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Updated Analysis of US Senate Races – Republicans Win Senate 54 – 46

Back on July 1, 2014 I took a look at the US Senate races and used trends from previous elections to analyze the potential outcomes. One of the factors that seems to influence the outcome has been the generic congressional ballot. In years where the polling indicates positive results for one party, the generic ballot has served as a predictor of how likely the toss up’s were to go one way or the other. Typically, the better the generic ballot shows for a party, the more toss up seats they pick up.

When we looked at this at the beginning of July, Democrats had a slight advantage – about 1.4 points – in the generic ballot. Since then, Republicans have come pretty close to even which is a trend in the right direction, just very slow. Still, good news for the Republicans.

In the July 1 analysis we showed the November outcome to be a Republican takeover of the Senate 52 – 48.

So what has changed in the last 6 weeks?

Below is the previous analysis for each state with a seat up for grabs in a quotation block with the update below each one.

So lets look at each state and see where the polls stand as of today.

Democrats Will Win the Following States:

Hawaii:

It’s Hawaii. They vote Democrat. Democrats hold.

Hawaii Update 8/20/2014 – Nothing has changed. Republicans have no chance of picking up this seat.

Minnesota:

Al Franken is leading by 10 points in this heavily Democrat state. Unfortunately, Democrats will hold this seat.

Minnesota Update 8/20/2014 – We are still looking at a Franken win, but the race is tightening. Still a safe Democrat seat at this point. Republicans have very little chance of picking up this seat.

Oregon:

A Left Coast Democrat stronghold. Incumbent Merkley is up by 10.

Oregon Update 8/20/2014 – Merkley is increasing his lead over Republican Wehby. Trending even more solidly Democrat. Republicans have no chance of picking up this seat.

Virginia:

A well funded Republican money man Ed Gillespie is fighting a well funded and well liked Mark Warner. Some polls have Warner up by as much as 30 points. This race will see Gillespie set a record for the most money spent in a landslide loss. Safe Democrat seat.

Virginia Update 8/20.2014 – Warner is increasing his lead against the challenger Gillespie. In a debate between the two, I believe they both lost. Republicans have no chance of picking up this seat.

*Michigan:

If the Republicans manage to get their generic polling numbers up to 9 or 10 this could be a close race, but as it stands now it will be a Democrat victory.

*Michigan Update 8/20/2014 – This race is very interesting now. Republican Terri Lynn Land has closed the gap and is pretty much even with Democrat Gary Peters. We are moving this to the Toss Up category below.

New Hampshire:

Former MA Senator Scott Brown has moved to New Hampshire in hopes of winning a seat. Brown, you may recall, won the seat Ted Kennedy had occupied for so many years. The world was shocked when a Republican won that seat. Brown ran as the 41st vote against Obamacare, promising to vote to filibuster the bill. He never got the chance to cast that vote because the Democrats used the bill that was passed before Brown arrived and never sent it into a conference committee for changes. And the remainder of votes Brown cast were mostly the same as Harry Reid after that until his defeat. Like Michigan, this race might be competitive if Republicans could convince their base to vote for this guy, but his record is well known. Folks in New Hampshire are also not too fond of outsiders that want to come in and run for office. The Democrats will win this race.

New Hampshire Update 8/20/2014 – Brown is making no progress against incumbent Shaheen despite his name recognition. Democrats will hold this seat.

Toss Up States:

Alaska:

The primary in Alaska is not until August 19th. This one has a good chance of going Republican, but we will have to see what happens.

Alaska Update 8/20/2014 – The Republican primary was yesterday and Sullivan was the winner. In the polls prior to yesterday, Democrat incumbent Begich had a slight lead in head to head polls vs Sullivan. These polls almost always tighten after the primary victor is declared and I expect this one to close and trend towards Republican Sullivan. Oil and energy are big issues in Alaska and I expect Sullivan to attack the Democrat with Obama’s desire to end the use of oil and coal. Still a toss up but I expect to move this to the Republican win column soon.

Colorado:

The voters will all be stoned, no doubt. Right now this one is very close and will probably move to the Republican win category.

Colorado Update 8/20/2014 – Republican Gardner still has not moved the needle. Still a toss up.

