The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to bounce back above 10,000 shortly before the closing bell to close at 10,002. However, in after hours trading the drop continued. At present, the Dow is at 9,909 in after hours trading, down nearly 100 from yesterday’s closing.
Today we will see the January unemployment figures. The drum roll and fanfare for these monthly numbers has been an important bellwether as stocks react to the news. One thing to be cautious on, though, is the government manipulation of these numbers. The figures that are released today will be revised downward in short order. Sometimes 2 or 3 times during the month. While it is hard to say if the numbers are intentionally manipulated to blunt the bad news, the pattern has been repeated over and over again. And the released figures are always Seasonally Adjusted. What that means is that they interpret the raw data for you and tell you what it really means. Makes you wonder if they have hired some global warmers.
The gain or loss over last month’s numbers will be compared to the final “adjusted” figures. So a gain of 100,000 is not a net gain in employment. It is simply a smaller loss of jobs. While that is a good thing all in all, it is confusing and not well understood by most hearing the news. So, while Wall Street is expecting a number between +100,000 and -92,000 jobs it is important to remember that these seasonally manipulated numbers that will be adjusted downward during February are all losses.
The importance of these numbers is to measure how well or how poorly the Administration and Democrat controlled congress are doing in bringing us out of the recession. To crow about how wonderful manipulated numbers are (if they show fewer losses) and take your eye off of the big picture is nothing more than propaganda. Monthly unemployment numbers will fluctuate up and down by small amounts for years to come. Nothing this Administration is doing, or has done, has caused any more than a minute blip on employment and the economy, temporary at best. And all with borrowed money that must be removed from the economy when the loans come due.
For the last two quarters, Obama has borrowed money that the taxpayers will ultimately be required to repay in the form of higher taxes, and used that money to subsidize houses and vehicles. We have borrowed trillions of dollars, pumped it into one time discounts for big ticket items, and Obama and his minions pretend that a small boost in the economy is a recovery. These programs have mostly ended. So has any recovery. And the bills are coming due.
As long as taxpayers pick up a good bit of the tab for other people’s homes and automobiles, these items will sell. But this is artificial manipulation and is not sustainable. We have traded a temporary illusion for a crushing future debt.
It is all smoke and mirrors that will soon crash and burn.