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SANDY’s LIVE BLOG for TONIGHT’s ELECTION! WILL SARVIS get 10 PERCENT? CAN CUCCINELLI pull it out? (Or is Sandy TOAST with the GOP?)

Tonight’s live blog of the election will cover about 20 House races (thanks to Not Larry Sabato and the VA Libertarian Party for some ideas!), the Sheriff’s race in Farifax, of course the statewide races (will Obenshain win?  Can Sarvis get ten percent or more?  Can Jackson pull off a miracle)

Maybe one of the most exciting (I wish it was not!) is Del. Bob Marshall’s race in the 13th District.  I actually spoke with Bob this morning after I voted to encourage him and let him know I was praying for his victory.

Another tight race is another delegate that I know:  Rich Anderson in my old 51st district seat.

I also want to keep up with Les Adams in the 16th, Buddy Fowler (who has Libertarian Christopher Sullivan along with Democrat Toni Radler in his district) in the 55th to succeeed retiring Del. John Cox (Blessings to you Del. Cox!  You were a fabulous representative) and in the 4th District, will attorney Ben Chafin win in his seat.  (I just realized – he’s the one that is a shoo-in!  Congrats to you Delegate Chafin!)

I also will see if Henrico and Chesterfield votes in a meals tax.  My take is no.

756PM:

With about 20% in – Cuccinelli still has a slight lead and Sarvis has about 7.5%.

No results from Marshall’s district.

With 3 of 66 precincts in – Adams has a 400 vote lead over his Democratic opponent Elizabeth Jones.

In the 23rd district, the Libertarian (Parrish) has about 18%

In the 47th district, Dem. Patrick Hope has a substantial lead over Libertarian Laura Delhomme.

In the 53rd district, the Democrat (Simon) has a solid lead over the GOP (Tidwell) and the LP (Tellez) who has about 4.3%

With five precincts in the 55th, Hyland “Buddy” Fowler has a 55 to 41% lead over Dem Toni Radler.  Libertarian Christopher Sullivan is just under 5%.

In the 68th District, Del. Manoli Loupassi (A delegate I have heard good things about) seems to be cruising to victory 63 to 36 percent w/ 13 precincts in

In the 78th district, there is a tight race with Leftwich (D) with 50% and Bryant with 46% and the LP candidate Foster with about 4%.

More in a few minutes!

815PM

Mixed bag in meals tax voting – Henrico yes and Chesterfield no.  Have fun, Henrico, paying more for eating out!  Better to cut spending instead.

With 45% in:  The Lt. Governor’s race is super close – Northam has just under 51%

Cuccinelli still has that small lead (7-8pts) over McAuliffe and Obenshain is perhaps surprisingly strong with a 54/45 margin.

Sarvis has just over 7%.  Unless we see some votes soon, he’ll fall short.  Perhaps the terrible smear campaign hurt him just enough to keep the LPs from 10%.  Hope they sleep well.

831Pm

Thanks to the Jeffersoniad – a group of (usually right) bloggers I got this info from Stafford County.