*Georgia:

Georgia has a runoff election later this month. so, like Alaska, we don’t have a candidate set yet.

*Georgia Update 8/20/2014 – Republican David Perdue won the primary and jumps to a lead over Democrat Michelle Nunn – daughter of Sam Nunn. This one is being moved to the Republican victory column.

*Michigan:

If the Republicans manage to get their generic polling numbers up to 9 or 10 this could be a close race, but as it stands now it will be a Democrat victory.

*Michigan Update 8/20/2014 – This race is very interesting now. Republican Terri Lynn Land has closed the gap and is pretty much even with Democrat Gary Peters. We are moving this to the Toss Up category.

*North Carolina:

For now, a toss up. This is one Republicans can take if they get their act together.

*North Carolina Update 8/20/2014 – Democrat incumbent Hagan continues to lose ground to Republican challenger Tillis. Moving this one to Republican Victory column.

 

Republicans will Win the Following States:

Arkansas:

A Southern state that is leaning Republican. Republicans should win this one.

Arkansas Update 8/20/2014 – Still a GOP win. Challenger Tom Cotton holds his lead over incumbent Mark Pryor.

Georgia:

Georgia has a runoff election later this month. so, like Alaska, we don’t have a candidate set yet.

Georgia Update 8/20/2014 – Republican David Perdue won the primary and jumps to a lead over Democrat Michelle Nunn – daughter of Sam Nunn. This one is being moved to the Republican victory column.

Iowa:

Another close one but at this point it is leaning to the Republicans.

Iowa Update 8/20/2014 – Still close but Joni Ernst will pull off the win.

Kentucky:

Some rank this a toss-up. McConnell is not going anywhere. He will do whatever it takes to win. He’s friends with Thad Cochran after all.

Kentucky Update 8/20/2014 – Love him or hate him, Mitch McConnell gets 6 more years.

Louisiana:

This one is close. But I think the war on oil, coal and energy will doom Mary Landrieu.

Louisiana Update 8/20/2014 – Still close but Republican Cassidy will take the seat from Mary Landrieu.

Montana:

The Republican Daines is up by 15 points.

Montana Update 8/20/2014 – Daines is up even more than last month. Strong GOP win.

Kansas:

Easy Republican hold.

Kansas Update 8/20/2014 – Republican Pat Roberts still up big.

Mississippi:

It is still not 100% certain that Thad Cochran will be the nominee. Most likely, but Democrats voted in the primary runoff and it is likely going to court. But whichever Republican is on the ballot will win.

Mississippi Update 8/20/2014 – Is there an uglier race in the US this year? Incumbent Thad Cochran urged Democrats to come out and vote for him in the Republican primary. The RINO Republicans were behind this whole debacle. The primary challenge has moved to the courts where it is not very likely the results of this Republican corruption will be overturned. But whatever the outcome, the Republicans will hold this seat.

*North Carolina:

For now, a toss up. This is one Republicans can take if they get their act together.

*North Carolina Update 8/20/2014 – Democrat incumbent Hagan continues to lose ground to Republican challenger Tillis. Moving this one to Republican Victory column.

South Dakota:

The Republican would win outright, but a former Democrat has decided to run in this 3 way race which will split the Democrat votes. Republican win.

South Dakota Update 8/20/2014 – Republican Mike Rounds in a landslide.

West Virginia:

A Republican win here.

West Virginia Update 8/.20/2014 – Republican Shelley Moore Capito up big over Democrat Natalie Tennant. A Republican victory still in store here.

The Tally Please!

Republicans Win 11 (Up 2 from 7/1/2014)

Democrats win 5 (Down 1 from 7/1/2014)

Toss UPs – 3 (Down 1 from 7/1/2014)

 

So my first analysis showed that the Republicans will add 9 seats to their 41 safe seats for a total of 50 and Democrats will win 6 seats to add to their 40 safe seats for a total of 46 seats.

In the 8/20/2014 update, Republicans will now win or hold 11 seats to add to their 41 safe seats giving them 52 seats and Democrats will win or hold just 5 seats giving them 45 seats.

