Hillary Clinton’s post-convention lead has disappeared, putting her behind Donald Trump for the first time nationally since mid-July.
The latest weekly Rasmussen Reports White House Watch national telephone and online survey shows Trump with 40% support to Clinton’s 39% among Likely U.S. Voters, after Clinton led 42% to 38% a week ago. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson now earns seven percent (7%) of the vote, down from nine percent (9%) the previous two weeks, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein picks up three percent (3%) support. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.
What I find interesting with the Rasmussen poll demographics is their ratio of Republicans and Democrats. There are a number of polls using a +10 or more Democrat sample and these are the polls showing Hillary with large single digit leads.
Others that are now showing Hillary in the lead by a couple of points or slightly more are using the “accepted” polling ratio based on the last presidential election. Obama won in 2012 with a +6 margin and in 2008 with a +7.
I can accept the potential accuracy of a poll using the past election demographics, but not when these two elections are so different. The enthusiasm for Donald Trump is apparent. He is filling up large venues with 10,000 plus supporters while Hillary has problems getting a few hundred to show up. And there are reports she has faked crowds with “green screen” techniques like the weatherman uses to superimpose the maps and radar behind him. Snopes claims that is false, but Snopes has been exposed as a left wing group who may not be the independent and non partisan resource they claim to be.
But one obvious fact is that Trump has generated far more excitement than has Clinton. And Rasmussen is using a +4 Democrat model, which is less than Obama actually received in 2008 and 2012. And I think that makes sense. I simply do not see the numbers of Democrats and even Independents turning out for Hillary as they did for Obama. And while the percentage of Blacks voting Democrats will no doubt be high, as usual, I just don’t see the numbers turning out for Hillary as they did for Obama.
And while people follow the polls pretty heavily, I tend to the polls predicting a larger Democrat turnout for Hillary than for Obama simply unbelievable.
Is Rasmussen’s +4 Democrat survey accurate? We won’t know until the election is over. But I think it is more realistic than +6 or even +11.