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Reuters/Ipsos Poll Samples 47% Democrats, 31% Republicans. +16% Skew Towards Dems

It may be time to question the polls that Real Clear Politics include in their averages. Some of these polls are completely unrealistic in my opinion. the latest poll by Reuters/IPSOS is a perfect example. The outfit released a poll today (10/12/2016) showing Hillary Clinton with a 7 point lead over Donald Trump. Theit last poll prior to today was released on 10/5/2016 and showed Clinton with a 6 point lead over Donald Trump. (Note: Both polls include 3rd party candidates Stein and Johnson.)

So looking at these two most recent polls, Clinton was +6 on 10/5 (42% to 36%) and is now +7 over Trump a week later (44% to 37%). And what a tumultuous week it was with the release of a 2005 tape that had Trump using some locker room language and then the debate Sunday night where fireworks flew and most saw the debate as a clear Trump victory.

So the conclusion one might draw from these two polls is that the tapes, obviously a help to Clinton and the debate, a plus for Trump almost canceled each other out. Clinton gained a point.

But wait! Take a look at the internal numbers behind the polls. And for reference, according to the Roper Center at Cornell University, in 2012 38% of the voters were Democrats and 32% were Republicans. 29% were Independents. And according to the same report, 50% of the Independents voted for Romney and 45% for Obama.

Reuters/Ipsos Poll 10/5/2016

reuters-10-5

Reuters/Ipsos Poll – 10-5-2016 (Click to enlarge)

On October 5, 2016 which was prior to the release of the Trump tape and prior to the debate, 43% of the people sampled in the Reuters/Ipsos poll were Democrats and 35% were Republicans. Independents were only 13% of the sample. Compared to the actual results of the 2012 election, this poll over sampled Democrats by 11%, they over sampled Republicans by 6% and under sampled Independents by a whopping 16%. And while Romney had a 5% advantage with Independents in 2012, this poll shows Trump with an 11% advantage over Hillary with Independents which dilutes votes for Trump.

And with this poll that I consider seriously skewed towards Democrats, Hillary only has a 6% advantage.

Note that the figures I used include “leaners”.

This poll, besides under representing Independents, also has a +8 skew toward’s Democrats. And when you look at the enthusiasm and massive rallies Trump holds compared to the small croeds Hillary attracts, it is, in my opinion, unrealistic to believe that Democrats will turn out in greater numbers than they did in 2012 for Obama. (Obama was +7 in 2008.)

Latest Reuters/Ipsos Poll 10/12/2016

Reuters/Ipsos Poll 10-12-2016  (Click to enlarge)

Reuters/Ipsos Poll 10-12-2016 (Click to enlarge)

So let’s take a look at the latest poll by Reuters/Ipsos and see what is really behind the 7% Hillary lead.

This poll samples 47% Democrats and only 31% Republicans. A whopping +16 difference in the Democrats favor and a full 10% more Democrats than Obama drew in 2012.

And astonishingly, they sampled even fewer Independents at 12%! The poll does show Independents go for Trump slightly less than the 10-5 poll with 8%, down from 11%. But in 2012, Independents made up 29% of the electorate.

So this poll adds 4% more Democrats than the previous poll, and takes away 4% of the Republicans sampled in the 10-5 poll.

And in spite of this poll moving from +8% Democrats skew (compared to the 10-5 poll) to a +16% Hillary advantage, she only gains 1% from last week’s poll.

So, forgetting for a minute that pretty much everything in this poll fails the “reality” test, what if they had not added those 8 points to Hillary? What if the poll used the same percentages as the one last week? If we take 4% from Hillary AND add 4% to Trump, the poll would then show Hillary with 40% (not 44%) and Trump with 41% (not 37%).

So, does this poll show Hillary gained a point over last week as it appears? Does this poll show that the Trump tapes hurt the Republican Candidate more than a poor debate hurt Hillary?

And you have to ask yourself, is a poll that samples 8% more Democrats than the previous week actually trying to measure public opinion, or are they trying to do something else entirely?

But the biggest question is why RCP would not insist on some quality control and standardization especially in polls by the same outfit in order to be included in the RCP Average?

The RCP average is used as absolute truth by most news media as a reflection of the state of the Presidential race. And even worse, nobody will hold a polling company accountable for these wild swings in their methods poll to poll. the only one anyone will remember or use to measure which poll does the best job is the one on November 7th. Until then, we are stuck having to look at the numbers behind the results to see if this is a decent poll, or if it is one we must take with a grain of salt – or not at all.

what Real Clear Politics should do is publish the percentage of Republicans, Democrats and Independents used in every poll. And any poll that does not release their internal numbers should be rejected by RCP.

In addition, this poll is an online poll. So one must consider the source. And they admit in their results:

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls.

All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

And yet, this poll is part of the average at RCP.

About Tom White

Tom is a US Navy Veteran, owns an Insurance Agency and is currently an IT Manager for a Virginia Distributor. He has been published in American Thinker, currently writes for the Richmond Examiner as well as Virginia Right! Blog.Tom lives in Hanover County, Va and is involved in politics at every level and is a Recovering Republican who has finally had enough of the War on Conservatives in progress with the Leadership of the GOP on a National Level.

