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Predictions and Thoughts on Today’s Election!

No Matter What: God’s In Charge!

I think the GOP (in spite of its many errors and mistakes in this election – which are enough to make a Nazarene swear!) might be encouraged by this early voting turnout report in Blue Virginia:

As of Saturday’s data update, there had been 133,921 absentee ballots returned, more than double the 62,467 absentee ballots returned at the same point in 2015, about 25% below the 179,958 absentees returned at the same point in 2017. [NOTE: according to the State Board of Elections website’s update this morning, there had been 135,794 absentee ballots returned, with 175,560 absentee ballot applications.] Based on TargetSmart’s partisanship model, they *estimate* that these absentee ballots break down as 59,902 Democratic – 59,156 Republican – 14,863 “Other.”

Now I have no idea what data and analysis they use BUT if the early voting should as in most states favors Democrats, that might be an onimous sign that this election will be close. Get out and vote, especially if you voted Trump and are happy with that vote!

I think the election will be close but I’ll go with: Deplorables come out in huge numbers and save the House. Probably not enough to save the Senate.

If you scratched me I’d say:

  • Sturtevant loses (unless he can keep it close and he is saved by another big Sheriff’s race in Powhatan).
  • Dunnavant wins narrowly. Hanover “delivers” for the senator.
  • We lose the 13th Senate race in NOVA.
  • Hugo race might go to recount.
  • Two or three GOP pick ups in Prince William – Anderson, Lovejoy and maybe DJ.
  • I do not have a good feel for Henrico. Really. I hope Keith Hicks wins for School Board. GayDonna Vandergriff ought to win and I’ll say she is more likely to win than Mary Margaret Kastelberg.
  • I think the combination of the third time – let’s try the other one and a smart, serious Libertarian (I did not encourage that run!) will sink Del. Yancey.
  • Glenn Davis wins narrowly. Not sure about the senate races in Hampton roads. I do think there will be a pick up in that area for the GOP.
  • Stan Scott puts a huge scare into Senator McDougle – 54-46.
  • Speaking of Scott – T. Scott Renick and Scott Miles win in New Kent and Chesterfield and people start talking Miles for higher office. Maybe AG?
  • Wyatt wins but there is a huge write in (let’s say 20%) for Peace.
  • Libertarians win two firsts: Charlie Millner for BOCS in Campbell County and Vicky Rose first elected to a state legislature (Dist 37 is Mississippi).
  • Rachel Mace breaks the record for best turnout for a LPer with 33% turnout (and it could be more) against Del. Filler-Corn.
  • After the election, there will be a HUGE soul-searching among the leaders of the GOP.

More perhaps when I see some turnout. Remember: Deplorables got to vote!

About Elwood Sanders

Elwood "Sandy" Sanders is a Hanover attorney who is an Appellate Procedure Consultant for Lantagne Legal Printing and has written ten scholarly legal articles. Sandy was also Virginia's first Appellate Defender and also helped bring curling in VA! (None of these titles imply any endorsement of Sanders’ views)

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Tom White Says:

Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

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