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With the Mass Meetings Over With, Who’s Winning? Peace or Wyatt?

I plan with this short column to handicap the convention after the three mass meetings. This is a “back of the envelope” computation. If I an grievously wrong, please graciously comment.

I made three assumptions: I used the two numbers for Hanover and King William (KW) from their official calls (792 and 164) and the very unclear number from New Kent (NK) (307 – not sure if total delegates are 307 and alternatives 307 as well but the official call says maximum number of delegates are 307.) I also took the numbers from Delegate Peace’s FB page as to prefilings (529 to 523 in Hanover, 162 to 91 in KW and 272 to 52 in NK). I also assumed that in KW and NK, Peace delegates – ided by the disclaimer at the bottom of the form – yes Supervisor Wyatt did that too – clever idea – were counted first and then uncommitted delegates if any (I do not know any in NK and KW) and then Wyatt delegates if any. I assumed the opposite in Hanover.

Now the delegates are weighted. That means the Hanover delegation has 62.74%, New Kent is 24.30% and King William is 12.95%.

So here are the numbers:

King William needs 164 delegates and then additional votes are alternatives (up to 164). There are 162 Peace and 91 Wyatt delegates. So I give this overwhelmingly to Del. Peace by a vote of 162 to 2. Let’s say 12% for Peace and 1% for the Hanover supervisor.

New Kent had (again based on Peace’s numbers) 272 and Supervisor Wyatt 52. With 307 delegates, that gives Peace 272 and Wyatt 35. A fairly decisive victory for the delegate – about 21% for Peace and 4% for Wyatt.

Now we turn to Hanover. The numbers are funny here however.

Peace claims 529 pre-filed delegates to Wyatt’s 523. BUT, the total number of delegates are slightly over the 1052 total – the number I recall from the meeting was 307 alternatives. There are about 47 other pre-filed delegates that probably used the official party form instead of a form published by one of the candidates. I will call these delegates uncommitted.

I am now assuming that Wyatt, the clear but close winner in the Hanover mass meeting, made sure his 523 votes went first and then what I would do is count the “uncommitted” ones (47) and then 223 Peace delegates to get to 793. And that means unweighted: About 66% for Wyatt, 28% for Peace and 6% uncommitted. I come up with in a back of the envelope about 42% of the weighted vote for Wyatt, 17.5% for Peace and 3.5% uncommitted.

I do strongly suspect the KW and NK meetings had at least a few “uncommitted” delegates but they would come out of the Wyatt total. So let’s ignore that variable as there were few extra delegates coming out of KW and NK.

So I get a nailbiter: 50.5% weighted vote for the delegate and 46% for the supervisor with 3.5% uncommitted. So everybody get out and attend the convention if elected delegate or alternative. Your vote might decide it.

And the winner of the convention is very likely to be the delegate from the 97th. I hope to live blog that convention. But if you ask me my best guess: Peace by a few percent – 20 votes or so. We’ll see on May 4.

About Elwood Sanders

Elwood "Sandy" Sanders is a Hanover attorney who is an Appellate Procedure Consultant for Lantagne Legal Printing and has written ten scholarly legal articles. Sandy was also Virginia's first Appellate Defender and also helped bring curling in VA! (None of these titles imply any endorsement of Sanders’ views)

2 Responses to “With the Mass Meetings Over With, Who’s Winning? Peace or Wyatt?”

  1. Bob Shannon

    It isn’t lost on anyone paying attention what is going on in this delegate count. If one understands the dynamics then one understands how hard Peace supporters are working to maintain the status quo. What do i mean by that ?

    Across the district you have a considerable number of open Democrats who have shown up at these events. If Peace was a conservative in any meaningful definition of the term why does he have such support from the other side ? It is and always will be about preserving the tax exemptions of the land use crowd, preserving the other generous tax exemptions that give advantage to certain groups, it is about preserving the annual free flow of taxpayers money to a laundry list of those with their heads in the taxpayer trough. Increases each year for the education establishment, law enforcement agencies, fire & rescue, the courts, and a ever growing array of social service agencies that Peace supports giving more money to each year. This guy is a big spender and the laughable explanations of phony conservatives who attempt to rationalize Peace’s change of heart on Medicaid Expansion is solely a result of not wanting to see Del Peace be ousted and have to worry about someone else not being as cooperative in keeping the gravy train of money/tax breaks flowing. Peace’s supporters are only interested in keeping the status quo intact. Calling Peace a conservative changes none of these cold hard facts.
    Bob Shannon King William

  2. Mr. Nobody says:

    Bob, first off, how does one get re-elected without spending all the money you mention above? How does anyone expect to take office from an incumbent without promise to spent ever more money or tax breaks for the rich? Perhaps one can get elected with the Trump/Republican lie to fix healthcare? Do you think elections are won taking things away from peopke?

    Also, define Democrat? I was unable to participate in this convention because of the last paragraph on the required form where I had sign and agree to support the entire Republican ticket in 2019. I cannot see myself voting for Tommy Norment. And there may be other Republicans I would not vote for. But, neither did I vote for Hillary. So, does that make me a Democrat? Surely you wouldn’t expect one to lie in order to participate in a convention?


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Tom White Says:

Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

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