Virginia Right!

Once again, Bishop E.W. Jackson came away from a Virginia Republican US Senate debate as the winner. His overall performance was perhaps a bit less stellar than the Roanoke Debate, but that was most likely a function of the questions asked, which were so similar that it was not easy to answer without repeating yourself. But Jackson’s closing hit the ball out of the park as you can see in the video below. Jackson’s oratory skills and ability to connect with the audience are an amazing gift, but the substance of his remarks are substantial as is his understanding of the problems facing America today.

George Allen turned in a solid performance with his focus on a positive message and clear understanding that defeating Tim Kaine is the ultimate goal of the Republican Party. As the front runner in this contest for the Republican nomination and the right to run against Democrat Tim Kaine, a steady and solid performance was what Allen needed and exactly what he delivered. Allen proved he has his hand on the pulse of Virginia and understands what the Federal Government is doing to our country and the Commonwealth of Virginia.

Bob Marshall is undoubtedly the most knowledgeable of the minute details of an amazing number of bills and has been an effective legislator with enough foresight to pen the right bill at the right time to position Virginia in a way that makes federal intrusion into the Commonwealth fare more difficult on anything from ObamaCare to illegal immigration. The average voter, however, may fail to comprehend Bob Marshall and appreciate his technical prowess and “wonkish”  understanding of the art of governance. Still, for fans and supporters of Bob Marshall, his performance at the debate was solid and he did nothing to hurt his campaign.

The big (and only loser) of the evening was Jamie Radtke. She spent nearly one forth of her time, not answering the questions posed, but instead, attacking George Allen over and over again in one of the most embarrassing and shameful instances of vitriolic and mean-spirited hatred I have witnessed in public. Radtke removed all doubt to anyone not sure before now that she has become the far right fringe of politics most voters would not touch with a ten foot pole. When the attacks began, which was in Radtke’s opening remarks, the audience groaned. But as they continued on and on ad nauseam all but a small cluster of her supporters sat in disbelief at what became a complete breakdown of acceptable behavior within thr Republican Party.

The most bizarre and irrational comment was Radtke’s statement blaming George Allen for ObamaCare because he lost the Senate seat in 2006.

In the writeup of the Roanoke debate a couple of weeks ago I wrote “ If this is the first time someone heard Radtke speak, they might have come away with the perception that she was not as “at ease” with the group and somewhat humorless, which is a complete misconception.”

After this performance, it seems that may not have been accurate. Perhaps a year and a half of full time campaigning and only managing to poll in the low single digits has pushed Radtke over the edge. But she is no longer the calm, rational person I met several years ago who was adamant on keeping the shrill attacks of the far right fringe out of the Richmond TEA Party in order to maintain the credibility of the movement. Radtke has become that fringe element.

The Jamie Radtke I knew when she was the head of the Richmond TEA Party would not even allow the Jamie Radtke that showed up in Virginia Beach to even speak at a RTP event.

It is expected that candidates in Primary battles will disagree with their fellow candidates on issues. It is also expected that Republicans point out these differences in a civil manner. While it became apparent a good while back that Radtke was not going to be able to unite those who preferred someone other than George Allen behind her candidacy, the honorable thing to do would have been to bow out. This “scorched earth” policy and her abhorrent behavior has not only failed to rally anyone to her cause, it has probably eliminated her from this any future run for political office at any level.

None of the candidates deserve the disrespectful treatment Radtke spewed in this debate. All are deserving of respect and Republican voters are sure to drive that message home on June 12.

At least Radtke has done one thing. She has narrowed the choices down to two for those not favoring Allen – Jackson and Marshall. The last thing Virginia Republicans want in Washington is an angry, bitter person unable to win people over with their ideas who feels the need to attack and blame others. We already have enough of that coming from the White House.

A lot of us had high hopes for Radtke and her campaign when she began. Now, she simply scares the hell out of most people. And before the Virginia Beach debate, there was a lot of concern that Radtke was only going to (intentionally) damage Allen and his chances to defeat Tim Kaine. After the debate, most realize that the exuberant “Tweets” from the Kaine campaign echoing every disparaging remark she made about Allen will do them no good in November as Radtke has completely marginalized herself as a fringe, far right candidate with an inexplicable grudge against Allen.

Radtke has expressed bewilderment that the TEA Party has not united behind her. But she has moved so far “out there” that she scares the hell out of them, too.

Radtke began her opening remarks by saying the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Her irrational attacks have not convinced Republicans that they should hire her to represent the party according to poll data.

Perhaps she should have taken her own advice as far as the attacks. She has attacked Allen over and over, yet her poll numbers continue to lag.

Below is a video of the attacks only and they include Bishop Jackson’s comments attempting to bring honor and respect back to the process. See for yourself.

Kudos to Bishop Jackson for his efforts on behalf of Republicans to keep this process civil.

Jamie Radtke opened the debate with her opening remarks and used most of the time to attack George Allen on his past votes and call for a smaller government.

Bishop Jackson’s opening remarks focused on the job losses in Hampton Roads and the military status of the area. Jackson lamented the lack of coverage for his campaign from the local media.

George Allen focused on small business and jobs. And the lack of jobs for young people. Allen envisions a better future through better policies that are pro growth. And he also mentioned his campaign cornerstone American Energy.

Bob Marshall focused on his record of never voting for a tax increase and has never been endorsed by the Washington Post. Marshall filed a lawsuit to stop Tim Kaine’s illegal taxes – and won. Filed the Health Care Freedom Act. Author of the Va. Marriage Act.

We are all set up at the Cavalier Hotel Convention Center on a beautiful weekend overlooking the Atlantic Ocean.

The debate begins at 6:30 PM with the contestants George Allen, E.W. Jackson, Jamie Radtke and Bob Marshall.

Virginia Right is taking video and we will be tweeting with the hash tag #VADEBATE.

A new Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey reveals Virginia US Senate Candidate George Allen is walking away with the Republican nomination. Allen received 66% of the tally while the final entrant into the race Delegate Bob Marshall polled at just 8%. Jamie Radtke, the former head of the Richmond TEA Party has fallen to 3% and Bishop Jackson (who won the debate last Saturday) was at 2%. This poll was taken between April 26 and April 29, so it does not provide a good measure of any effects from the debate.

PPP took a reading in December, 2011 on the Republican Senate Primary race and although Tim Donner and David McCormick have left the race and Marshall has come in, Allen’s support has remained essentially unchanged as the rest of the field fights for the leftovers with none managing to break into double digits. In December, the PPP tally showed Allen at 67%, Radtke at 5%, Jackson at 3% and Donner and McCormick with 2% each.

In February 2012 I wrote:

George Allen has a strong, solid base of support. His time in politics in Virginia has earned him a statewide and loyal base. While there will undoubtedly be some erosion of primary voters from Allen to Marshall, most of those who would support a Bob Marshall for Senate bid would necessarily come from the other three candidates.

And that expectation is reflected by the changes in the polls. Allen’s support was down only 1%, while Radtke lost 2% and Jackson 1%. (Keep in mind that these are small percentages and totally within the margin of error.)

But it appears that Allen’s support remains strong and the others are battling over less than 15% of the vote. With the undecideds at 20% and the likelihood that Allen will get the lions share of those, this primary is little more than a formality.

I called this primary race for George Allen in November 2011 and see no reason to think otherwise as we approach the last month of the primary campaign season.

There is little doubt that the race will tighten, but it will still be a landslide for Allen.

