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Poll Skew Report: Skew History for Each Poll

In the following polls, I have graphed the skew – shown in green – and the Obama lead – shown in purple for all of the polls averaged at Real Clear Politics as of this morning.

Rasmussen is showing a 1 point Romney lead for their final tally, but they have yet to post the demographics so I am using the last poll available with demographics which showed Romney +2. However, the Rasmussen poll has been tracking their pro Democrat skew up for the last few weeks of the election. There is nothing in their other polling to indicate a reason for this, so it is not certain why this has been done.

And the media is claiming that the polls have drawn to dead even over the last few days, where Romney seemed to have momentum. This would suggest that either Obama has gained or romney has lost ground.

However, when we look at the graphs below, it becomes quite obvious that the polls have all began skewing more towards Democrats in the final days of the race.

Seven of the 11 final polls of the season ended with an uptick skew towards Democrats in the last 3 days, 2 stayed the same and 2 actually trended downward as far as their skew.

The average skew of all of these polls is Democrats +6, but as Gallup does not release their demographic information, we are not able to track the skew of their polls.

But the final result is clear. Pollsters seem to think that the demographic turnout this year will be nearly identical as far as party identification as 2008.

Enthusiasm is greater with Romney voters than with Obama voters and several polls indicate that we have seen a 10 point turnaround in party identification. Polls in 2008 showed Democrats with a +8 party ID advantage and now, Republicans are up by 2 points.

And Independents, who broke for Obama 52% to 33% in 2008 polls are now favoring Romney by 59% to 35%.

And Romney has closed the “gender” gap with women to be a statistical tie, while he maintains a solid lead among men.

All signs seem to indicate a close race, but the turnout of the base will make the difference. If the polls are correct and the Republicans actually outnumber Democrats by 2% this year, and Independents are voting for Romney by huge margins, there is no way Obama can win this.

 

 Below are the skew graphs for each poll in the Real Clear Politics final average.

 

 Rasmussen Skew History

CNN  Skew History

 

PEW Skew History

 

Politico Skew History

 

NBC Skew History

 

 

ABC / WaPo Skew History

 

 

 

Fox News Skew History

 

 

CBS / NYT Skew History

 

 

National Journal Skew History

 

 

 

NPR Skew History

 

 

IBD / TIPP Skew History

 

 


About Tom White

Tom is a US Navy Veteran, owns an Insurance Agency and is currently an IT Manager for a Virginia Distributor. He has been published in American Thinker, currently writes for the Richmond Examiner as well as Virginia Right! Blog. Tom lives in Hanover County, Va and is involved in politics at every level and is a Recovering Republican who has finally had enough of the War on Conservatives in progress with the Leadership of the GOP on a National Level.

9 Responses to “Poll Skew Report: Skew History for Each Poll”

  1. Sane Person says:

    Still looks like Obama winning in every poll.
    Love your blog, full right wing disconnect from reality.
    And your tweets in ALL CAPS! Awesome. They shout I AM A NUT JOB!
    Keep up the good work.

  2. melody says:

    Still looks like Obama winning in every poll.
    Love your blog, full right wing disconnect from reality.
    And your tweets in ALL CAPS! Awesome. They shout I AM A NUT JOB!
    Keep up the good work.

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Tom White Says:

Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

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