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Tim Montgomerie reported in ConservativeHome today that his survey showed that the Tory readers of his column, just over a third would cast a second preference vote for UKIP:

  • A large plurality (44.4%) of respondents wouldn’t use their second preference.
  • 34.5% would vote UKIP.
  • 8.7% would vote Conservative (which suggests about one-in-ten Tory members are ready to use AV to put UKIP as their first preference – something they wouldn’t think a safe option under first-past-the-post – and then put Conservatives as their second preference).
  • 5.9% would vote Lib Dem.
  • 3% English Democrats.
  • 1.2% Green.
  • 0.8% Labour.
  • 0.8% (four people) BNP.
  • 0.6% nationalist.

These are serious Conservatives:

I added some extra filters to this survey to triple check that the survey wasn’t being gamed. I only counted the votes of (a) people who were on the original ConHome panel when it was created in 2005 from various Tory membership lists and correctly predicted the outcome of the Cameron/ Davis contest; (b) who still identify themselves as Tory members; and (c) said, this time last year that they were quite or very satisfied with David Cameron. This reduced the sample size to just 505 people*.

I think the startling aspect of this is that just over ten percent of these serious Tories would vote FIRST for UKIP!

The UK will vote in May for something called Alternative Vote:  Where you cast multiple votes based on preferences.  No one has to vote but once.  But can vote more times – at least three.  But if one of ten serious, committed Tories would defect to UKIP first, this is an alarming statistic.  I am not sure I am for AV; the Tories are against it.  But it’s interesting.

This is largely confirmed by this news report:

Conservative voting patterns appear to have remained stable, with 41 per cent now saying their second choice would be a Lib Dem candidate and 27 per cent backing UKIP as a second preference. In 2010 the figures were 41 per cent and 23 per cent.

I suggest the Tory party better find its EU spine or consider this Alternative Vote:  Huge defections for UKIP.  I suspect UKIP is seen as a unelectable protest party in EU elections.  If that cracks, say in local or regional elections (Scotland, NI, Wales), then the rout could be on.  The next General Election might be worth staying up for.  The EU wing of the Tory party ought to consider starting it with a dramatic cross the aisle defection to UKIP.  Save the UK; support UKIP!

This is USA’s fight; remember, the EU is not our friend!


About Elwood Sanders

Elwood "Sandy" Sanders is a Hanover attorney who is an Appellate Procedure Consultant for Lantagne Legal Printing and has written ten scholarly legal articles. Sandy was also Virginia's first Appellate Defender and also helped bring curling in VA! (None of these titles imply any endorsement of Sanders’ views)

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Tom White Says:

Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

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