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Badly Skewed Economist/YouGov Poll is +11 Democrats and Hillary Only Leads by 2 Points

A brand new Economist/YouGov Poll shows Hillart with a 2 point lead in a 4 way race (with the other 2 parties). Sorry pollsters, this poll is, in my opinion, of little use. You are predicting that the turnout for Hillary will be almost double the turnout for Obama. That is simply not going to happen without massive voter fraud.

The totals reported are unweighted, meaning they did not correct the sample for over polling of Democrats.

And according to the numbers in the polls, they asked 406 Democrats, 364 Independents and only 287 Republicans who they would vote for if the election were held today. Percentages break down to 38% Democrats, 27% Republicans and 34% Independents. Democrats made up 38% of the turnout in 2012 and Republicans 32% – a 6 point spread. Independents were 29%. This poll has 11% more Democrats.

Even in 2008, Obama’s best election he only had a +7% Democrat turnout.

The other polls released today show a +4 Democrat advantage or a just about evenly split divide. Does anyone believe Hillary will see more enthusiasm for her than Obama received in 2008? By 5 or 6 points?

If the turnout is, as most expect, no more than a +4 advantage, this poll should remove 7 points from Hillary and ass them to Trump giving Trump a 49% to 40% lead.

But this poll will help counter the Trump surge in the averages, which is the only reason I can think of for a +11 Democrat poll for Hillary.



About Tom White

Tom is a US Navy Veteran, owns an Insurance Agency and is currently an IT Manager for a Virginia Distributor. He has been published in American Thinker, currently writes for the Richmond Examiner as well as Virginia Right! Blog. Tom lives in Hanover County, Va and is involved in politics at every level and is a Recovering Republican who has finally had enough of the War on Conservatives in progress with the Leadership of the GOP on a National Level.

2 Responses to “Badly Skewed Economist/YouGov Poll is +11 Democrats and Hillary Only Leads by 2 Points”

  1. Bob Shannon

    The point is and has been well recognized that Dem turnout will be suppressed relative to the last 2 cycles.

    African Americans will be off substantially for obvious reasons, the Bernie folks ( how many will stay home–vote Trump or another choice)
    This constant repeating that 67% of Americans think the country is on the wrong track certainly doesn’t bode well for Hillary, throw in that 2/3 of Americans don’t trust her. Shrinking/stagnant incomes, terrorism, bitter hatred for anything ” establishment”, the growing concerns over the lawlessness in an increasing number of American cities…………this is Trumps to lose.

    Trump avoiding the discussion until after the election of entitlement reform was also very smart politically. He denied the Dem’s the opportunity of the ” throw Grandma in the wheelchair off the cliff” Tv ad’s that would have run non stop. The diminished emphasis on the social issues was another wise move. Let the churches and the ministry do the heavy lifting on these issues that only serve to alienate the Independents, a group that yesterday was polling 11 points in Trumps favor, more than enough to offset his deficits among other demographics. Trump, and Trump alone will pull the old Reagan Blue Dog Democrats, the Union workers just as sick of the political class as the rest of us are.
    The debates should be where ( if he stays under control ) he mops the floor with her.
    Bob Shannon

  2. mr green jeans says:



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Tom White Says:

Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

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