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Roanoke College Poll Shows Trump and Clinton Tied Using 2012 Turnout Model???

A new poll by Roanoke College shows Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in a 38-38 tie. The poll writeup shows that they are using the turnout model based on the 2012 presidential election exit polls.

Quotas were used to ensure that different regions of the Commonwealth were proportionately represented. The data were statistically weighted for gender, race, age, and political party. Weighting was done to match the demographic groups’ representation in the 2012 Virginia exit poll. The margin of error was not adjusted for design effects due to weighting.

I am not being critical of the decision to use 2012 turnout as a model, and most of the polls being released now are doing the same thing. And the truth is, we really don’t know what the turnout will be in 2016.

But will people – especially blacks – turn out for Hillary as they did for Obama? Somehow I doubt that. And the enthusiasm for Hillary is pretty much non existent except for a few die hard old biddies ingrained in the establishment muck of the Democratic Party. Obama has been a miserable excuse for a president, but damn, he’s a talker. They both spew the same BS but if there is a Blarney Stone in Kenya, Obama definitely french kissed it. And obviously the stone would refuse to kiss Hillary. Even a rock has standards.

So I think the 2012 turnout model will prove to be an overestimate of Hillary voters. Far more people have far less reason to go to the polls.

But then, on the other hand, you have the #NeverTrump losers who pretend to be standing on some sense of morality or conviction. Just stating their aversion to Trump, because he beat their favorite establishment candidate, isn’t enough. They spread silly lie after lie about Trump in what we now know is a failing attempt to recruit other disgruntled sore losers. I especially like the “Trump won’t back the nominee” accusations. Are they even looking at what they type? Silly losers. But they are rapidly fading away as the reality of a Hillary presidency and Supreme Court appointments from hell fill the horizon. One poll shows 85% of Republicans are planning to vote for Trump.

But we must also look at the moderates and Democrats who hate Hillary and the evil, biased campaign that Hillary has waged. Trump will get a lot of votes from folks that had no interest in Mitt Romney or John McCain. And if you ever attend a Trump rally, you can see the enthusiasm. People are fired up to vote for Trump. The Democrats are fired up for Bernie, but the nomination process is rigged. He won’t win. And a lot of Bernie supporters will vote for Trump in November.

Now fear of Trump will cause a number of Democrats to go to the polls to vote against him, even if it means voting for Hillary. But that is probably a wash with the number of people who see Hillary as a real life Cruella De Vil. Especially when she barks like a dalmation!

As I look at the numbers behind all of the polls and look at the model they are using, I really don’t see the 2016 turnout looking anything like the 2012 model. The enthusiasm gap between Trump and Hillary is wide and deep. And as Trump continues to get under Clinton’s skin forcing her to keep changing her strategy, she is a completely inept campaigner and Trump is a master at taking down his opponents.

So I see this poll as amazing news for the GOP. The Democrats will not turn out like they did for Obama and 2016 will look nothing like 2012. Black turnout will be down quite a bit. So being tied according to the 2012 turnout model is great for Donald Trump and a nightmare of you are Hillary Clinton.

Time will tell, but I believe we can add the 4 point margin of error in this poll to Trump.

About Tom White

Tom is a US Navy Veteran, owns an Insurance Agency and is currently an IT Manager for a Virginia Distributor. He has been published in American Thinker, currently writes for the Richmond Examiner as well as Virginia Right! Blog.Tom lives in Hanover County, Va and is involved in politics at every level and is a Recovering Republican who has finally had enough of the War on Conservatives in progress with the Leadership of the GOP on a National Level.

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Tom White Says:

Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

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