Categorized | News, Opinion


The Eastleigh riding by-election for local parliament is getting very interesting.  Very interesting indeed.  UKIP could win after all!  Certainly very good possibility of their best turnout ever.  I reported the Lord Ashcroft poll this AM but the Guardian is reporting by one of its bloggers that two (the third poll is the Ashcroft one) polls are showing similar results:

Survation, 18-22 February, 543 voters:
Lib Dems, 29pc, Conservatives 33pc, Ukip 21pc
Populus, 21-22 February, 1001 voters:
Lib Dems 33pc, Conservatives 28pc, Ukip 21pc
Populus, 22-24 February, 1002 voters:
Lib Dems 33pc, Conservatives 28pc, Ukip 21pc

The news story at the BBC has a great line from UKIP Leader Nigel Farage:

The Lib Dems have said the Eastleigh contest is a straight fight between them and the Conservatives but Mr Farage said UKIP was “coming up strongly on the rails” with some polls suggesting support for his party was up 20% since the last election.  (emphasis mine)

Nice, clever horse racing expression!  There also might be another factor in play, according to Lord Ashcroft.  The Tory voter who decides that his or her candidate cannot beat the LibDem might have to switch to UKIP:

Conservative voters continue to consider a Lib Dem victory more likely than a Tory one – perhaps heightening the attraction of a nothing-to-lose vote for UKIP.

There also are a large number of voters (over a quarter) who will not indicate who they will vote for:

Even if it is true that half of guarded or supposedly undecided voters will vote for the same party as last time, a total of 27% of Eastleigh voters remain impossible to allocate – not least because nearly half of them refuse even to say how they voted in 2010. These people could yet produce a surprise.

Not speaking to pollsters?  Polls in the twenties?  I think that we might have an interesting election night in the UK on Thursday.

About Elwood Sanders

Elwood "Sandy" Sanders is a Hanover attorney who is an Appellate Procedure Consultant for Lantagne Legal Printing and has written ten scholarly legal articles. Sandy was also Virginia's first Appellate Defender and also helped bring curling in VA! (None of these titles imply any endorsement of Sanders’ views)

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Tom White Says:

Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

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