second term or Reagan would be the new President, the old reliable ” I don’t want to waste my vote” syndrome came into the picture in voters minds. They knew John Anderson didn’t have a chance and did not want Carter any longer as President, giving Reagan the margin with their last minute conversions.

    In the Virginia Governors race Wilder had a 5 point lead during the last month but won in a very tight squeaker. Various analysis have been done as to what happened, why the polls in the last month were so off ( normally the last 30 days polls are pretty accurate).

    The final opinion of some who examined this closely was that many white voters surveyed in the polls , voters who did not want to appear or be accused as racists told pollsters they intended to vote for Wilder, but in fact did not. Is that same thing happening now with voters surveyed consciously aware of how Trump is being beaten about the head and shoulders non stop, and have a ingrained reluctance to admit they are supporting Trump ? I am one that believes that is indeed occurring. We won’t have long to find out.

    Tom’s observation about turnout numbers among certain demographics is also spot on, and will have a major impact in key states.

    Every time the ” Never Trumpers” open their mouths they give Trump a boost in terms of popularity. Voters are sick and tired of being told they don’t know what they are doing by elitists, they are tired of being told what they should think by the neo-cons and the republican turncoats now making handsome livings in DC as lobbyists and consultants and fear their gravy train might be coming to an end. Almost to a man these types are sucking (in some venue ) at the taxpayer teat and loathe the notion that Happy Days just might morph into a ” Oh S___ , I got to go find a real job” I seriously doubt that some middle aged steel worker or auto worker who had his job shipped off shore at the very pinnacle of his/her adult life listens much to Bill Kristol.

    Bob Shannon King William

    • Trump Backers from The Beach says:

      Mr. Shannon:

      Today the Bull Elephant Blog founded by Steve Albertson and his “Conservative Fellowship” donors/supporters Chris Shores, Steve Waters, Rick Boyer, Travis Witt, Daniel Bradshaw, Steve Troxel, Shak HIll, and others as well as the Virginia First Foundation among them published this post by Robert Kenyon:

      http://thebullelephant.com/trump-must-burn/

      Remember this in 2017 when the so called “Conservative Fellowship asks you to support their candidates Bryce Reeves for Lt. Gov and John Adams for AG. Oh and Ed Gillespie has not attended a single Trump event in Virginia to date.

      How are these people still members of the State Central Committee and Republican Party of Virginia under Chairman John Whitbeck’s leadership when they just threw Delegate Dr. Mark Berg off the committee in Frederick County?

      Banana Republic of Virginia

      • lawrence wood says:

        If you read this article by Bull Elephant contributor Robert Kenyon (and believe me it’s painful to wade through it) it comes across as a long and outraged scream in the dark against what he views as the evil forces aligned with Donald Trump against what ever political position those and Mr. Kenyon supporters presumably represent. It’s the throes of a drowning man and his political sinecures disappearing before his very eyes. I have held for some time now that the endless useless, political deadlock represented by the ineffective and secretive SCC should just be disbanded and it’s party rules function simply returned to the party districts across the state. Why vote out the mess one individual at a time just reorganize it out of existence altogether.

  2. An Irish Lass says:

    The Alt Right awakening to support Trump’s Nationalism vs. New World Order Globalist campaign.

    https://voxday.blogspot.com/2016/08/what-alt-right-is.html

    or as Michael Savage taught us “Borders, Language, Culture” matters.

  3. Paul Thiel says:

    Having just returned from a great Myrtle Beach vacation and reading Va. Right blog and Kenyon’s comments on Bull Elephant-after trying not to throw up-I realized why I cancelled all monetary contributions and listening as well to Beck, the Blaze and his three clown act daily show, Levine and now good riddance to Bull Elephant !

    All the criticisms that Trump supporters are mostly uneducated white biggets and must be expunged from the Republican Party really shows the true ignorance of these critics. It is so narrow minded and very very insulting just because we didn’t support their opinions of Ted Cruz.

    As a young businessman during the Jimmy Carter years I had the unfortunate experience, being a new business, to have my operating line of credit tied to the Federal Prime Rate (to those of Bull Elephant)
    who even know what it is, Prime went to 19 percent. My monthly payments went from 12K to 25K and while we survived we continually wondered what was happening at the Federal Reserve and learned how the rate was
    tied to the Money Supply. Today the Money Supply has been totally politicized and basically meaningless
    and I am positive Mr. Cruz, who had his own personal money problems, has no clue how BROKE this country
    is and with his wife tied to Wall Street money interests there was no way to get the Country back on the rails with him in charge. Before you tell me “but he certainly is smart enough to hire the right people”, would there
    be any opposition from his wife’s connections or would some of those same people with a vested interest in
    keeplng things just as they are be put in charge ? The Fed printing 80 billion a month is continuing to exacerbate the problem and believe it or not Trump is the only politician who understands how critical this is.
    But Trump “bankrupted before”-no he made good business decisions that were legal within the law and timely. Although on a much larger scale, does this help him keep The United States solvent ? He truly realizes we cannot keep printing our way back to financial health. We have 125 trillion in unfunded liabilities !

    As for the “gutless wonders” at the Elephant I am not sure where your balls really are?

    Are they where as Bob Shannon writes above “just in fear about losing their gravy train” ? Or did you ever have any ? Bull Elephant or Pussy Elephant

  4. Paul Thiel says:

    By the way ” Bulls”- what does all your brilliance expect to get out of a Hillary victory ?

    Keep it up and there may not be a Country for your man Cruz in four years !

    It is with attitudes like yours that gave rise to the TEA Party !
    Thank God there are TEA Partiers out there !
    The Mechanicsville TEA Party is beginning to grow again quite well.

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Tom White Says:

Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

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