This race will most likely see Allen over 50%, probably in the high 50′s and perhaps he will reach into the 60′s depending on the ratio of undecided voters.  Marshall will probably break 10% to perhaps 15% with Radtke near 10% and Jackson will struggle to get out of the single digits despite strong debate performances.

This same poll shows Allen and Democrat Tim Kaine in a dead heat head to head with the other Republican primary challengers well behind Kaine.

But as I say with most PPP polls, they are a Democratic polling outfit and always tend to lean to the left in the party affiliation of their polls. Their methods for the Republican Primary contest are not easily skewed as they surveyed Republican Primary Voters, which probably means Republicans who are likely primary voters.

But they always tend to over sample Democrats when polling all voters until the election draws closer when they want to be as accurate as possible to maintain some credibility.

And the skew in this poll was no different than their usual.

The model they used is essentially the 2008 presidential vote demographics. Despite Virginia’s move to the right in the 2009, 2010 and 2011 elections, PPP polled 39% Democrats and just 32% Republicans. Most believe the split these days favors Republicans, not Democrats.

PPP obviously has an agenda here, but the good news for the Allen campaign is that even with 7% more Democrats in the survey, Kaine has only a 1% lead. An earlier Roanoke College poll that was pretty evenly balanced showed Allen up by 7% which is probably about where this poll would be if it were done properly.

Allen is catching up to Keine in contributions, but Kaine has already had his “bump” in dollars as he is no longer facing a primary, having convinced the challengers to drop out.

As soon as the formal primary concludes in the Republican nomination process, Allen will see a jump in cash flowing his way.

Early polls are nothing to get too excited about, but Allen is doing well and by most fair measures ahead of Kaine. There is still a lot of work to do once the Primary is over, but George Allen is in the driver’s seat.

This is the link to the latest PPP Poll.

And here is the one from December.

One of the most unsettling bits of news out of Washington DC lately concerns House Majority Leader Eric Cantor and his support for Indiana Senator Dick Lugar.

Normally, we wouldn’t get too concerned over Cantor or any Republican supporting a fellow Republican incumbent.  It is understandable that the decision to support Lugar is not popular to the more Conservative set, but he is a Republican and if Cantor believes he is more of an asset to him, then it is a logical decision for Eric Cantor, albeit

And in the interest of full disclosure, Virginia Right! has endorsed Lugar’s opponent, Richard Mourdock. But that is not important here. (Also, while we are on the subject of full disclosure, Virginia Right! is based in Eric Cantor’s 7th Congressional District. And that is somewhat important here.)

While Cantor does have a primary challenger for the Republican nomination this year, losing his seat in the primary or the general election is considered by most to be highly unlikely.

So, personally, Cantor need not worry about losing his seat, it is safe.

But the dynamics in Virginia this year are unlike any other. The threat from the Progressives is substantial. Defeating these Democrats is the highest priority if the country is to survive.

We will need all hands on deck to defeat Barack Obama and Tim Kaine. Both of these races are dead heats according to the polls. And it is hard to argue with the fact that these are close races, or that Barack Obama will pull out all the stops to elect Tim Kaine who would be an Obama rubber stamp.

But on the ground in Virginia, a number of TEA Party groups stand ready to pitch in and make calls and knock on doors to help persuade voters to vote out Obama and prevent Tim Kaine from becoming Virginia’s Junior Senator.

And despite the mainstream media’s claim that the TEA Party has taken over the Republican Party, which is not even close to the truth, both camps realize that they have a mutual enemy in 2012 – the Progressives. And only by working together can Virginia and the country begin to recover from the loss of liberty and federal power grab by the Obama Administration.

But the TEA Party and Republicans have, in many areas of Virginia, formed a tenuous and fragile alliance for 2012. Without this alliance, Obama and Kaine will most likely win.

Whether deserved or not, Cantor’s recent actions to support candidates like Lugar, Adam Kinzinger in Illinois and Richard Hudson in North Carolina have been perceived by the TEA Party as an effort to keep the more conservative candidates out of government and a direct affront to the TEA Party.

But the thing that TEA Party groups are finding most egregious was a mailing from Cantor’s Super PAC Young Guns that encouraged Democrats to vote for Lugar in the Republican Primary.

According to Politico:

A lit piece that the YG Network dropped focuses, as they’d said it would, on energy policy – but it is targeted to non-Republicans, as it reminds voters that Indiana’s GOP primary is an open one in which Democrats and independents can vote.

“Indiana does not have party registration,” the mail piece says over a picture of a smiling child giving a thumbs-up sign. “You simply need to show up at your polling location on May 8, 2012 to vote for Senator Dick Lugar in the Republican Primary.”

In case anyone didn’t get the point, the piece adds, “You can vote in the May 8th Republican Primary election! The May 8th Election is open to all voters.”

Back home in Virginia, that is not playing well. The Republican Party of Virginia is quite fond of using a “loyalty oath” to prevent crossover votes by Democrats in primary elections. Yet we have Cantor’s PAC pushing Democrats to invade the Republican primary and support Lugar in Indiana.

That has enraged a number of TEA Party members who are now telling me that they are reconsidering knocking on doors and manning Republican phone banks to aid Mitt Romney and presumptive Senate candidate George Allen to a Virginia victory in November.

There may well be few, if any, repercussions to Cantor’s actions in his own reelection bid, but Virginia will need every vote they can muster to keep Tim Kaine and Barack Obama from power. Alienating a large group of grassroots activists who stand ready to help, even if some feel the necessity to hold their nose while doing so, is not particularly helpful, especially in the 2012 election.

And it is hard to imagine that many Virginia Republicans would be willing to accept the election of Dick Lugar if it costs Republicans the Virginia Senate seat. Or worse, the presidency.

On the surface, Cantor’s support of Dick Lugar may seem inconsequential to the elections in Virginia, but there are substantial consequences.

If Tim Kaine and Barack Obama are to be defeated in Virginia, Republicans will need all the help they can get. Independents are important, but the TEA Party and more Libertarian minded voters are the key to victory for Republicans.

The Young Guns are shooting George Allen and Mitt Romney in the foot in Virginia.

ROANOKE, VA – Republican Candidate for US Senate Bishop E.W. Jackson won the first of three debates that the Republican Party of Virginia has planned between now and the Republican Primary on June 12, 2012.

Jackson’s enthusiasm and charisma was in full display as this man of humble beginnings has gone from a foster child to candidate for the United States Senate.

The other candidates, George Allen, Bob Marshall and Jamie Radtke all did well, but we are unable to pick a second place winner from the rest of the field. So we will call it a three way tie for second.

For those not familiar with the candidates, or all of the candidates, we will take a look at the basic issues each presented as the strong suit of their platform and critique the performance of each candidate. After speaking with and listening to all of the candidates on many occasions over the last few years, we will try to present an unbiased review of the four remaining candidates performance at yesterday’s debate and the main points of their individual platforms.

The four candidates have a great deal more in common than they do differences. All are Conservative, passionate about fixing America’s problems and any one of these candidates are far more qualified than the Democratic opponent Tim Kaine who is a puppet at the bidding of Barack Obama.

(In alphabetical order.)

George Allen

Platform – The basic tenets of George Allen’s platform is perhaps the most unique of the group. Allen has made the main foundation of his platform Energy. Specifically, low cost, abundant American Energy. And this includes oil, coal, natural gas, nuclear as well as the newer, less mature “green” energies and emerging renewable energy technologies. And specifically, Virginia’s abundant wealth of cheap energy such as coal and off shore petroleum, which the Obama Administration has failed to take advantage of, and worse, has essentially shut down.

