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The news has not just been good for UKIP but it has been good for Scottish independence, too:  A new poll shows YES with a LEAD (within the margin of error) over NO:  47/46 and the rest undecided (the tally with no undecided is Yes 51% and No 49%):

The people of Scotland are to be offered a historic opportunity to devise a federal future for their country before next year’s general election, it emerged on Saturday night, as a shock new poll gave the campaign for independence a narrow lead for the first time.

Amid signs of panic and recrimination among unionist ranks about the prospects of a yes vote on 18 September, the Observer has learned that a devolution announcement designed to halt the nationalist bandwagon is due to be made within days by the anti-independence camp.

The plan, in the event of a no vote, is that people from all parts of Scottish society – rather than just politicians – would be invited to take part in a Scottish conference or convention that would decide on further large-scale transfers of power from London to Holyrood.

A poll by YouGov for the Sunday Times sent shockwaves through the political establishment north and south of the border as it showed the yes camp had 51% to 49% for no, excluding the don’t knows. Better Together leader Alistair Darling said: “These polls can and must now serve as a wake-up call to anyone who thought the referendum was a foregone conclusion.”

Now any poll might be an outlier but I think the real tally, absent some game-changer that I cannot easily anticipate, is 55-45 or even 60-40 YES on September 18.  I think there is a hidden  YES vote.  I have mixed feelings about the independence; I hate to see the Union broken up but I also am glad the Scots get to decide finally what they really did not get to decide in 1707.  And the South did not get to decide if they could be independent in 1861; even though that decision was and would have been foolish.

But this development seems to be bad news for PM Cameron.  He gets to tell the Queen that he was the PM that lost the Union.  Cameron should be glad heads cannot literally roll over news like this.   But there’s worse if this report is to be believed:

Tory MPs are putting pressure on David Cameron to offer Cabinet positions to Ukip as part of a pre-Election ‘peace deal’ with Nigel Farage.


The move comes as Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg today makes a public call for the Prime Minister to reserve two Cabinet seats for Ukip – or sit back and watch Ed Miliband move into Downing Street.

In an article on these pages, Mr Rees-Mogg says Mr Farage could become Deputy Prime Minister while another Ukip MP could be Minister for Europe.

Wow!  That is a development.  Let’s suppose Scotland votes yes and then Clacton votes UKIP.  There could easily be a move against Cameron for party leadership.  Either Cameron or a new Prime Minister could make the UKIP-Tory deal.  Farage could be Deputy PM.  He could be the next Nick Clegg.  The people of Britain would be better off.

I would like to see such a deal and this article says what could happen:

Under one plan, Tory MPs who support Britain’s withdrawal from the EU would not be faced by a Ukip candidate at the General Election: in return, Mr Farage would be promised a small quota of Cabinet positions.


In the North and Midlands, the Tory-Ukip pact would aim to neutralise the threat from Labour to the Conservatives. Meanwhile, Ukip would be given a free run in some Labour-held seats.


One source said: ‘The idea would be that in Labour-held seats up North, where the Tories have no chance of winning, we would instruct Tory voters to back Ukip. In return, Ukip would not put up candidates in seats where a Tory candidate is within, say, 2,000 votes of the sitting Labour MP.

‘There are a lot of seats in the Midlands and parts of the North where Ukip standing and putting up a strong show will simply let Labour in, so there’s a hell of a lot at stake.’

The Conservative/UKIP alliance could ensure victory (especially if Labour loses Scotland) and thus an immediate referendum on EU membership with support from the government!  It’s a win for UKIP.

About Elwood Sanders

Elwood "Sandy" Sanders is a Hanover attorney who is an Appellate Procedure Consultant for Lantagne Legal Printing and has written ten scholarly legal articles. Sandy was also Virginia's first Appellate Defender and also helped bring curling in VA! (None of these titles imply any endorsement of Sanders’ views)

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Tom White Says:

Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

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