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Republicans Could Gain +15 Senate Seats in 2012

While the pundits and analysts look over the 2010 elections and try to figure out how good or how bad it was for each side, many seem to have taken their eye off of the massive vulnerability the Democrats will face in 2012.

Of the 33 seats presently scheduled for the 2012 election, a whopping 23 of them are currently held by Democrats, including the 2 Independents who caucus with Democrats! Only 10 Republican seats are up for reelection.

The last time we saw one party with this many seats at risk was 2008, when the Republicans had 23 seats up for grabs and lost 8 of them – around 35%.

In 2006, the split was a bit more even, 15 Republican and 18 Democrats including the two Independents. And Democrats captured 6 of them, or 40%.

The 2010 elections saw 18 Republican seats up for grabs and 20 Democratic seats, including the Massachusetts seat won by Scott Brown in 2010, and  Republicans look to have gained 7 seats out of the 20 possible, or 35%.

So, if history is any indicator, Republicans stand to add 8 Senate seats in 2012, and possibly capture the White House, gaining control of government.

And what of a filibuster proof majority for Republicans?

First – a caveat.

Of course, a lot can happen and this is by no means a prediction. It is just a look at the possibilities Republicans will have in 2012. A lot depends on the economy – the big wild card – and the way the parties behave over the next two years. Also, impossible to predict are retirements and primary challenges, so this is a look at what could happen – best case for Republicans.

Of the 23 seats on the block for Democrats, only 2 look to be safe at this point. Dianne Feinstein in California and Kirstin Gillibrand in New York.

Of the remaining 21, there are 11 that could flip to Republicans with the right candidate, proper funding and a mistake free campaign.

That leaves 10 Democratic seats that are imminently winnable for Republicans. Which means Republicans have a shot at 21 seats.

So, how many Republican seats are vulnerable?

Of the 10 in play, 4 are safe, Indiana, Maine, Utah and Wyoming. Of the remaining 6, there are 4 that are somewhat at risk. In heavily Democratic Massachusetts, Scott Brown has to be considered at risk no matter how popular he becomes. And Kay Bailey Hutchison is stepping down from what would otherwise be a safe Republican seat. Kyl in Arizona and Wicker in Mississippi may be somewhat vulnerable as well.

That leaves only 2 Republicans that are possible pickups for Democrats at this point. John Ensign in Nevada is under fire for an affair with a staffer while Bob Corker of Tennessee barely got by Democrat Harold Ford, Jr. in 2006 (50.7%) and will be a definite target by Democrats. Hank Williams, Jr. is reportedly considering a primary challenge. Are you ready for some politics?

So, best case for Democrats is snatching 6 seats from Republicans. This would leave Republicans with a 15 seat gain in the Senate and a filibuster proof majority with a couple to spare.

Another major wild card is the fact that Republicans won so many state legislative races and the number of states that flipped from Democrat to Republican. 11 State Legislatures are now totally Republican and 1 is now mixed.

Interestingly, of the 33 seats up for reelection in 2012, over half of the incumbents (17) will be 65 or older on election day in 2012.

The table below shows the Senators up for reelection in 2012 and the assessment of their chances in 2012.

Green = Safe
Yellow = Possible
Red = Could Flip

About Tom White

Tom is a US Navy Veteran, owns an Insurance Agency and is currently an IT Manager for a Virginia Distributor. He has been published in American Thinker, currently writes for the Richmond Examiner as well as Virginia Right! Blog.Tom lives in Hanover County, Va and is involved in politics at every level and is a Recovering Republican who has finally had enough of the War on Conservatives in progress with the Leadership of the GOP on a National Level.

3 Responses to “Republicans Could Gain +15 Senate Seats in 2012”

  1. Eesjresquire says:

    I like the Delaware one – although I won’t wish health issues on anybody! – but now the GOP can return the favor and elect the coin guy – former Rep. Mike Castle – to the senate in 2012! But Castle would have to run against Beau Biden probably!

  2. Msmichlee says:

    Yeah guess what 10 republican seats are up for grabs too. If things continue the way they are now and the republican keep spinning the message that was sent in November they will be replace in 2012 cant wait. I for on wasn’t fool enough to think that the republicans would do anything different from what they always do steal from the poor to give to the rich.

    • Editor says:

      Perhaps you did not read the article. There are 23 Democrat seats and 10 Republican seats up for grabs. The point f this post was to determine a best case scenario for Republican gains in 2012.

      The GOP could pick up 17 of the 23 seats and lose 2 for a net gain of +15. The 10 Republican seats up for grabs are already in the calculation with 8 safe and 2 possibly turning Democratic.

      I am not sure why you believe taking more from ANYONE to redistribute to another is good. The rich pay FAR more in taxes than the poor.

      For 2009, the poorest 47% of American households paid ZERO in taxes and 40% of the poorest Americans actually MADE MONEY FROM THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT.

      The folks making more than $373,000 paid 73% of the Federal Budget. That means that the top 10% of wage earners pay 3/4 of the taxes.

      Only a completely blind individual could believe that is fair.

      If you make more money than someone else, you should pay more in taxes, on that we agree. But why should you pay a higher percentage? If you make a million dollars and are taxed 33% you will pay $330,000. Why do you think the rich get a tax break if the tax rate is not 90%?

      People like you who listen to the hysterics from the Progressives are simply useful tools of their propaganda.

      IF the numbers were flipped and 73% of the budget were paid by the poorest 50% of Americans and the top 10% of income was exempted from taxes, you would be correct. And I would have a problem with that.

      You are absolutely wrong to believe that the poor are giving money to the rich. Do some research.

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    Tom White Says:

    Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

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