Allen’s platform realizes that abundant, low cost clean energy is the basic foundation of jobs and economic growth. And as a Virginia US Senator, Allen plans to push the natural resources of Virginia as well as the rest of the nation in the quest for energy independence. With the Obama Administration insisting on technologies that drive up the cost of energy already killing jobs, many of our other problems, like the debt, are directly related to the loss of jobs as government has to spend more and more for basic American welfare needs and collects less and less in taxes with the high rate of unemployment.

Allen believes that with full development of the energy resources we have that the debt and other problems facing the country will be dramatically different with the jobs that will come from American Energy.

Debate Performance – George Allen is the most well known of the candidates having served in the Virginia Legislature, as Governor of the Commonwealth and as US Senator. Over the years, Allen has been a strong Conservative and he has compiled a history that is well known to most Virginians. Allen came off in the debate as he always does. He is the person you are comfortable sitting down with and discussing the problems facing the world. Allen presented his argument for energy as the likable neighbor who has been a friend for many years. His delivery is heavy on common sense and focused on the future and the role energy must play if America is to recover. Allen had the greatest focus on defeating Tim Kain in yesterday’s debate and it was clear his main focus was on two things. Fixing America and defeating Kaine. His answers to most questions were based both on what he has done in the past and what he plans to do in the future as a Senator. His strong suit is his experience and his knowledge of the evolution of America’s problems. And knowing how we arrived in the mess we find ourselves is an important consideration in how to fix the problems.

Negative Remarks – Allen had nothing negative to say about any of the other Candidates (unless you count Tim Kaine). He was the recipient of several “barbs” from candidate Jamie Radtke and only used his allotted time to respond to one of the negative remarks which was about his 4 votes to raise the debt ceiling. He defended the votes as necessary to properly equip the troops involved in the wars overseas and pointed out that the votes were for increases of a far smaller scale than what has occurred under the current Administration.

Summary – Allen did not “knock the ball out of the park” on any question, gave full answers and did not “dodge” or fail to answer any of the questions. His performance was exactly as most expected: steady and well considered. He was very comfortable with the venue and did nothing to hurt his standing as the front runner and would not have hurt his chances among the undecided in the room, but probably did not do much to persuade undecided to move his way. In all, a good, solid performance in which he communicated his platform well.

Bishop E.W. Jackson

Platform – E.W. Jackson’s platform as he explained it yesterday is fully TEA Party compatible. Jackson is a strong advocate of smaller government and less federal intervention in our lives. He is an opponent of tax increases and favors major spending cuts including eliminating several departments including the EPA and the Department of Education and others. Smaller government, lower taxes and a strict adherence to the Constitution. He supports Social Security reform and was the only candidate to offer models by Chile and other places as potential remedies to our broken system.

Debate Performance – As previously stated, Jackson won the debate with his fiery charisma and a rock solid performance. Of the four candidates, Jackson is the only one that word “charisma” even springs to mind. His passion for America is infectious and he never hesitates or searches for words. His speeches (and I have seen many) are well received in both TEA Party circles as well as Republican groups. Instantly likable and quickly relates to the audience. He begins by letting the group know that he is not an African-American, he is an American. Jackson is the least experienced of the group in politics, but presents a strong case and is impossible to scratch off of the list. He is no “novelty” as a writer for the Times Dispatch described him. He leaves no doubt that he would be a force to contend with if elected.

Negative Remarks – Unless you count Obama, Jackson did not attack any of the other candidates and none attacked him.

Summary – Jackson answered every question fully and did not dodge any. By far the most consistently positive of the candidates. Stayed on message and clearly articulated his position on every question. Used humor, fire and knowledge to make his case. For the undecided in the room, Jackson probably picked up the most voters who were looking for a good, solid candidate to support.

Bob Marshall

Platform – Bob Marshall’s platform is clearly the Constitution and the Federalist Papers. If it is not in the Constitution, Marshall does not support the Federal Government doing it – whatever “it” is. And Marshall is also running on his record as a Virginia Delegate and there is no argument or ambiguity about his consistent adherence to the Constitution and limited government. Marshall will not go along with the status quo  and walk the line for anyone, his party or not, if he believes something is unconstitutional in the strictest sense. And his record proves it.

Debate Performance – If you have never heard Bob Marshall speak, you really need to at some point. At first blush, you will probably think him a bit “off the wall” and some even say “out there” but as you listen, you will find that Bob Marshall has an encyclopedic knowledge of all things government. The Constitution is one of his strong suits, but he has a depth of understanding of Parliamentarian Procedures and laws. He is like a wizard that can pull a long forgotten rule or law out of his hat in an instant. He has an amazing memory for these things and will (and has) confounded friend and foe with this knowledge. Marshall used examples of bills he has written and pushed through as his strongest argument for why voters should send him to Washington. He tossed in a few jokes like “I thought the TSA was a jobs program for out of work urologists” and a few others. He came off as knowledgeable and likable. And perhaps the most eccentric of the bunch, but in a good way.

Negative Remarks – Marshall struck a doubtful chord about Jamie Radtke’s “My 2 Cents” plan to balance the Federal Budget and jokingly poked George Allen saying “this may be the first time I have ever been to the left of George Allen” referencing his position on the platform and leaving open the political meaning. Not really negative in a “bad” way.

Summary – Bob Marshall is what Ron Paul would be if Paul were an Evangelical. Marshall is both fiscally and socially conservative. He advocates impeaching any Federal Judge that upholds same sex marriage. Marshall is a deeply religious man with a profound love for the Constitution. His social stance would probably turn off Libertarians, but Marshall is very much in line with the Libertarian line of thought in all things except the social issues. His lone jab at Radtke is a tell that he sees her supporters as most likely to move to him, if they were to move at all. And to be sure, his entry into the race has seen some Radtke supporters considering Marshall’s experience as a plus as the two have nearly identical positions on the Constitution, however Radtke is less “enthusiastic” on the social issues. (But she is definitely a social conservative.) Marshall may have made a case to undecided voters who had not heard him speak and who may have been leaning to Radtke. However, Jackson probably come out on top with the “leaning” undecided.

Jamie Radtke

Platform – Having heard Jamie Radtke speak dozens of times going back to her days leading the Richmond TEA Party, she has not wavered or changed a thing. She is truly consistent in her message that federal spending and the debt are the most pressing issues facing America today. As previously mentioned, she is a Social Conservative but sees the debt as the most imminent threat to the country. Cutting spending and balancing the budget are her top platform priorities. Her “My 2 Cents” economic plan will balance the budget in 5 years.

Debate Performance – Radtke is a good public speaker. She has a focused and clear message about government spending and articulated that well. She is passionate about this and left no doubt in the minds of those in attendance. She is a Mom and connected with parents in the crowd who share her concern for their children’s future. Her comments about the Federal Government using fear of losing Social Security year after year as a reason to move to a “self-directed” system for younger people was well received by both the young as well as the more “seasoned” attendees. She predicted that the government run student loan program would fail and that the free market was a better option. She was the only candidate to mention the importance of the second amendment, although there was no question specifically asking about gun rights. She emphasized that she came from a military family growing up and the senate needs the kind of discipline that was instilled in her.

