Categorized | News, Opinion

Gingrich Leading Obama 45% – 43% in Rasmussen National Poll

As Newt Gingrich rises in the Republican Primary polls in state after state, so too does he rise in national polls.

A new Rasmussen Poll has Gingrich leading Barack Obama 45% – 43%.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Voters finds Gingrich attracting 45% of the vote while President Obama earns support from 43%. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

And the Mitt Romney slide seems to have begun. According to Newsmax:

Newsmax/InsiderAdvantage polls of Iowa and New Hampshire voters conducted Nov. 28 showed Gingrich in the lead in Iowa with 28 percent, followed by Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, at 13 percent and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in third place at 12 percent. In New Hampshire, Romney leads Gingrich 31 to 27 percent.

An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted in South Carolina for the Augusta Chronicle showed Gingrich besting Romney by 23 points, 38 to 15 percent.

“This has gone from being an anyone but Romney race to a Gingrich versus someone race,” InsiderAdvantage head Matt Towery tells Newsmax.

It appears that the Newt has struck a chord with the voters seeking an alternative to Mitt Romney. And some of the polls indicate that support for Romney is softening. While he has remained fairly consistent in the polls as others have risen and fallen, his support appears to be dropping as Gingrich moves to the forefront.

Gallup has a poll that measures what they call voter “Intensity”. This is essentially the same method of computation that Rasmussen uses to calculate the Presidential Approval Index.

What these types of polls actually measure is the difference between those who strongly support, or approve of the individual and those who strongly dislike, or disapprove of the person.

For example, President Obama’s approval rating according to today’s Rasmussen poll is 43% approval and 56% disapproval. But if you look at the percentage of people who strongly approve of Obama’s job (19%) versus those who strongly disapprove (43%), Rasmussen calculates the Approval Index for today as -24 (negative 24). Obama’s highest Approval Index according to Rasmussen was +30%, which is a downward approval swing of 54%. Obama’s first few days saw his “strongly disapprove” numbers down at only 14% and his “strongly approve” numbers in the mid 40’s. That has completely reversed now. The Rasmussen chart for every day since Obama came into office is here. Pretty interesting history.

And the Gallup survey shows Gingrich with a +20 in “Positive Intensity” (with 20% more respondents strongly approving than strongly disapproving).

Romney is down to only a 9% “Positive Intensity” rating, although I am sure Obama would be thrilled with that!

In April of this year, Romney hit his peak “Positive Intensity” rating of 20% and has now dropped to 9%.

Newt started at 19% in April and dropped like a stone down to only 1% positive in August, but has since rocketed to +20.

With less than 5 weeks before the Iowa Primary, it would seem that Gingrich is positioned exactly where he would need to be to win, and Romney is headed in the opposite direction.

A change in the early primary rules this time requires that delegates be apportioned to the winners, so they are not a “winner take all” situation. It will take longer to accumulate a sufficient number of delegates, which will give other states a better chance to be relevant by the time their own primary and caucus  dates roll around.

About Tom White

Tom is a US Navy Veteran, owns an Insurance Agency and is currently an IT Manager for a Virginia Distributor. He has been published in American Thinker, currently writes for the Richmond Examiner as well as Virginia Right! Blog. Tom lives in Hanover County, Va and is involved in politics at every level and is a Recovering Republican who has finally had enough of the War on Conservatives in progress with the Leadership of the GOP on a National Level.

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Tom White Says:

Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

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