This election could easily turn into Minnesota 1998 with just a few breaks. Several polls show that the Sarvis support is not an anomaly but seems to be between 8 and 11 percent. This is amazing considering that the Old Dominion is averse to third parties.
In the Bearing Drift poll – Sarvis is at an amazing 10.8 percent. Here’s some highlights:
And then there’s the Libertarian candidate, Robert Sarvis. His nearly 11 percent showing is impressive, and he draws his support largely from independents (44 percent of his total).
I agree. This is impressive. Now as you know I am close to the Sarvis campaign. It is exciting. I’ve never seen anything like it in Virginia since ironically then State Senator Cuccinelli won the 2009 convention on the first ballot. Millions have been spent and nobody seems to like the major party candidates. Can you say Governor Skip Humphrey? Nope – Reform candidate Jesse Ventura won with nearly 37% percent. Try this:
The candidates are tied 29-29 in the 5th congressional district. Sarvis runs strong here, with 21 percent. But his greatest strength is in the 4th CD, where he ties Terry McAuliffe at 24 percent and is just three points back of Ken Cuccinelli.
The bottom line? This race is wide open. We’ve seen this trend building over the last few weeks across all polls and ours confirms the tightening.
The truth is: Sarvis with enough resources CAN win. He is not just a spoiler.
In the largely rural region that includes the Shenandoah Valley, Southwest and part of Southside Virginia, Sarvis is getting 19 percent of likely voters — clearly hurting Cuccinelli where the Republican should be performing strongest. Sarvis also does well among younger voters, taking 15 percent of those between 18 and 49.
That appears to track the Bearing Drift poll. And people really want to vote for someone else:
“I really disagree with Cuccinelli’s politics, especially his anti-abortion stance,” said Gina Gabelia, 32, who lives in Ashburn and works at a nonprofit group.
As for McAuliffe, Gabelia said: “His advertisements make him sound like a stand-up guy, but who knows? . . . He has a good campaign manager.”
This is amazing. No one hardly knows the Libertarian but he is showing strength late into September. I do not know why the Libertarian Party, prominent Libertarians or Gary Johnson do not pour money into this race. There could be a historic night November 5. If Robert Sarvis has a chance in the polls to win and if he has his victory party here in the River City (and if I can get away), I’ll live blog from Sarvis HQ.