Negative Remarks – Radtke took the opportunity to directly attack George Allen’s record in her responses to 3 of the 7 questions asked in the debate. None of the other candidates went negative with the exception of Bob Marshall’s doubts about Radtke’s “My 2 Cents” plan.

Summary – As always, Jamie Radtke clearly made her case as being focused on spending and debt in the country. She knows what she is talking about and gave numerous examples of government limiting our liberty from what we feed our kids to outlawing Bible study in our own homes. While the other candidates used a bit of humor in their answers, Radtke stayed completely focused and, perhaps “stiff” and not as personable as the other candidates. On the many occasions that I have heard her speak, she usually tosses in a humorous and lighthearted jab at Obama or someone else to help connect with the audience. If this is the first time someone heard Radtke speak, they might have come away with the perception that she was not as “at ease” with the group and somewhat humorless, which is a complete misconception. And while some people detest negative campaigning, it clearly works. And Radtke sees Allen as the obstacle to her nomination and is using the attacks to draw a contrast with her fiscally conservative position and some of his past votes. This may have hurt her a bit among the undecided in the group, but may serve to hold on to her supporters and keep them from drifting to Marshall or Jackson.

Conclusion

The Republican Party of Virginia did a good job of putting on this debate, which was not actually a debate, but a good side by side comparison of the four candidates answering the same questions. The winner was E.W. Jackson who may have picked up a few undecided voters here with a strong, charismatic performance. There were no losers and Virginia should be proud that we have four strong conservative candidates running against an Obama puppet Tim Kaine. I believe that this format that RPV and the candidates agreed upon gave primary voters a good opportunity to see the differences (and similarities) in the candidates without giving the Democrats any ammunition that they can use against the eventual Republican nominee. There are arguments that this format benefits one candidate or another, but the fact is, the format will benefit the eventual Republican candidate and the primary voters without helping the other side. Kudos to Pat Mullins and all four of the candidates for agreeing to this.

Each candidate offers a varying amount of political experience. So voters looking for strong experience and knowledge will find George Allen and Bob Marshall well positioned to their taste. And for those looking for a non politician to send to Washington, Jamie Radtke and E.W. Jackson fill the bill quite nicely.

All see Obama and his policies as a true threat to the nation and all have plans and ideas to return America to a great and prosperous nation.

Some states have had a problem finding a good candidate to run against Senate Democrats up for reelection or retiring. Virginia has a problem of picking between four outstanding individuals, all well suited for the Office of US Senator.

The next debate is May 11, 2012 in Virginia Beach and I look forward to covering that one and offering my thoughts and opinions afterwards.

If you would like more information on any of the candidates, please visit their campaign websites:

George Allen

E.W. Jackson

Bob Marshall

Jamie Radtke

Opening statements – 2 minutes each.

George Allen, E.W. Marshall, Bob Marshall, Jamie Radtke

Question 1 to Allen:

Debt limit has been increased over 17 times. If elected, would you vote to increase the limit.

Allen: Now is different. The Amount of debt has increased under Obama. Our credit was downgraded. Deficits over $1 Trillion. When Allen left, deficits were $160 Billion.

Balanced budget, line item veto. No increase without reforms.

To Jackson – No vote to increase debt – unless National Security. We must cut spending. Balance budget. Get rid of Dept of Education, EPA, and others. We must cut spending.

To Marshall – In 2009, Marshall voted against stimulus. Kaine wanted more spending. We can do a line item veto now. Balanced budget takes 34 states. Match expenses to revenues.

To Radtke – Deal with spending – nothing else matters. Would balance the budget in 5 years. Her plan – My $.02 cents. DOE, Education, others unnecessary. Attacks Allen for earmarks. Attacks Allen for debt increases.

Question 2: Would you have voted for Justices Kagan or Sotomajor?

Jackson – No. Both unqualified.

Marshall – No.

Radtke – No. Would not vote for either. Balance of power needs to go back to the states.

Allen: No. Would vote against both. Wants judges that will uphold the Constitution.

Question 3 – What would you do to fix social security.

Marshall – Less than 3 workers per retiree. Abortion made it worse. Must find something else for young people.

Radtke – Raise age and self direct retirement. Feds use fear, take Social Security away to stop this. It will be painful to fix these programs.

Allen – A report said Social Security will run out of money 3 years earlier because economy is so bad. Democrats will demagogue. Raise age for younger. Will not raise Social Security taxes. Preserve for those on social security.

Jackson – Social Security is scared. However, we must fix Social Security. Chile allows investing, why not USA?

Question: How would you fix the student loan program?

Radtke – Federal Gvt will fail running student loans. Stop picking winners and losers. Get out of mortgage banking. Attacks Allen again.

Allen – Provided to reserves and guard. Tuition is skyrocketing. 50% of grads under or un employed. He froze tuition. Kaine cut higher ed funding and costs went up. Students need jobs!

Jackson – We need to return to Constitution. Feds should not be in the student loan business. Costs go up if the government foots the bill. Need to get the economy going so kids can work their way through school.

Marshall – Worked his way through school. Obamacare puts demands on medical professionals. Loans should be made by the parents, not students. Private sector.

Question: Was Dept of Homeland Security a good idea?

Allen – Debt was due to security spending while he was in office. He thinks Homeland Security was necessary because information was not shared. It is needed and is a primary responsibility of the Federal Government.

Jackson – Has no problem with the department, but dislikes the TSA and groping. Problems with Patriot Act.

Marshall – Thought TSA was jobs for out of work urologists. Marshall put in HB 1160 to prevent state from helping feds with unconstitutional detention. Problem with info sharing was a Janet Reno idea to stop sharing.

Radtke – CIA< FBI, DOD, State Dept – problem was with more government. Must be careful with infringement on civil liberty. Must be stopped. 2nd Amendment the best defence.

Question – Do you support the Defense of Marriage Act

Jackson – Yes. Marriage is a sacred right between a man and woman. It is sad we even need such an act. Family most basic institution of our culture. Family is the best institution for children. Must protect the sanctity of the family.

Marshall – Obama does not recognize the stats exist. Impeach judges who do not uphold marriage. Impeach judges that approve same sex marriage. Holder is a disgrace for not upholding this.

Radtke – Supports. One man and one woman. The assault is on the family by the Federal government. Tells you what light bulb, what to feed kids, no home Bible study. We must draw the line. No more.

Allen – Supports DoMA. One man, one woman. Allows states to protect their views and values. Family more important than any government institution. High fuel effecting families.

Question: Do you endorse Mitt Romney?

Marshall: Will support the winner.

Radtke: Will support the winner. Election about spending.

Allen: Looks like Romney will

be the winner and he will support the winner. Differences between Romney and Allen and Obama and Tim Kaine. Balanced budget. Congress must live under the same laws. Allow Va to use our own energy resources.

Jackson – Romney was not his first choice, but will support the winner as a faithful Marine: “Reporting for duty, sir!”

Closing Statements:

Radtke: We must deal with spending or nothing else matters. Grew up in a military family. Discipline. Faith. American values. Senate needs discipline. Will honor her oath to defend the Constitution.

Marshall – Never been to the left of Allen (a joke). Marshall will do the same thing in Washington he has done in Richmond. Opposes increases, opposed shifting funds. Disagrees with Radtke’s 2% plan, says it won’t work. Will defend the Constitution. Running to serve the people, not himself.

Jackson – What a country. From foster kid to senate candidate. The voters decide who goes against Tim Kaine. Liberalism is evil  – this is a battle of good against evil. We must unify.

