The earlier poll sampled 3% more Democrats than Republicans (33% D’s, 30% R’s) a +3 lean towards Democrats and the latest poll samples 9% more Democrats than Republicans (35% D’s, 26% R’s).
The older poll showed Obama with a 2 point advantage over Romney.
The latest poll shows Obama with a 3 point advantage over Romney despite skewing the poll 6% more Democrat than the October 1 poll.
You don’t really need to be a math major to see that this is not good news for Obama.
After a flurry of polls show Mitt Romney swinging into the lead, in fact, a couple of days ago, the Real Clear Politics average showed every poll falling for Romney (or a tie) and not a single Obama lead.
In the past, when the RCP average got close to showing an advantage for Romney, along would come a Democratic poll like PPP or the WaPo / ABC polls that heavily over sample Democrats to try to make you believe Obama has staged a comeback.
So how accurate is a poll showing Obama with to a 3 point lead over Romney?
Well, if Democrats turn out like they did in 2008 for Obama, this poll would not be very accurate at all. In fact, Democrats would have to almost double the margin of victory in 2012 in order for this poll to be accurate.
Among those polled, 33% claimed to be Democrats and only 22% Republicans. It was slightly closer among Likely Voters – 35% Democrats and 26% Republicans. So the Washington Post / ABC News folks are expecting the turnout this year among Democrats to be less than the 2008 election where 39% were Democrats and 32% Republicans. And they predict a much lower turnout among Republicans this year – expecting only 26% of the voters claiming to be Republicans to come out and vote.
Is that justified?
The poll write up starts off by saying “Rising enthusiasm and declining anxiety mark an energy boost among Mitt Romney’s supporters since he prevailed in the first presidential debate.”
(Note that the higher enthusiasm is among Republicans.)
The good news for Romney is that a poll that over samples Democrats by 9% sees Obama with only a 3 point lead.
And although the poll write up references the preferences of men and women, they do not provide the breakdown of males and females. And likewise for Whites, blacks and other. They obviously know what the breakdown is because they discuss the “gender gap” and percentages of whites polling for Romney, but failed to give the demographic information.
That makes you think they are hiding something.
By comparison, the previous poll by the WaPo / ABC group (released 10/1/2012) polled 33% Democrats and 30% Republicans and found Obama with only a 2 point lead.
The bottom line is that comparing their last poll to their current one actually shows a huge jump for Romney. When the sampled 3% more Democrats prior to the debate, Obama had a 2 point lead. Post debate, even sampling and additional 6% more Democrats Obama only gained a point.
The fact is, this poll actually shows Romney with a 3 point lead since the last poll – if they used the same sample size.
This is not an outlier. It simply a Liar.