With a number of new polls showing a strong trend towards Donald Trump – LA Times has Trump up by 5% – A brand new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Trump and Clinton in a tie.
But the numbers behind the poll tell a different story.
The poll includes a +9 skew towards Democrats – 44% to only 35% GOP.
But a glaring number, to me at least – is the fact that only 13% Independents were included.
In 2012 Obama won with +6% Democrats. The actual results in 2012 showed 38% Democrats, 32% Republicans and 29% Independents.
And anyone at this point that believes Hillary will bring out more Democrats than Obama is smoking some of Gary Johnson’s Aleppo weed. they just ain’t into her.
But aside from the over sample of Democrats and under sample of Republicans, Independents are severely under sampled in this poll. And if you look at the poll, you will find that Independents are voting for Trump (according to the poll itself) with a +9% margin. 22% to 31%.
So how do you put a happy face on Hillary’s sinking poll numbers? You call too many Democrats, too few Republicans and WAY too few Indy’s.
And even with all that, this poll still comes out to a tie.
This is going to be a Trump landslide.