8 Responses to “Reuters/Ipsos Poll Samples 47% Democrats, 31% Republicans. +16% Skew Towards Dems”

  1. Gene Lefty says:

    Barring the unforeseen, this election is over. It’s time to move on.

    You can’t change Washington, or even Richmond, without first taking the money out of politics. Unionize the grassroots, take the Wall St./special interest down one at a time. Do this by boycotting their products one at a a time. Bankrupt their asses. They will stop throwing money at politicians if it becomes radioactive, or, they do not have money to throw. These corporate bastards are now floating in cash from Communist China and Mexican cheap labor. They use that cash against us.

    You cannot win statewide or national elections with only one demographic anymore, that is virtually hopeless. But, you can stop the flow of globalization money into Washington with one demographic. Ryan and McConnell flipped the middle-class the bird this election.

    It’s all about the cabbage.

  2. lawrence wood says:

    Sadly this is becoming more the norm then the exception in this presidential cycle’s media sponsored polling efforts. I honestly don’t believe any polling effort this last few months is very reliable. Much like the print and electronic news media profession the a large segment of the polling business has left the arena of reporting the facts and transitioned over into creating them instead.

    Since we have no real base benchmarks to reliably judge candidate support levels we are wide open to difficultly in identifying possible areas of voter fraud and vote tampering on a significant scale. We have a candidate in Hillary Clinton with a well demonstrated proclivity toward supporting criminal acts to achieve her agendas and no reliable data to apply forensic techniques against to attempt to identify areas of voting inconsistencies. The level of vulnerability to our national electoral process this cycle is historically unprecedented.

  3. robert shannon says:

    I will avoid the long term implications and focus instead on what Tom’s analysis of polling and voters thinking shows.

    The impact of the Media bias ? It may not be as strong as some might think it is or attribute to it’s clearly waning influence. The question on the Media’s influence should be more on the perceived offense that has been suggested by Trumps behavior ,relative to what he said on that tape. How accurate was the Media or polling this summer in predicting the Brexit vote in Britain ?

    We are living in the day of the ” offended”. Every single group , whether it be ethnic, gender, sexual orientation has grievances that are ( take your pick ) exaggerated ,embellished or created out of whole cloth. Today unfortunately for Trump male behavior, particularly white male behavior is off the charts in terms of the scrutiny and or wrong conclusions drawn by certain circles as to it’s implications. If someone from another planet visited Earth, particularly America in 2016 they would be left with a impression that all white males are racist bigots, all of them are rich ( part of the 1% club) have the best jobs incomes, and assault a woman anytime they are in a elevator or stairwell with one alone. It is the times we live in. Little to do with facts or a realistic assessment of the facts, but more of a ” it’s your turn and we are going to get ya” , truth,facts or balance be damned. This past week we learned that Columbia University is hosting a ” no white males allowed” venue on taxpayer subsidized property. If you are a white male in this climate your 1st Amendment protections and safeguards go out the window.

    Voters , who come in every size, shape and levels of intellect rarely care to expend the energy to examine relevant facts for themselves and draw their own conclusions, relying instead to take a few sound bites off the morning/evening news and draw faulty conclusions from what the talking heads tell them they should think, or in this instance how they should vote.

    Have we reached critical mass where this is beginning to lose it’s effectiveness, it’s influence ? Let’s at least hope so. Trumps performance in the primaries certainly indicate it is. Anyone who has paid attention to this the last 18 months can easily recall the number of times the Media declared his candidacy dead. I laugh aloud when I think back at the “pundits” stating as if they had some empirical wisdom that Trump’s ceiling was 5%, then 10%, then 40%…..when they were wrong all along. What fed Trumps surge ? It is a growing disdain among Americans who find it repulsive what the American media has become, what the elitists tell us to think, what is now well established with both political party’s corruption, and subsequently seeing a flawed man like Trump as our only shot at cleaning some of this mess up, note I said SOME.

    The question then comes down to ( besides Tom’s excellent analysis of the polls bias) how many voters, particularly those who are swayed by a public revelation that Trump is a man who’s behavior at times is offensive ,particularly to some who have a heightened sensitivity to what he has admitted he said, vs. how many voters have a wider lense and see a bigger picture ?

    One can picture the folks sitting around their country club, church group, coffee night at Panera’s and talking about how they could never vote for a man who’s behavior is so repulsive. I close my eyes and visualize the conversations because I have witnessed them more times than I can count. It has been my life’s experience that more people are sheep than are wolves. Followers and not leaders, or at least don’t think like independent individuals who exercise their brains before they engage their mouths.

    We all know what happens to the sheep in that dynamic. I certainly hope people look at the big picture and recognize, flawed as Trump may be, the other option is to elect our first woman President ( and for some that alone is reason enough to support her ) who embodies the very worst of human beings character. The worst element is what a Hillary win represents, specifically that the last shreds of a nation ruled by law will have collapsed. She belongs in jail.

    Bob Shannon King William

  4. Kristjan says:

    Where did you get their weighed sample? I’ve been trying to find It and I can’t.

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  1. […] with a rash of polls using far fetched samples like the Reuters/Ipsos poll that sampled +16 Democrats and the NBC poll taken by a Clinton polling firm, and a plethora of […]


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Tom White Says:

Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

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