In the following polls, I have graphed the skew – shown in green – and the Obama lead – shown in purple for all of the polls averaged at Real Clear Politics as of this morning.
Rasmussen is showing a 1 point Romney lead for their final tally, but they have yet to post the demographics so I am using the last poll available with demographics which showed Romney +2. However, the Rasmussen poll has been tracking their pro Democrat skew up for the last few weeks of the election. There is nothing in their other polling to indicate a reason for this, so it is not certain why this has been done.
And the media is claiming that the polls have drawn to dead even over the last few days, where Romney seemed to have momentum. This would suggest that either Obama has gained or romney has lost ground.
However, when we look at the graphs below, it becomes quite obvious that the polls have all began skewing more towards Democrats in the final days of the race.
Seven of the 11 final polls of the season ended with an uptick skew towards Democrats in the last 3 days, 2 stayed the same and 2 actually trended downward as far as their skew.
The average skew of all of these polls is Democrats +6, but as Gallup does not release their demographic information, we are not able to track the skew of their polls.
But the final result is clear. Pollsters seem to think that the demographic turnout this year will be nearly identical as far as party identification as 2008.
Enthusiasm is greater with Romney voters than with Obama voters and several polls indicate that we have seen a 10 point turnaround in party identification. Polls in 2008 showed Democrats with a +8 party ID advantage and now, Republicans are up by 2 points.
And Romney has closed the “gender” gap with women to be a statistical tie, while he maintains a solid lead among men.
All signs seem to indicate a close race, but the turnout of the base will make the difference. If the polls are correct and the Republicans actually outnumber Democrats by 2% this year, and Independents are voting for Romney by huge margins, there is no way Obama can win this.
Below are the skew graphs for each poll in the Real Clear Politics final average.
Rasmussen Skew History
CNN Skew History
PEW Skew History
Politico Skew History
NBC Skew History
ABC / WaPo Skew History
Fox News Skew History
CBS / NYT Skew History
National Journal Skew History
NPR Skew History
IBD / TIPP Skew History