When I read the Press Release from George Allen a while ago announcing the endorsement of a number of Virginia TEA Party Patriots (over 100) that have endorsed Allen for US Senate, I said “WOW”!
And when I began reading the list of names that were included in the release, my subconscious began crunching the numbers. I know a good number of those folks, and while some are TEA Party group leaders, others are simply members. But together they comprise the heart and soul of the grassroots portion of the Virginia TEA Party movement. The names on this list are all conservative activists.
And while this is not a TEA Party endorsement per se, this list includes a great many of the “movers and shakers” within the movement. And as such, it is very significant because it precludes support for the other candidates without which they cannot win.
I have written a number of times that the path to the Republican Nomination for anyone not named George Allen was through the TEA Party. Allen has already captured the support of “Establishment” Republicans (though I really hate that term, as it no longer means what it once did). Most of the Virginia Republican politicians have been on-board with the former Governor and US Senator from the beginning. In fact, they never left.
But as I see it, journalistically speaking, the only path for any other challenger to reach the nomination is through the support of the TEA Party. And it will take ALL of the TEA Party support! And I question if even that would be enough in a Primary type election where the winning candidate will need name recognition in every corner of the state to win – not just one region.
And when the primary election rolls around, if there is more than one challenger to George Allen, the “not George Allen” vote will necessarily be split, leaving a George Allen victory the only probable outcome.
The only path to victory for any candidate other than George Allen is for there to be only one challenger with strong and unified support from all of the TEA Party crowd. And that door was just nailed shut by the Press Release from the Va. TEA Party Patriots today.
Of course we are still months away from the primary, but this one is no longer even close. There is no path to victory here for anyone but George Allen.
The Associated Press called this one a while back by virtue of their debate invitations to Allen and Democrat Tim Kaine exclusively. At the time, the nomination was not quite an inevitability.
It is now.
George Allen will be the Republican Nomination for US Senator from Virginia in the 2012 election.
Any other outcome is simply not logically probable.