Cong. Ron Paul has surged in the two latest polls: A close second in Iowa (to Cain by one point) and a distant second in NH (to Romney):
The Bloomberg poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers was taken Nov. 10-13, and it puts the Lake Jackson Republican one percentage point behind leader Herman Cain, with 19 percent of the vote to Cain’s 20 percent. The top four candidates in Iowa actually find themselves in a statistical dead heat, all falling within the four-point margin of error. After Cain and Paul come Mitt Romney (18 percent support) and Newt Gingrich (17 percent).
Paul’s support is solid, reports Virginia’s very own national political pundit, Larry Sabato:
“A caucus state like Iowa is tailor-made to maximize the vote for [a] candidate like Ron Paul,” Sabato said. ”He has a dedicated band of supporters who will show up to vote in three feet of snow.”
Zogby wrote that an October poll, conducted before the Cain allegations surfaced, “found Paul the expected leader among libertarians, but with Cain not far behind,” indicating a bloc that could collectively buoy Paul’s numbers in the event of a Cain collapse.
“He can win in Iowa and will probably stay in the race all the way,” Zogby told TheDC. “But it will be difficult for him to win the nomination because his several of his ideas are just too out of the mainstream of the Republican Party.”
Turning to local news, I’d like to ask if property owners in Hanover are ready for RON PAUL signs! Let me know by commenting on this blog and I’ll get the info to the proper parties. The VA primary is Feb 28.
UPDATE: A SECOND Iowa poll shows Paul in second:
Cain 24.5%
Paul 20.4%
Romney 16.3%
About Elwood Sanders
Elwood "Sandy" Sanders is a Hanover attorney who is an Appellate Procedure Consultant for Lantagne Legal Printing and has written ten scholarly legal articles. Sandy was also Virginia's first Appellate Defender and also helped bring curling in VA! (None of these titles imply any endorsement of Sanders’ views)
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I think Paul, Huntsman and Romney are running a sub-primary of their own for Moderates, Libertarians, non-Evangelicals, and Fiscal Conservatives. Perry, Cain, Bachmann, Santorum and Gingrich are running a sub-primary of their own for Social Conservatives, neo-Conservatives and Evangelicals. Time will tell who will rise from each of the packs.
I think there is truth in this: It is a bit like the NCAA BB Tourney. Let's hope Paul is a finalist and does better than Butler did!