Allen – Has been a good debate. Optimistic because of freedom. A God given birthright. Opportunities limited by overspending and regulations. Trust free people to take control of their lives. Freedom to use American Energy. About rationed health care. Aout the right to work without paying union dues. Votr for Allen for a rebirth of freedom.

Henrico, VA – George Allen issued the following statement on the re-authorization of the Violence Against Women Act.

“I support the Violence Against Women Act.  It is a law that I voted for in the past and it should be reauthorized.  My hope is that it doesn’t get bogged down in the Washington mentality of turning anything and everything into a political football during an election year.  I have always had a strong record of holding criminals accountable for their violent acts as well as protecting the victims of crime.”

US Senator Ron Johnson and George Allen at Bill's BBQ in Richmond

On Friday, Virginia US Senate Candidate George Allen brought a special guest – Wisconsin US Senator Ron Johnson – who also endorsed Allen at the meeting of local small businesses and entrepreneurs. The meeting was held at Bill’s Barbecue where President and daughter of the founder Rhonda Elliott recently announced that she was being forced to close 5 of their 8 locations. (And for the record, I had the minced BBQ and the onion rings as I have ordered for decades! Still great!)

Ms. Elliott cited higher costs due to higher delivery surcharges from rising oil prices as well as fewer customers as the reason for her decision to downsize.

There were several small business owners and entrepreneurs gathered at Bill’s Barbecue to discuss the challenges facing small businesses today. Of course ObamaCare and overly burdensome regulations were a major concern of everyone in general, and EPA regulations were of great concern to several attendees from the Heating and Air Conditioning field.

But the most common thread also happens to be one of the areas where George Allen has far more expertise than most. Before stepping down to run for US Senate, George Allen was with the American Energy Freedom Center, a group dedicated to solving America’s energy problems once and for all.

In this video, you will see how Allen totally grasps the connection between energy prices and jobs in this country. It was noted during the meeting that one restaurant – now out of business – noted a marked decline in the number of diners when the price of gasoline hit $3.29 or higher.

And with Obama’s EPA essentially outlawing clean coal, one of the most abundant sources of energy in America, and shutting down drilling on Federal lands, we are suffering from a complete lack of an energy policy in America.

And Senator Johnson has a message to Virginians! “Send me an ally! Send me George Allen!”

My friends over at Bearing Drift have a vote up now for the Virginia Senate race featuring George Allen, Jamie Radtke, Bob Marshall and E.W. Jackson.

Who do you support in the primary?

Click here to cast your vote and see the results.

The following is a press release from the Republican Party of Virginia. No mention of David McCormick so it seems that he was unable to come up with the 10,000 signatures to be placed on the Republican Primary ballot.

Congratulations to the 4 candidates that will be on the ballot!

From RPV:

At 5:03 p.m. today, the Republican Party of Virginia took possession of the petitions filed by 4 candidates seeking to be placed on the June 12 U.S. Senate Republican Primary Ballot.

According to sworn affidavits filed by the candidates with the Virginia State Board of Elections, RPV is in possession of the following number of signatures:

Jamie Radtke: 21,522
George Allen: 26,869
Bob Marshall: 17,133
E.W. Jackson: 11,188

The four Republican candidates who have filed petitions submitted a grand total of 76,712 signatures. RPV will begin the petition certification process at 9 a.m. tomorrow.

US Senate Candidate George Allen has a new site to calculate the money you are spending on a fill up now as opposed to when Barack Obama took office. The website is Too Much at the Pump and it is a nifty little applet to see how much more a tank of gas costs you today.

Interesting, but I think there is more to the story.

According to various sources around the internet, Americans drive an average of 16 miles to work – each way.

According to the Department of Transportation, the average car gets 22.4 miles per gallon. SUV’s average 18 MPG, but we will only consider the average car. If you drive an SUV, it is even worse.

On a 16 mile one-way commute, the average driver, at 22.4 MPG, will use 371.4 gallons of gas every year going to and from work. And if you are married, and your spouse works and commutes in a separate car, the gallons double to 748.8 gallons per year for your family.

This is only for commuting and earning money.

When Barack Obama took over in 2009 gas cost an average of $1.85 per gallon. Now that average cost is $3.87 per gallon!

So let’s break that down into numbers we can all relate to. How much more are we spending on gas?

This table shows the details.

This tells the story of what Obama has allowed to happen to gas prices.

Now let’s look at some ways you can offset these increased costs. Because we all know that in the Obama economy you are lucky to have a job, let alone ask for a raise. So we must cut somewhere else.

At $1,512.58 per year, you and your spouse could give up vacations from now on.

At $126.05 per month, you and your spouse could do without your cell phone and cable TV.

At $4.24 per day extra, you and your spouse could skip lunch every other day.

If Obama wasn’t president and someone with a sound energy policy was in charge, you could have bought a 55 inch Toshiba flat screen TV from Best Buy instead of pouring your TV right into the gas tank the past year.

You could have put that money into a college savings plan for your children. Or a retirement plan for your self.

Obama has said that there is no “silver bullet”. Democrats say the president is not to blame and can do nothing about the price of gasoline.

Nancy Pelosi blames Wall Street:

“Wall Street profiteering, not oil shortages, is the cause of the price spike,” Pelosi said in a statement. “Unfortunately, Republicans have chosen to protect the interests of Wall Street speculators and oil companies instead of the interests of working Americans by obstructing the agencies with the responsibility of enforcing consumer protection laws.”

One after another, Democrats line up to blame anybody but Obama for the high prices. They seem to particularly blame the nameless and faceless “speculators” for high oil prices, high food prices and anything else that they can’t blame on Republicans.

But when George W. Bush was president, who did the Democrats blame? Apparently a Republican President has powers that Democratic Presidents simply don’t have when it comes to gas prices.

Here is what Nancy Peloisi had to say when prices went up under Bush:

That “failed” energy policy!

Shame on Bush.

But that was before Obama pumped billions and billions of taxpayer dollars into Green Energy Companies like Solyndra and many others that failed and poured taxpayer treasure into electric cars like the Chevy Volt that not only caught on fire,

but the Obama Administration hid the problem  and now the beloved Liberalmobile has shut down production.

And Obama has shut down offshore drilling and permitting, caved to radical “greenies” and stopped the Keystone XL Pipeline and even shut down coal plants.

And Obama claims to have an “All of the Above” energy strategy as his energy secretary Chu was for $8 “European” gas prices before he was against them.

But I will go along with blaming “speculators” for the oil prices. On that, I can agree with the left.

But the speculators are only responding to the policies that tend to set the prices. When Bush decided to push drilling, the logic says that the price will go down. So speculators placed their bets on prices falling, and like a self fulfilling prophecy, prices dropped.

So, when Obama wants to push green energy and at the same time destroy oil, natural gas and coal energy to cause the price to rise in the hope that green energy will finally be seen as a viable alternative, speculators fulfill this self fulfilling prophecy as well.

Obama wants the price of carbon based energy to rise to to make it competitive with “green” energy. We all get that.

The logical way to make green energy acceptable is to make it affordable compared to the alternatives. There are two ways to do this. Create green products that cost the same as carbon based products, or drive up the price of the carbon based competition.

Progressives like Obama like instant gratification. They are the “I want it now” crowd that is incapable of using logic and reason to get where they want to go. And their impatience is always their downfall.

