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Trump Regains Lead in Brand New Rasmussen and LA Times Post Debate Polls

ec31b5062cfd1c3e81584d04ee44408be273e5d31ab716499cf5_640_graph-trending-upDonald Trump has jumped back into the lead over Hillary Clinton in the latest Rasmussen Poll.

The poll is a 3 day rolling average, which means that all of the responses in this poll are from Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

On Tuesday, I wrote the following:

Good news for Trump Supporters.

Rasmussen showed on Friday – before the Trump Tapes leaked – Clinton with a 1 point advantage.

On Monday, their 3 day rolling average showed that the leaked tapes pushed Clinton out to her biggest jump yet – a 7 point lead over Republican Donald Trump.

But after his fantastic debate performance on Sunday night, the 3 day average which was taken Saturday and Sunday prior to the debate when the Monday polls were added in, Clinton’s lead was down to just 5 points. Which means that Monday was a good day poll-wise for Trump. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues in Trump’s favor.

So the data we were seeing on Tuesday was from polls taken Saturday and Sunday before the debate, but after the release of the “Trump Tapes” where he used some locker room language more than a decade ago, along with Monday’s results that were after the debate. So the Friday through Sunday poll showed Clinton with a 7 point lead.

Then when the 3 day rolling average included data from Monday, after the debate, Clinton’ lead dropped to just 5 points.

And the poll released today which was taken on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, Trump is back in the lead by 2 points.

And as I wrote on Tuesday about the validity of the Rasmussen poll:

n comparing Rasmussen to other polls, Rasmussen seems to keep the Republican and Democrat ratio the same day to day. The rest, have a larger sample of Democrats and they seem to change the number of Democrats polled every time Trump has a “moment”. Of course, this may just be the way the poll came out, or some of the polls may actually be trying to push public opinion rather than measure it (Say it ain’t so!). But there seems to be more coordination than actual scientific polling going on at a lot of polling outfits.

The LA Times still shows Trump with a lead. Their’s is also a rolling average that holds the R to D ratio the same poll to poll.

And I wrote It will take a few more days to see which way this trends, but I will be looking at Rasmussen and LA Times as a more reliable indicator.

Checking the LA Times, Clinton had a slight lead over Trump in the poll released yesterday (10/12) with a tight 44.4% to Trump’s 44.0%. In their poll released this morning, Trump has moved ahead of Clinton by a slight margin with Trump at 44.3% to Clinton’s 44.2%.

And with a rash of polls using far fetched samples like the Reuters/Ipsos poll that sampled +16 Democrats and the NBC poll taken by a Clinton polling firm, and a plethora of others showing Clinton leads, we have to realize that the media and the polls are trying to drive public opinion. So take them with a grain of salt.

About Tom White

Tom is a US Navy Veteran, owns an Insurance Agency and is currently an IT Manager for a Virginia Distributor. He has been published in American Thinker, currently writes for the Richmond Examiner as well as Virginia Right! Blog. Tom lives in Hanover County, Va and is involved in politics at every level and is a Recovering Republican who has finally had enough of the War on Conservatives in progress with the Leadership of the GOP on a National Level.

7 Responses to “Trump Regains Lead in Brand New Rasmussen and LA Times Post Debate Polls”

  1. RB says:

    Thanks for all these articles you’re putting out calling attention to the ways these polls are easily distorted. It’s so troubling that the media is engaging in such one-sided attacks against a presidential candidate. We’ve been lied to for far too long. I hope things change soon. People like you are helping though, so please keep it up! Thanks.

  2. robert shannon says:

    Thanks again Tom for the wise dissection of the polling methods that are clearly slanted towards Golden Girl.

    Turnout & support for Trump among African Americans may be the edge he gets on Nov. 8th. The latest e-mail dump slamming Catholics in key states like Pennsylvania , the redneck name calling , and last but not least the health insurance premium increases now arriving in the mail will redound to Trumps favor. The volatility in the stock market may also help him.

    25 days in politics is an eternity, much can change. My understanding is that his campaign is getting ready to unleash a giant ad buy in key states , and the RNC is doing a commendable job on the ground game. I hope this final debate gives him the lift I expect it will.
    Bob Shannon King William

  3. Ted
    Twitter:
    says:

    Trying to understand these polls, and came across your site. In your opinion, what would be the best sample to use at this point ( D +? etc ). I’d like to think the polls are skewed, but I heard this in 2012, and they were more accurate.

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Tom White Says:

Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

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