Rasmussen came out today with a new poll of 500 likely voters that shows the Virginia Senate race between Republican George Allen and Democrat Tim Kaine dead even at 45% each. But there are some very interesting numbers in the poll that might come as a bit of a surprise if you pay attention to the mainstream media.
It seems that the Democrat’s fabricated Republican “War on Women” has backfired.
The poll finds that 56% of women see Allen as either Very Favorable or Somewhat Favorable while the same options for Kaine total 44%. Both rank Very Favorable by an identical 22% with the difference coming in the Somewhat Favorable option.
And Kaine’s troubles only get worse when you look at the Somewhat Unfavorable and Very Unfavorable options. Allen is seen as somewhat unfavorable among females by 13% and the same women rate Kaine somewhat unfavorable by 17% But in the Very Unfavorable responses, 19% of the women put Allen in this category and a whopping 30% view Tim Kaine as very unfavorable. Allen wins this 30% to 49%, an almost 20% margin!
If you read Virginia Right! regularly you know I have certain standards for polls. Many of those we have seen are skewed badly towards the Democrats. Rasmussen tends to be a bit more honest in their selection and this poll is no exception. The polled 37% Republicans and 36% Democrats and in a state that has been trending Republican since 2008 that is a pretty good mix. I personally believe the demographics here in Virginia statewide are a bit more Republican than the 37%, but I’m not going to quibble about that. If anything, I believe that Allen may be up a point or two, but that is still a dead heat.
The good news for Kaine is that among the 18-39 year old crowd his favorables lead Allen’s by almost 20 points (male and female). But Allen reverses that with the 40-64 age group.
But the MediScare Campaign looks to have failed for Kaine as Seniors 65+ trust Allen as favorable over Kaine by 58% – 44%. And more Seniors fear ObamaCare (56%) than the Ryan Plan (35%).
And 91% of all likely voters rate the economy as fair or poor, also not a good omen for Kaine.
Kaine’s base looks to be young voters and black voters. Everyone else favors Allen including identifying their race as “other”.
Based on the internals in this poll, more voters like Allen, but few are planning to cross party lines to vote for him. But the good news for Allen is that he leads among Independents 45% to 32%.
About the only thing that strikes me as odd in this poll is the fact that it is a 45%-45% tie. All of the demographics seem to be pointing to Allen except the young and blacks.
Allen needs to concentrate on the black vote and reaching young people.
Kaine needs to stop scaring Seniors and women. It’s not working and looks to be backfiring.