They wanted Healthcare and they wanted it now. As a result, they crammed through an ugly monstrosity that is extremely unpopular and unaffordable. It fails to use logic and common sense and uses force and mandates to achieve the goal – which we all know is Government Provided, Single Payer Universal Coverage. And even though the things people will like, such as no limits, free stuff and no preexisting conditions were front loaded, it is still unpopular. And it has driven up costs and will eventually force Insurance Companies to close and Employers to decide against providing coverage. We all see what is happening.

And the energy policy follows the same mold. In fact, every things this Administration does uses the same cookie-cutter mold to destroy what they don’t like and force things they like upon the public. It is all about eliminating choices.

And they pretend to be pro-choice.

Prices for health coverage went up and Obama blames others. Prices for oil, gas and all forms of energy rise, and he is not to blame.

How high will the price of gas go? $10? $20? More?

Yes. It will go up so high that we will all be forced to move into high density communities, subject ourselves to complete and total government control because we have no choices, and learn to enjoy the new reality.

And when Obama said “Yes we can!” you didn’t understand what he thinks he can do, did you?

If you want cheaper gas, the only answer is to tell Obama in November “No you can’t”.

Or just “Hell No!”

Because if you think gas, healthcare and food is expensive now, just wait until Obama finishes his second term. We will long for the days of $5 gas and cheap food. It will only get worse.

Far worse.

Well, last Thursday was a day like most any other. I had an afternoon conference call with Senator Rand Paul to discuss the new budget plan the Republicans are releasing, then I hopped in the car and drove over to the campaign Headquarters of US Senate Candidate George Allen and proceeded to “crash” his birthday Party.

Well, not exactly crash. I was invited to a blogger’s event that apparently didn’t materialize due to scheduling issues. But nobody told me!

Oops.

After a few embarrassed apologies from some red-faced staffers, I told them it was no big deal. I’d catch up with Governor Allen many more times before the primary. If you haven’t noticed, he is pretty much everywhere these days! And he is scheduled to speak at the local Republican Committee meeting this week as part of an ongoing “meet the candidate” series that featured Candidate Jamie Radtke the previous meeting.

It seems that after a quick celebration of the Governor’s birthday (it was the silver anniversary of his 35th birthday!) featuring campaign manager Mike Allen paying off on a money bomb “bet” (they hit the goal!) by singing happy birthday, the Governor had a radio call in spot to do and then off to another event.

I was fine with heading on to my next appointment that day a bit early, but George Allen wouldn’t hear of it.

After the not too bad serenade, George Allen wolfed down a bit of birthday cake (Susan – he skipped most of the icing) he called me into his office to chat a bit before he had to call into the radio show.

Well, I mentioned in the title that I had a conference call with Senator Rand Paul to discuss the Senator’s budget plan entitled “A Platform to Revitalize America: Senator Rand Paul’s Balanced Budget for FY2013“.

The plan balances the budget in 5 years by reducing spending $11 Trillion Dollars over President Obama’s massive and bloated budget. The plan not only balances the budget, but achieves a $111 Billion surplus by 2017.

One of the more intriguing aspects of the plan is the total elimination of Medicare in favor of placing Seniors on the exact same medical plan that Congress uses. One thing that Republicans tend to do with entitlement reform is actually offer plans to fix them and allow them to remain solvent. Unfortunately, this approach involves spending less money and gives Democrats an opportunity to use scare tactics – especially with the elderly. You know how they like the optics of pushing old people in wheelchairs over a cliff.

But when a congressman actually invites the elderly to enjoy the same plan that they use, well, Democrats are going to look pretty silly trying to trash that one.

I discussed this aspect of the plan with Allen a bit, but the Governor had not seen anything on the plan, so it is unfair to ask him to comment on the record on something he has not seen. But the plan also eliminates several departments such as the Department of Commerce, Education (retains Pell Grants) HUD and Energy – but transfers nuclear research and weapons to DOD. And it privatizes the TSA, repeals ObamaCare and Dodd-Frank, opens ANWR for oil and gas exploration and permits the XL Pipeline.

I asked Senator Paul to expand on the Medicare aspect and it should be noted that per senior annual expenditures go from $11,000 per person to $7,000 per person while out of pocket expenses and co-pays go down. It is pretty amazing what free markets can do!

Here is a copy of the highlights.

So after a few minutes, it was time for Allen to call into a radio station for an interview. Taking that as my cue to leave, I began to rise. George Allen put the call on speaker and told me to have a seat.

I was OK with that!

Unfortunately, the telephone speaker was not cooperating with radio technology and the former Governor was forced to pick up the receiver. It was a bit awkward only hearing one end of the conversation, but I could pretty much guess the questions by the answers.

But one got pretty heated.

“I refuse to discuss internal personnel issues,” Allen said sternly.

Had I missed something? Did someone leave the Allen campaign that escaped my radar? (Mike Allen’s ‘Happy Birthday’ rendition wasn’t a firing offense, was it?)

George continued “Ill only say the Redskins need work at the Quarterback position.”

Ahhh. This was about Peyton Manning. In the interest of full disclosure I have been a Colt’s fan since Johnny Unitas was their QB. So, Manning is a hot topic with me and there was speculation that the Redskins may be interested, but Denver seems to have the upper hand right now.

After his interview ended, we discussed football a bit more and moved to Energy. George Allen is an expert on the subject and I mentioned that there was a vote in the Senate (according to Senator Paul) on bypassing President Obama’s decision to bow to pressure from radical environment groups and kill the XL Pipeline which would bring Canadian oil to American refineries providing jobs and a much needed oil supply from a friendly nation.

As we were talking, the vote came in. The measure failed, but managed 57 votes. It needed 60, but that indicated there was some Democratic support.

And Allen started enumerating the names of the Democrats he thought probably voted for the pipeline and was spot on with all of his “guesses”. He is familiar with the jobs and energy situation in every state and instinctively knew which Democrats would be natural allies on energy issues.

As we left the Parham Road Headquarters, a thought occurred to me.

A number of people take issue with Washington “insiders” and politicians in general. The fact that the radio host asked George Allen about Peyton Manning and the Redskins made me think. Allen could also be considered a football insider. His knowledge, experience and opinions are what makes radio show hosts ask his opinion on Manning. When have you ever heard anyone ask Tim Kaine about football? The truth is, it is not his area of expertise (although I’m not sure what his area of expertise might be). But Allen’s opinion matters.

And to those who think a Washington “insider” is not qualified to run the country, why should politics be different than football?

I watched the wheels turn in Allen’s head as wondered if the Senate Republicans had squeezed every Democratic vote out on the XL Pipeline.

It might not be popular these days to be considered an insider, but there is value in the experience and knowledge that comes with being an insider.

When is the last time you heard anyone ask Peyton Manning his opinion on the XL Pipeline?

There are two kinds of polls.

Those intended to “take the pulse” and get an accurate picture, and those skewed to attempt to influence thoughts and opinions.

Political candidates hire pollsters to get an accurate picture of how they are doing, where they are doing well, and where they need improvement.

These are the important ones.

Others run polls and intentionally skew the results to give the perception that their side is winning.

A recent NBC News-Marist Poll is a case study for polls trying to change the public perception that one candidate is falling behind.

A few days ago, Roanoke College came out with a poll showing George Allen rising to an 8 point advantage over Tim Kaine.

I am skeptical of all polls until I look at the numbers behind them. I am not interested in knowing the results of a poll that is not truly reflective the voters. I want the truth.

