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Here’s another report about the possibility of a write-in campaign for Rep. Mike Castle.  The Examiner writer, Cullen Linebarger, cites a very preliminary poll:

One of the nation’s top election prognosticators, Nate Silver, tried to model a possible three-way race between Coons, O’Donnell, and Castle. He came up with the following: Coons with 37 percent of the vote, Castle with 34 percent, and O’Donnell with 29 percent. It is important to note that it is extremely difficult to poll races with a write-in candidate so these numbers must be taken with a grain of salt.

jeremyz at Redstate has a thorough analysis of the Delaware race.  His thesis is that the only way O’Donnell can win is a three way race.  She has been sound-bited (a semi-regular on Bill Maher?) and satirized to the point where O’Donnell cannot be taken seriously.  However, Coons is an “inexperienced and flawed candidate” who is now the front-runner based solely because O’Donnell is the only opponent.  There is a huge space for a third party candidiate:

There is a very soft middle in Delaware as seen in the drastic difference in polling between Castle & Coons (Castle by 15 points) and Coons & O’Donnell (Coons by 15 points).  That is a swing of 30 points and 30 points is a great base from which to start for a 3rd party candidacy.

But if Castle runs as a write-in, he can win – or he can help her win instead:

If Christine O’Donnell is a good candidate and can turn things around, she will only need 35-37% of the vote to win.  If O’Donnell continues to drag and holds 30% support, Castle only needs to get 35-37% of the vote in order for him to win the seat.  What this does is increase the less than 15% odds of winning the seat in the current political landscape and increases the odds both for O’Donnell and for himself should he enter.  Either way, it appears Castle helps the Republicans win this seat.

Sandy, are there other reasons to like Rep. Castle?  Other than numismatics?  Well, there is (all from his congressional website) although I admit several of his positions need work!

  • Castle teamed up with Senator McCain to stop torture and illegal interrogation methods that violate international law.
  • Castle is a co-sponsor of the repeal of Obamacare (see this source for this) and voted against it.
  • Castle supports a balanced budget amendment and is a member of its caucus in the House.
  • Castle was the subject of a analysis by the Weekly Standard and he came up as more conservative than almost every Democrat (o.202 where ten is pure conservative and minus 10 is liberal)
  • Castle voted to impeach President Clinton on one of the counts.

Politics tends to follow the natural law of every action has an equal and opposite reaction; I think if Rep. Castle runs as a write in and wins, he’ll be more conservative this time.  Rep. Castle has a distinguished record free from scandal from his first election as state representative in 1966 through a term as Lieutenant Governor, two terms as governor and nine terms in Congress.  Let’s encourage him to run and win!  Remember the quarters!

About Elwood Sanders

Elwood "Sandy" Sanders is a Hanover attorney who is an Appellate Procedure Consultant for Lantagne Legal Printing and has written ten scholarly legal articles. Sandy was also Virginia's first Appellate Defender and also helped bring curling in VA! (None of these titles imply any endorsement of Sanders’ views)


  1. Tom White says:

    Teaming up with McCain, Castle made military intelligence gathering much harder, and they used the press to demonize water-boarding, among other methods. If it will save American lives, I believe water-boarding is an effective tool that should be used in wars against non-governmental entities without hesitation. These groups use far worse methods against Americans. Rules of War are only applicable if both sides adhere to them. It is lunacy to fight an enemy using only “fair” practices while they employ any means necessary to win. The only reason we have any rules at all is so our captives will not face torture. Both sides play by the same rules, or the rules are tossed aside. Fair is fair. Castle and McCain harmed America with this. The very idea that rules should apply to America and the other side does what they want is as liberal as it gets.

    On Health Care repeal, Castle signed on as a co-sponsor on July 30, 2010 after O’Donnell started closing in on him in the polls with her message of repeal. He did not sign on two months earlier when the bill was introduced. Political gain was his only reason.

    Castle is “more conservative than almost every Democrat” still says he is a Liberal Republican in the mold of Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins. A very unreliable vote on Conservative issues. O’Donnell will be one of the most Conservative members when you look at her voting record.

    And as to impeachment, we had a president that abused his office, lied and was caught. There was nothing ambiguous about the “I did not have sexual relations with that woman”. Anyone who believed Clinton after the blue dress surfaced is a liar. Castle tried to weasel out of removing Clinton, prefering to find a way to sweep this under the rug and avoid impeachment. Castle’s quote says as much:

    “This is all so overwhelming,” said Rep. Michael N. Castle (R-Del.), one of the moderates who tried unsuccessfully to find a bipartisan compromise to impeachment but ultimately supported one of the articles calling for Clinton’s removal. “There have been so many bombshells you can barely turn your back.”

    If the case was so overwhelming, why did he try to find a compromise?

    Because he is not a Conservative and does not represent Conservative values.

    While he receives a 30% NARAL rating, he is actually pro-choice. He favors Fetal Stem Cell research with your tax dollars, and wants to expand the practice. He voted yes on tax dollars paying for abortions overseas, and voted to repeal the Bush abortion ban overseas.He voted No on a bill to ban Human Cloning. He also voted to allow people to take minors across state lines to obtain abortions. Now, he did oppose partial birth abortions, which is the only thing that stands in his way as far as pro-choice goes.

    O’Donnell will be a reliable vote on ALL of the issues I care about. I will support a Tea Party backed Republican against Snowe or Collins when their time comes. In my opinion, even if a Democrat wins, the Conservative movement is not harmed. And at least the country will be able to blame the appropriate people – the Liberals.

    If the best Republicans can do is candidates like Castle, Snowe and Collins, they do not deserve control of the Senate. Toss in McCain when he gets out of his Conservative mode and settles in for his last 6 years as a RINO.

    If we could have replaced these three liberal senators when the Republicans had a majority with three Conservatives like O’Donnell, the Republicans would still be in power.


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Tom White Says:

Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

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