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If it’s Thursday, it’s another special election in the United Kingdom.  And this one on November 20 in Rochester and Strood might be a doozy.

The surprising support that defecting MP (from the Tories to UKIP) with the wonderful name of Mark Reckless appears to be holding:

A high-ranking Conservative has admitted that Rochester and Strood will fall to the UK Independence Party this Thursday, and that the Conservative party’s best hopes are now to keep the “defeat to single digits”. Meanwhile, six more Conservatives are rumoured to be considering defection to the insurgent party.

The Conservative Party had something of a standing order of all its MPs:  Five visits to Rochester and Strood to support the Tory hopeful against Reckless.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the set an example, throw the kitchen sink at the voters in Rochester – the UKIP guy has maintained a steady lead:

Asked whether the Conservatives still think they are in with a chance of winning the by-election, a Conservative member of the Cabinet has told the Observer: “We have got no reason to think the published polls are not true. They have shown a 12- or 13-point Ukip lead. If we were able to squeeze it to single digits, then great.”

Making it clear that the Conservatives are relying on Labour doing even worse, thus deflecting any poor press coverage, the source added: “Our vote is holding up OK. We are at 30 percent, maybe even 33 percent. It is not bad. Ukip are in the 40s. But Labour have absolutely capitulated and collapsed in a seat that they held until 2010. There are at least as many questions for Ed Miliband as for us. We are fairly relaxed about the whole thing, as I think it is priced in at this stage.”

There are questions for Labour leader Miliband:  The answer is – the rise of the Farage Labourite.

Here’s an answer that will not help Labour:  Being more Green than the Green Party:

Khan says Labour’s goal is not to run a negative campaign against the Greens, but to persuade them that Miliband has broken the mould of former leaders when it comes to foreign policy, as well as proving his commitment to tackling inequality and climate change.

He can point to the party leader’s record not just on apologising for Iraq, but standing up to the government on military action in Syria and condemnation of Israel’s shelling of schools in Gaza.

“What’s frustrating for me is that people don’t realise how much we’ve changed since the New Labour days,” Khan says. “From the conversations I’ve had with potential Green voters, what’s interesting is that the things that motivate and enthuse them are the same things as us … We’ve got the greenest potential prime minister ever on the cusp of a general election victory and people need to realise that.”

No, Mr. Khan, Labour has not broken the “mould” of former leaders – Labour is still pro-EU and officially anti-referendum.  And condemning Israel is hardly courageous.  The Green Shadow Cabinet (not officially affiliated with the US Green Party but certainly a first cousin of it) called for the end of Israel as a Jewish state.  (Not to mention the nanny state ideas that the Greens [and Labour, and the Tories, too] want to foist on the British people.)

And the Labour Party will be the one to blame (along with the Tories and the LibDems) when the lights go out because of UK climate targets.  That ought to win some Green voters but probably lose even more Farage Labourites.

But this Thursday election could be a tipping point for political realignment:

Mark Reckless’s win could also pave the way for further defections to Ukip in the coming weeks, as sitting Parliamentarians will feel more assured of victory if he can hold his seat. According to the Express, insiders are claiming that John Baron, the Member of Parliament for Basildon and Billericay, may also make the move.


Speaking to the Express last night, Reckless said “if Ukip can win here then Ukip can win across the country.

“I don’t know whether it is an earthquake or a tsunami but we are seeing the potential realignment of our political system and it is conceivable that, as the political system changed in the 1920s with Labour replacing the Liberals, we may see a similar change over the next decade.”

That is amazing.  And UKIPs only (for now) elected MP, Douglas Carswell found some Farage Labourites in Rochester:

His colleague Douglas Carswell, who recently became the first elected Ukip Member of Parliament told the paper that he had recently been canvassing in Rochester, saying: “I was in a traditional Labour ward and what really struck me and was reminiscent of my Clacton experience was that people that I just wouldn’t have even considered worth talking to to try and get them to vote for me are now willing to vote because the old party grounds are so contaminated in the eyes of the voters.

“In that traditional Labour ward there were a huge number of ex-Labour voters, who never in a million years would vote Conservative and who have given up on Labour, will now vote for Ukip.

But the real fear is that the first-past-the-post electoral system that was a firewall against the rise of a party like UKIP appears to be a firewall on fire – or at least smouldering.

“If things go the way I hope they will in Rochester on Thursday, then I think it is further evidence that Ukip are the first party in generations that have sussed out how to unlock the first-past-the-post system. The implications of that are huge.

It’s great to see political realignment.  Of course we must not be complacent.  But this is a once in a lifetime event.  Like the rise of the Republican Party in the late 1850s.  UKIP is fighting your fight.  The fight against globalism and world government and for liberty and sovereignty.

Is it Thursday yet?

About Elwood Sanders

Elwood "Sandy" Sanders is a Hanover attorney who is an Appellate Procedure Consultant for Lantagne Legal Printing and has written ten scholarly legal articles. Sandy was also Virginia's first Appellate Defender and also helped bring curling in VA! (None of these titles imply any endorsement of Sanders’ views)

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Tom White Says:

Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

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