The Roanoke College poll was pretty well balanced. I like polls to have over 1,000 as a sample size, but if not, the ratios must be tightly controlled. Roanoke College passed my smell test. Based on the sample, I agree that Allen looks to have an 8 point lead, perhaps a bit less, but at least 5 points.

So when I saw a poll this weekend showing Tim Kaine had jumped to a 10 point lead, either something horrible had happened with the Allen that I had missed, or Kaine was Sainted.

Well, neither had happened. So I looked at the numbers behind the Marist Poll.

The quick answer came in the number of Democrats vs. the number of Republicans sampled.

In the Roanoke College poll, the mix of Republicans (30%), Democrats (28%) and Independents (31%) was pretty good. Virginia is pretty evenly split these days with the past couple of elections leaning a bit more to the Republican side.

And how evenly did the Marist Poll split the leanings? Well, not good at all. Those identifying as either a Democrat or leaning Democrat totaled 50%, Republican 36% and Independent just 14%.

So what gives with that? I can promise you that if this was a representative sample the Virginia Senate would not be in a 20-20 tie!

But even skewed polls tell us something.

Each candidate will get the majority of votes from their own party as well as a percentage of the Independents.

With 50% Democrats sampled in the poll, you would expect that Kaine would get most of the Democrats and some of the Independents. You would also expect the same from Allen. And if we consider the Democrats who will vote for Allen a wash with the Republicans who will vote for Kaine, we would expect Kaine to get 50% plus a few Indy’s and Allen to get 36% plus a few Indy’s.

So how did our Senate Candidates do?

Allen did pretty much as you could predict. 39%. All of the Republicans and some of the Indy’s.

And Kaine? He only got 48% which indicates that he does not even get all of the Democrats and none of the Indy’s.

So if this poll were properly weighted to reflect the actual political landscape of Virginia, Allen would have at least a 6 point lead over Kaine.

NBC News releasing such a skewed poll is no surprise. The fact that Marist would release such a skewed poll and risk damage to their reputation as a polling firm either means they are also in the Democrat’s tank or NBC paid them a lot of money for this.

Marist Polls normally doesn’t play politics this much.

They should really be ashamed of conducting such a biased poll and not at least attempting to weight the poll to reflect reality.

I have saved this poll to my archives. I will be watching Marist Polls more closely in the future.

And if they continue this pattern of skewed results, I might suggest a slight name change.

MarXist Polls sounds appropriate.

Roanoke College has released a new poll of Virginians that shows the presumptive Republican Candidate for US Senate George Allen increasing his lead over Democrat Tim Kaine 45% to 37%.

As always, I look at the numbers behind the polls to see if they pass my “believability” test, or if the results are skewed and need to be “normalized”.

This poll passes with only 1 bit of criticism, sample size.

I am not a fan of polls involving less than 1,000 respondents and this poll interviewed only 607. But to the credit of the Roanoke College, they did a few things that I believe more than make up for a smaller sample size.

One was including cell phones in the sample. 24% of those called were on cells. And they also rotated the order of the candidate names.

And the mix of Republicans (30%), Democrats (28%) and Independents (31%) was pretty good.

My conclusion is that Virginians are beginning to move away from Kaine and towards Allen. In a September 2011 poll, Allen led Kaine 42% to 39% which shows movement away from Kaine and towards Allen.

Interestingly, as voters move towards Allen compared to the Roanoke College September poll, they are moving towards Obama who had 36% compared to Romney’s 44% in September and now stands at 42% to Romney’s 43%.

That runs counter to the argument that if Obama does well in Virginia, Kaine will do well.

This poll indicates that Virginian’s prefer Allen to Kaine – even if more prefer Obama to Romney.

That is really bad news for Tim Kaine who is hoping for strong support for Obama to help him in November.

US Senate Candidate George Allen just released a new video showing Tim Kaine’s unrelenting servitude to Barack Obama’s failed economic plan. But then, that’s Kaine-sian Economics at work. The left’s rich friends with ties to failed “green” energy schemes like Solyndra keep getting richer on taxpayer funded handouts. And Timmy Kaine remains the top cheerleader for failure.

From Governor Allen:

Henrico, VA – On the eve of the third anniversary of the passage of the failed $800 billion stimulus, the George Allen for U.S. Senate Campaign today released its newest web video entitled, “I’m Doing What The President Wants Me To Do,” highlighting Tim Kaine’s loyal, unabashed support for President Obama and his agenda, which has led to an unprecedented spending binge in Washington over the last three years.

Chairman Kaine campaigned across the nation claiming the $800 billion failed stimulus would “help jump-start the economy” as well as “create or save over 3 million jobs.”   Instead, Americans have endured 36 straight months of unemployment over 8%, Washington is now borrowing $48,000 a second, and we have seen the first ever downgrade of the U.S. credit rating.

“’I'm doing what the President wants me to do,’ those are Tim Kaine’s words, not mine.  On every major issue over the past several years, Chairman Kaine has been in lockstep with President Obama and out of step with Virginia families and small business owners,” said Dan Allen, Allen campaign senior advisor.  “And now he’s running to be President Obama’s Senator, not Virginia’s.”

Transcript:

TIM KAINE: Hello everyone, I’m Tim Kaine.

PRES. OBAMA: Former Governor of Virginia and one of my greatest friends.

TIM KAINE: I’m an unabashed supporter of the President.

SUPER: President Obama’s Senator. Tim Kaine.  Unabashed support for the $800 billion failed stimulus.

TIM KAINE: … a stimulus plan that will help jumpstart the economy …

SUPER:  JUMPSTART

PRES. OBAMA: … a major milestone on our road to recovery.

SUPER: MAJOR MILESTONE

SUPER: 36 straight months. Unemployment over 8%.

TIM KAINE: We’ll create or save more than 3 million jobs.

PRES. OBAMA: It will save or create more than 3.5 million jobs over the next two years.

SUPER: Factcheck.org [MASTHEAD]: “Stimulus Has FAILED To Live Up To Initial Expectations”

TIM KAINE: I’m doing what the President wants me to do.

SUPER:  “I’m doing what the President wants me to do”

SUPER:  We know, Tim.  But what about us?

Former Virginia Governor and Senator George Allen released the following statement today concerning Tim Kaine’s support of President Obama’s decision to kill the Keystone XL pipeline.

Tim Kaine Still Putting the Obama Agenda Ahead of Jobs and Affordable Energy

Henrico, VA – After months of silence, yesterday Tim Kaine predictably sided with President Obama on the decision to reject the permit for the Keystone Pipeline and echoed his justification for saying no to jobs and energy at a time when Americans are facing high unemployment and rising gasoline prices.

In response to Tim Kaine’s support for President Obama’s decision, costing Americans thousands of good-paying jobs and a steady, reliable supply of affordable energy from our closest neighbor and ally, Senator Bill Carrico (R-Galax) and Delegates Terry Kilgore (R-Gate City) and Ron Villanueva (R-Virginia Beach) issued the following statements:

“Tim Kaine has a long track record of supporting President Obama’s punishing energy policies that are driving up costs and destroying jobs,” said Senator Bill Carrico (R-Galax).  “Justifying President Obama’s decision to reject this job-creating energy project proves that he would rather defend the Administration’s failed policies than fight for the best interests of Virginia.   It’s disappointing that Tim Kaine would choose to stand with President Obama while families and businesses across the Commonwealth are burdened with high fuel costs in this struggling economy.  George Allen understands the importance of affordable energy resources to Virginia’s economy and the good-paying energy jobs they provide, and he will work as Senator to make sure we’re taking steps to improve our energy security, not undermine it with counterproductive policies and harmful regulations.”