On 7/1/2014 I said:

There are 4 seats that are going to be very important. Democrats will need to pick up all 4 of the toss up seats and will have a lot of trouble doing so. They will likely end up splitting the 4 toss ups with Republicans. So the likely scenario has the GOP with a 52-48 Senate majority.

Now there are 3 toss up seats and while the Republicans can win all 3 if they get their act together, I think Alaska and Michigan are the 2 most likely toss ups to go Republican and will trend Colorado Democratic for the final tally this month.

So at this point the updated tally based on the generic ballot trending the Republican’s way will see the Republicans with a 54 – 46 majority in the Senate.

And what I said last time still holds:

And the faster the Republicans come together and stop fighting amongst themselves the better.

Immigration, ISIS, Hamas vs Israel, Ebola, Ferguson and a disconnected president are gifts to add to the IRS, the EPA war on oil, coal and nuclear and the other issues that Republicans already had. Only poor leadership and stupidity will get in the way of a big win in November. And Republicans have that in abundance.

The Senate is the Republican’s to lose.

About Tom White

Tom is a US Navy Veteran, owns an Insurance Agency and is currently an IT Manager for a Virginia Distributor. He has been published in American Thinker, currently writes for the Richmond Examiner as well as Virginia Right! Blog.

Tom lives in Hanover County, Va and is involved in politics at every level and is a Recovering Republican who has finally had enough of the War on Conservatives in progress with the Leadership of the GOP on a National Level.

3 Responses to “Updated Analysis of US Senate Races – Republicans Win Senate 54 – 46”

  1. Mort Coleman says:

    Ed Gillespie has done nothing to win over the grass roots in VA. So far his non-statements have left him in the RINO look alike as we have nothing from his campaign to excite us. Correct me if I’m wrong, but Ed needs to march down the same path Dave Brat is taking, and take the campaign to Mark Warner. Mark may be the pretty boy in the campaign, but is vunerable on a host of issues important to those who vote.

  2. Jerry Gore says:

    I agree with Mort–Ed Gillespie’s campaign is no more refreshing than a glass of warm beer on a 100 degree day. From my vantage point, as a very conservative Republican in central VA, I have not seen him personally, I have not heard him up close and personal–rather, what I am hearing is Pablum coming from a stable of very young and somewhat scripted horse holders and hod carriers who show up at GOP meetings to press the flesh and pass out the standard variety of campaign materials which WE THE PEOPLE can wield on his behalf as the election nears. Contrast this with Dave Brat who invested his time, energy and money much more wisely and who had a message which was so simple and so sincere it rang like the tolling of a giant bell we could all hear and we felt the vibrations too which said to us: “A REAL PATRIOT IS RUNNING TO PROTECT AND DEFEND THE CONSTITUTION AS HIS OATH DEMANDS, WHO WILL IMPLEMENT AND VOTE IN ACCORD WITH OUR REPUBLICAN CREED”–what a breath of fresh air–like a very nice, very cold beer on a very hot day–it was refreshing compared to the horrible record and attitude of disdain and disrespect for these treasured values as practiced by ericCantor. Dr. Brat won by a large margin. It seems that politicians with a very long history of “playing the game” soon learn how to hide the pea under the walnut shell to keep WE THE PEOPLE in a perpetual guessing game as they dance, pirouette, flounce, parade and display their insincere motives for the public. Gillespie has a long record as a intimate member of the george bush / carl rove NeoconRino-infested batallion of strap hangers who set our country on a path which the Obomination used to win in 2008 AND AGAIN IN 2012, which is a horrible legacy for the GOP to serve up to an incompetent phoney community organizer trying to bring us all down. Gillespie needs to behave with the same courage, vision, sincerety and regard for our heritage as did our founding fathers for the restoration of our unalienable rights in those sacred documents written so long ago by the very giants who represented Virginia at the founding–we need a man like Patrick Henry who can speak out and who can stand and fight with sword and shield against ANYONE who shirks their duty to defend our CONSTITUTION against all enemies FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC — Obama’s lapdog Mark Warner damned sure DID NOT ! So, what hard evidence have I seen that Ed Gillespie will be able to do it? So far–NONE!

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Tom White Says:

Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

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