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Live Blog of the Election

Collapse of the Third Parties

I am starting an informal live blog with emphasis on the Third Parties. I already can see that the higher percentage of third parties has collapsed.

Kentucky uses President to determine ballot access and so does Washington State. It is not likely based on the results I see that Jorgensen will get the two percent she needs to keep ballot access. (Gary Johnson got nearly three percent in 2016.)

Let’s turn to Todd Hagopian in Oklahoma (I am aware that Sen. Tom Cotton has been called the winner in Arkansas) and see if he got more than 25% so far. At 830 or so, it is so close: 24.61 percent.

Will be back…

At about 851 PM: With 18 plus percent in Oklahoma in the battle of the Todds, Libertarian Todd Hagopian now has over 28 percent. (This race has no effect on ballot access – it is President or Governor – 2.5%. Jorgensen is at about 1.35%. Possible….)

BTW, the statewide record (according to Wikipedia) is just over 43% in a Montana race (Clerk of the Supreme Court of Montana) and second and third are just at about or slightly over one-third. The US Senate record is in danger perhaps with Joe Miller getting in Alaska with 29.16%. But the Miller is in a three way race. Harrington now at 905pm at 28.6% with 14 percent in.

Now let’s turn to South Dakota and Wyoming:

As of 921 PM no real results in SD and WY. But in Arkansas, with 35% in, Harrington has an amazing 38.3% (168.820!). YAY Ricky Harrington!.

Todd Hagopian is just under 25% with 60 percent and it is iffy at best for ballot access for the LP with a percent and a half.

Be back…

Let’s look at the Indiana Governor’s race – LP candidate Rainwater has just over 12 percent with 61 percent of the total vote. That is impressive – the Hoosier State has had several fine LP candidates. Now this race has no impact on ballot access – it is the Secretary of State’s race that decides it and that race is in 2022. Nearly 230,000 votes right now for the LP candidate for Governor of Indiana.

MSNBC just CALLED BACK their call for Virginia for Biden! FOX did not, however.

Back to the LP stuff: Hagopian is fading away from the 25% point at 23.88 with just under 80 percent. I think I can say with regret that the LP will LOSE ballot access from 2016 based on the Presidential vote. Jorgensen is still mired in about 1.5 percent.

No real change in the Arkansas Senate race. Just over a third of the vote for Ricky Dale Harrington but that is amazing even in a two person race.

Now we turn to South Dakota and Wyoming:

No word on Oakes’ race and no word on Wyoming until 100% of the vote is counted.

With 20% turnout in the SD At large Congressional race, LP Randy “Uriah” Luallin has 17%. Now this race HAS ballot access implications as ANY statewide race – this is a statewide race – and the LP only needs 2.5 percent. That sounds like a really good chance of ballot access as there are about 578,000 votes in SD so the magic number is about 15,000 for ballot access. Luallin has right now 18,386. I am about to project ballot access in SD for the LP.

Be back…

With 8 ot 27 precincts in in District 30, Oakes has a climb to make to be the first LP state senator elected (Laura Ebke was technically nonpartisan but switched to LP during her term) as a Libertarian:

Julie Frye-Mueller 2546 and Oakes has only 1122 votes.

Be back…

I am back – Oakes is down 70 – 30 with 12 precincts in. Not good numbers for winning. That’s too bad.

More news not great for LP – in the Illinois Sixth District US House race, LP Bill Redpath only has 1.6% with 20% of the vote in.

Let’s look at ballot access races. From my blog post of yesterday:

Alaska (US Senate – 3), Colorado (US Senate – 1), Georgia (1), Kansas (1), Michigan (1 percent of the vote in the previous Secretary of State’s race – just under 42,000 votes), Minnesota (5 in either of the last two statewide races), Missouri (Governor – 2 in last two elections), New Hampshire (Governor – 4), North Carolina (2 but see above), North Dakota (Governor only 5), Oregon (US Senate – 1 percent of the total vote for all the US House races), South Dakota (At large US House – 2.5 in last two elections), Texas (US Senate, Railroad Commissioner and several judgeships, including Chief Justice of the Texas Supreme Court where Mark Ash is the LP nominee against a D and a R. Ash earned over 1.6 million votes – that might be a record – in 2018 (1,614,119) and the perhaps coveted Sanders endorsement. Texas, however, UNLIKE VIRGINIA, liberalized their ballot access laws by making it TWO percent in the last five elections and Ash got just over 25% in 2018 so ballot access is assured for at least next three statewide elections no matter what happens Tuesday.), Utah (Governor and several other statewide races 2 in either of the last two elections), West Virginia (Governor – 1), and Wyoming (US House 2).

Colorado – The LP US Senate candidate Raymon Doyle has 41, 932 votes (1.5%) with 80 percent of the vote so that looks pretty good for continued ballot access.

Georgia has TWO statewide elections. In one of them (the Perdue seat) the Libertarian Shane Hazel has 2.3 percent with 76% of the total vote which is about 3.8 million votes and if we add 25% to the 3.8 million we get just over 5 million votes. Hazel only needs lets say 52,000 (1%) and she has just over 90,000 votes so I can say – YES – LP keeps BA in Georgia

Kansas US Senate – clear ballot access keep for the LP with Jason Buckley with an impressive just under 5 percent in a three way race with 85% of the vote. Only 1 percent is needed.

Michigan – 1 percent in a statewide race – if President is a statewide race – Jorgensen has 1.2 percent. There may be other races and Michigan is hard to call for BA.

With 17 precincts in for District 30 in SD – Oakes is still way behind – very doubtful he will win.

Back to ballot access: In Missouri, with 90 percent in, Jorgensen has 1.4 percent and the Governor candidate has 1.6 percent and the party only needs one percent. Sounds good in the Show Me State.

Minnesota is hopeless for keeping ballot access in this cycle – as it is 5% and there is no LP candidate for US Senate and Jorgensen has just over one percent.

New Hampshire – the LP very likely did not keep ballot access with only 1.4 percent for Darryl Perry with 70% in

Texas – The Railroad Commissioner and the Chief Justice races look fairly good for ballot access – the party needs two percent – and Matt Sterett has 2.2 percent and Mark Ash has 2.78 percent – with about 58% of the precincts in.

Ricky Harrington is now at 33.3% with 90 percent in and a total vote of 382,781 so far.

Nicholas Sarwark in his race for Hillsborough County Attorney is way behind with 5 percent.

Now Wyoming: at 1255am no results.

I think I am calling it a night. I am sorry for all the candidates I left out as every one fought hard, against tough odds for a third party candidacy. there is a romance in politics but wining is tough. I respect and admire each one of you. Good night.

About Elwood Sanders

Elwood "Sandy" Sanders is a Hanover attorney who is an Appellate Procedure Consultant for Lantagne Legal Printing and has written ten scholarly legal articles. Sandy was also Virginia's first Appellate Defender and also helped bring curling in VA! (None of these titles imply any endorsement of Sanders’ views)

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Tom White Says:

Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

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