Now 100% in:
45% turnout
Ken wins by 14.5
EW by 8
Obie by 14
Prince William has mixed messages on turnout.
Statewide with 55% – Cuccinelli has 49 to 43 lead with Sarvis just under 7.  I think 10% is unlikely.
Northam has a slight lead 51 to 48 for Jackson; Obenshain is winning too.
With about 75% of the vote in Sandy projects Les Adams is the winner in the 16th district!  Congrats to Delegate-elect Les Adams!  I’m treating the delegate to lunch during session!
845Pm
Let’s start with the stunned voices at CNN – they’re talking about 2009 and 2012.  Too early to call in the Governor’s race, they say.
Let’s go to some close delegate races and the results are generally good:
6 – GOP Campbell wins!  This was a toss-up according to Not Larry Sabato (NLS)
13 – Marshall – 52/47 with six precincts in
51 – Anderson – with five precincts in – about 60/40
12 – Yost is ahead too – with 18 of 34 precincts in – about 60/40 race
29 – GOP Berg is ahead of Dem with 56/44 with 40%
55 – Fowler has huge lead – more than half in – 60 to 35 with 5 for Sullivan (he deserved better!) – WAIT FOR IT! – Sandy calls it for Fowler – congrats to Delegate elect Buddy Fowler!
87 – only 3 precincts but Ramadan is winning.
93 is a true toss up – Dem Mason has 8503 and GOP Watson has 8247.
858PM
Congrats to Commonwealth’s Atty elect Tracy Quackenbush Martin – with 22 or 22 precincts in she has a 2/1 victory over Democrat Mike Freshour!
Evildoers and criminals better leave Halifax County before the first of the year!
The results from Martinsville are fragmentary.  Too early to call the race between incumbent Joan Ziglar and H. Clay Gravely, Jr..
The Governor’s race suddenly became too close to call.  Real close.
Cucc – 766. 580
MAul – 751, 413
Sarvis has over 100,000 votes but again nowhere near 10%
I have done a quick review of the remaining precincts and it seems hard to find a way to victory for Cuccinelli.  A fair amount of both PWC and Fairfax County and City are out.  So is Suffolk and Hampton City.  I would call the election for McAuliffe.  It’s a shame.  Obenshain seems in better shape and it may be down to the wire there.
1220 AM 11/6
I am back from a surprisingly upbeat victory party for Sarvis.  I was invited to join the Libertarian Party (I said I’d consider it) and I proposed my event in Spring 2014 to raise money, unveil the LP US Senate candidate (not Sandy Sanders!) and get both partying and training, too.
It looks like about 2 percent for McAuliffe and a paper thin victory for Obenshain.  Jackson showed a respectable 45% considering all the hateful things said about him.
Lets look at House races:
12 – Yost wins
13 – with one precinct left – Marshall has a 600 vote lead – Sandy projects Bob Marshall’s going back to RVA!
29 – Berg wins!  I did a victory lap at home on this one!
51 – Del. Rich Anderson wins reelection by about 1700 votes!  Congrats!
87 – Del. Ramadan is ahead with one precinct to go – but only by 195 votes!
93 – Dem Mason slipped past GOP Watson by about a 1000 vote margin.  I think this is a Dem pickup – NLS had this as a toss-up.
Del. Scott Lingamfelter got a scare in the 31th district by winning by less than 250 votes over his Dem challenger Jeremy S. McPike.
Both LaRock and Berg won their seats – they defeated Dels. May and Sherwood respectively in primaries.
In LP races, Jonathan Parrish garnered the highest percentage in any race at 22.4%, followed closely by Laura Delhomme at 22.26%.  Our own Christopher Sullivan got 5.54%, Anthony Tellez received 4.18%, Dan Foster had 3.68% and Patrick Hagerty rounded out the six LP House candidates with 3.38%.  I thought Delhomme might have the highest percentage but she did have the highest vote count with 5,866 compared with Parrish’s 4,986.
Robert Sarvis did not get 10% but he drew over 142,000 votes.  That is tremendous.  The VA LP should sell bumper stickers (with proceeds going to the Libertarian Victory Fund 2014/2017) saying:
Robert Sarvis IS My Governor!
or:
MY Governor is Robert Sarvis!
My old campaign manager, Greg Cebula, WON his seat to be Berkeley Supervisor with 41% in a three person race.  I think he unseated an incumbent!  CONGRATS GREG!
But Joan Ziglar was defeated by her opponent in Martinsville City for Com Atty!  I am sorry.  She was a great prosecutor.  Always a comeback possible, Joan.
Kincaid defeated Wolfe in the Fairfax Sheriff”s race.  James Icenhour, who supported ICLEI in James City County, was narrowly defeated by his GOP opponent, Kevin Omziuk, in a race that will probably be recounted.
I guess I’ll be on a wanted poster along with Tom White and Bob Shannon at GOP HQ!  Signing off until later today!

 

About Elwood Sanders

Elwood "Sandy" Sanders is a Hanover attorney who is an Appellate Procedure Consultant for Lantagne Legal Printing and has written ten scholarly legal articles. Sandy was also Virginia's first Appellate Defender and also helped bring curling in VA! (None of these titles imply any endorsement of Sanders’ views)

4 Responses to “SANDY’s LIVE BLOG for TONIGHT’s ELECTION! WILL SARVIS get 10 PERCENT? CAN CUCCINELLI pull it out? (Or is Sandy TOAST with the GOP?)”

  1. Gene Lefty says:

    Thanks Sandy.

    With 3% of precincts reporting in, Lefty News projects Terry McAuliffe as the winner in Virginia Governors race!

  2. Mike Wilburt says:

    .
    Well…..”message votes” were sent and received.

    You guys must be so proud.

    When does the site change names to “Virginia Middle” or “Virginia Pliable” or the “Virginia Messenger”.

  3. Gene Lefty says:

    Mike. hows about Virginia’s Left?

    ELECTION “ERNALYSUS”

    The funny thing is, did The Tea Party keep the Tea Party from getting elected? Or, did the Far Right keep the Far Right from getting elected?

    If Texas Tea Party “sweetheart”, Canadian born, Canadian Citizen, U.S. Sen. Rafael Cruz, had not shut the government down, and had just let the media hammer ObamaCare for those 16 days? Would Virginia Tea Party ” Sweetheart” Cuccinnelli have won? Probably!

    Serves them right for what they did to Mr. Bolling!

    Maybe this January, instead of the big spending, Republican led Tax Increases, Anti-Women’s Right sessions, Virginia can move forward instead of backward.

    Yes, the 100 pound overweight (No pun intended Chris, well, maybe just a little) ) lawmakers will still chew on lobbyist supplied prime rib. And wash it down with lobbyist supplied liquor. And party until their gift Rolex’s say it is time to go home. And go on $11,000 Canadian Safari’s. And do exactly what JB tells them to do.

    They don’t call if “The Grand Old Party” for nut’in !

    But could it be any worse than last year for the poor and middle-class? Let’s hope not !

    Sent from my iPhone

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    Tom White Says:

    Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

    Check out NewsMax!

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