“It shouldn’t surprise anyone that Tim Kaine is a reflex liberal who is just toeing the Obama line on energy policy,” said Delegate Terry Kilgore (R-Gate City). “Virginia and America need to be less dependent on foreign sources of oil and we should be encouraging increased production and supply from our close allies in North America.  The fact that Tim Kaine and President Obama would turn their back on American jobs at a time when our economy is in such shambles shows just how out of touch they really are.”

“Tim Kaine’s decision to side with President Obama in rejecting the Keystone Pipeline, and consequently thousands of American jobs and more affordable energy, is disappointing, but not surprising,” said Delegate Ron Villanueva (R-Virginia Beach).  “For Tim Kaine this is just the latest example in a long pattern of following President Obama’s lead, making it clear that he is running to be a Senator for President Obama, not the people of Virginia.  With unemployment stuck above 8% for months on end and high fuel prices continuing to hurt Virginia families and businesses, we need a voice in Washington that will represent Virginia values.  George Allen will fight every day to unleash our energy resources for jobs and security and that’s why we need him in the U.S. Senate.”

By putting partisan politics ahead of American jobs and energy, this is just another example of Tim Kaine running to be Senator for President Obama, while George Allen will be Senator for families and small business owners of Virginia.

Richmond, VA – Today, the George Allen for U.S. Senate campaign announced a strong fundraising quarter raising $1,062,132 in the last 3 months.  The end of the year report will show that the Allen campaign raised over $4.5 M in 2011 and will start 2012 with $2,037,405 cash-on-hand.

“Susan and I are greatly appreciative of the encouragement and support we have seen from people in every region of Virginia.  The mission of our campaign is to bring Virginia’s voices and values to the U.S. Senate,” said George Allen.  “The continued generosity of our dedicated grassroots team of supporters has put us in strong standing as we move forward to the November 2012 elections.  I truly believe the 2012 election is our generation’s ‘rendezvous with destiny’ and Virginians are energized and ready to bring change to Washington.  Together, we will continue to fight for the positive, pro-growth solutions that will create jobs, unleash our energy resources, and reinvigorate America’s entrepreneurial spirit.”

www.georgeallen.com

Quinnipiac released a poll that shows George Allen leading Tim Kaine 44% to 42% in Virginia’s US Senate race. Other candidates on either side were not polled, but there was an option for the generic “someone else” that totaled 2%, combining alternate candidates on both sides.

There are some other interesting bits in this poll, but first, a few words on these polls in general.

This Quinnipiac was weighted. As I discussed last week, weighting a poll is a statistical adjustment that into account the makeup of the polling area, in this case the state of Virginia, versus the makeup of the polling sample. In other words, if you call a greater percentage of Republicans than actually exists in the state, then to get an accurate picture, you need to adjust the poll to account for that.

In last week’s poll, Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling outfit sampled more Democrats than Republicans by a good bit. More than the current ratio of Republicans and Democrats in Virginia. My problem with the PPP poll is that they released the raw, unweighted results that showed Tim Kaine with a 5 point lead. So, I weighted the poll, like an honest pollster would do and the result was a 1 point Allen lead.

The Quinnipiac poll properly adjusted the results in their release and it shows, basically, the same thing as the PPP poll when properly weighted. The race is pretty much even, which was the same conclusion I reached in the weighted PPP poll.

One clue that the PPP poll was suspicious was their inclusion of a statement by a “respected” statistical wonk named Nate Silver. If you don’t know the name, then you obviously don’t read far left media outlets like DailyKOS or the New York Times. But the inclusion of such a statement tells me that they know their poll is blatantly partisan. Now I don’t make a claim that the poll itself was flawed. It’s all in the presentation. I believe that PPP was trying to show a post AP debate bounce for Kaine, and it simply is not true. The debate seems to have had no effect at all for Allen or Kaine.

And one trend I have noticed about some of the partisan polls. They tend to publish partisan conclusions are an attempt to sway opinion rather than simply measure public opinion. Most people are aware of the trick questions and how some people use “push polling” to influence the answers. Those tricks are usually easy to spot, so most “respectable” pollsters don’t use them. But the devil is in the interpretation.

And we all know that the saying goes “polls tighten as election day approaches”. And this is absolutely true. Most pollsters want you to think that this is a result of people finally making up their minds. And that is part of it. But mostly, the pollsters understand that when the election is over, they will be judged on the accuracy of their last poll prior to the vote. The closer they are to the actual outcome, the more “accurate” they will be perceived. So the last few days, they all take great pains to carefully weight the results and you will also see that the results usually move from “All adults over 18 – registered or not” to “Registered Voters” and finally to “Likely Voters”. The last category, Likely Voters, is by far the most accurate. But it takes a lot more calls (and money) to weed out the less than likely voters, so they all go for the low hanging fruit until the last few weeks of the campaign.

But there is always some really good information hidden – and ignored – in the answers. And this Quinnipiac poll has a few.

Presidential Questions:

• Newt Gingrich is favored over Romney by Republicans, but loses to Obama.

• Romney leads Obama in a head to head by 2 points.

• Republicans are more enthusiastic about this election than 2008 than Democrats (42% – 29%)

Allen – Kaine Senate Election

• Kaine leads Allen in support from people making less than $30K (47% – 38%) which is closer than most would expect.

• Allen leads Kaine in every other income category ($30K – $50K, $50K – $100K and $100K +) which is significant.

• Allen’s support has remained steady around 44% to 45% for the past 90 days while Kaine has dropped to 42% indicating a slight downward trend for the Democrat.

• The favorable rating of both candidates dropped 4-5 points since October and are about even.

• The unfavorable rating of both candidates improved a couple of points and are still about even.

• The number of people who don’t know enough about either candidate rose several points since October and are about even.

Overall, things have remained pretty even between George Allen and Tim Kaine. There is probably a bit more cheer in the poll for the Allen Camp than the Kaine camp in this news.

What the polls say is that Allen had broad support across all income levels, which is a positive thing. And while most Virginians remember Tim Kaine as the most recent Governor (prior to Bob McDonnell, the current Governor) and his highly visible job as Democratic National Committee Chairman and main Obama cheerleader, George Allen has been out of politics for almost 6 years. To be even with Kaine, who has been on the news and airwaves constantly for those same 6 years, has to give a great deal of encouragement to Allen. Based on exposure the last 6 years alone, Tim Kaine should have an advantage. But that gap has closed.

This poll is also the first taken since the AP debate, and while the movement was a slight shift – within the margin of error – towards Allen, it is accurate to say that debate was more helpful to Allen then to Kaine.

The fact that the number of people who don’t feel they know enough about either candidate has gone up is also important to note. It tells us that people are still forming an opinion and that there is much work to be done by both campaigns to get their message out there.

Tim Kaine has a difficult task ahead trying to convince people that his support of unpopular programs like ObamaCare was the right move, and George Allen needs to establish communications with younger voters (under 35) where Kaine has an advantage. Allen should be pleased that those 35+ give him more favorable ratings than Kaine because those of that age remember Allen as both Governor and Senator and view him more positive than they do Kaine.

While this poll is statistically even, Allen looks to be trending positive and Kaine is steady to losing ground.