This election could easily turn into Minnesota 1998 with just a few breaks. Several polls show that the Sarvis support is not an anomaly but seems to be between 8 and 11 percent. This is amazing considering that the Old Dominion is averse to third parties.
In the Bearing Drift poll – Sarvis is at an amazing 10.8 percent. Here’s some highlights:
And then there’s the Libertarian candidate, Robert Sarvis. His nearly 11 percent showing is impressive, and he draws his support largely from independents (44 percent of his total).
I agree. This is impressive. Now as you know I am close to the Sarvis campaign. It is exciting. I’ve never seen anything like it in Virginia since ironically then State Senator Cuccinelli won the 2009 convention on the first ballot. Millions have been spent and nobody seems to like the major party candidates. Can you say Governor Skip Humphrey? Nope – Reform candidate Jesse Ventura won with nearly 37% percent. Try this:
The candidates are tied 29-29 in the 5th congressional district. Sarvis runs strong here, with 21 percent. But his greatest strength is in the 4th CD, where he ties Terry McAuliffe at 24 percent and is just three points back of Ken Cuccinelli.
The bottom line? This race is wide open. We’ve seen this trend building over the last few weeks across all polls and ours confirms the tightening.
The truth is: Sarvis with enough resources CAN win. He is not just a spoiler.
In case you do not like that poll – try this Washington Post poll at Blue Virginia (I cite the poll itself here):
In the largely rural region that includes the Shenandoah Valley, Southwest and part of Southside Virginia, Sarvis is getting 19 percent of likely voters — clearly hurting Cuccinelli where the Republican should be performing strongest. Sarvis also does well among younger voters, taking 15 percent of those between 18 and 49.
That appears to track the Bearing Drift poll. And people really want to vote for someone else:
“I really disagree with Cuccinelli’s politics, especially his anti-abortion stance,” said Gina Gabelia, 32, who lives in Ashburn and works at a nonprofit group.
As for McAuliffe, Gabelia said: “His advertisements make him sound like a stand-up guy, but who knows? . . . He has a good campaign manager.”
This is amazing. No one hardly knows the Libertarian but he is showing strength late into September. I do not know why the Libertarian Party, prominent Libertarians or Gary Johnson do not pour money into this race. There could be a historic night November 5. If Robert Sarvis has a chance in the polls to win and if he has his victory party here in the River City (and if I can get away), I’ll live blog from Sarvis HQ.
About Elwood Sanders
Elwood "Sandy" Sanders is a Hanover attorney who is an Appellate Procedure Consultant for Lantagne Legal Printing and has written ten scholarly legal articles. Sandy was also Virginia's first Appellate Defender and also helped bring curling in VA! (None of these titles imply any endorsement of Sanders’ views)
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Sandy, I appreciate your optimism but isn’t comparing this race to Ventura in ’98 pushing it just a bit? Please help me fill in the dots here..
Twitter: https://twitter.com/SandySanders2
says:
I think there was only one poll in 1998 that showed Ventura with a chance to win and that was all it took to win (along with some ad buys of about $300k)
See my previous blog entry on this at: http://www.varight.com/news/what-does-robert-sarvis-need-to-win-the-election-some-help-and-a-fair-amount-of-cash-perhaps-a-sarvis-money-bomb/
Thanks Jeff for coming by!
Sandy
Although I agree that there are many who are not head over heels for any of the major party candidates, your optimism is a pipe dream. Sarvis most absolutely IS a spoiler in this race.
Are you really that worried that Sarvis is going to “spoil” the race for KC? I thought Ken kicked some major patooty in last night’s debate, maybe enough to overtake McAuliffe?
I concur that Cuccinelli gave a strong showing last night and his numbers have markedly improved over the last week or two; however, with a race this close, it goes without saying that a third party candidate could cause an upset one way or the other.
do you think Sarvis can break 5 percent or higher on Election Day, or is this all a fluke?
Twitter: https://twitter.com/SandySanders2
says:
No it is not a fluke in that there is tremendous angst about both other candidates and Sarvis is a legitimate candidate who could and would make a capable governor. I think Sarvis can win (it is admittedly a long shot but less of one than it was when I first started writing about him) and Sarvis has a better chance of getting that 10% needed to make the LP a recognized political party in VA.
Thanks for comign by. S
Elwood “Sandy” Sanders recently posted…BRILLIANT MOVE by ROBERT SARVIS: RUN YOUR AD DURING the DEBATE he was NOT INVITED TO!
Twitter: https://twitter.com/SandySanders2
says:
I agree. Thanks for comign by. S
Elwood “Sandy” Sanders recently posted…BRILLIANT MOVE by ROBERT SARVIS: RUN YOUR AD DURING the DEBATE he was NOT INVITED TO!
Twitter: https://twitter.com/SandySanders2
says:
Jeff, Cuccinelli did appear to do well (I did not watch the debate deliberately to protest Sarvis’ exclusion) and I thought his line about how the state motto would have to change if McAuliffe wins from sic semper tyrannis to quid pro quo was classic! I think Dems ought to ponder their candidate – he may well embarrass the state just as the present governor has. With what result? It will hurt their changes in the future. Sarvis is not a “spoiler”, he is in it to win albeit it is hard to win as a third party.
Sandy
Elwood “Sandy” Sanders recently posted…BRILLIANT MOVE by ROBERT SARVIS: RUN YOUR AD DURING the DEBATE he was NOT INVITED TO!
Twitter: https://twitter.com/SandySanders2
says:
No Sarvis is not a spoiler but he is in it to win (albeit not likely to happen) and I think with some “lucky breaks” which also can be the Lord’s blessing Sarvis can win. it is a long hsot but not impossible.
Sarvis has two problems: One, people do not want to “waste their vote” on one not going to win and it is difficult to hear about a third party candidate due to lack of funds to buy gobs of ads. So the third party candidate can’t win because he/she is perceived to not to be able to win, etc. Ventura broke through that by having some ad money, his opponents attached each other and ignored Ventura, he was in several debates and he got a poll that said he had 25% late in the campaign. sarvis has potential to get the 25% poll number and his opponents are viciously attaching each other. He does not have enough money and needs to get into a debate or two.
Sandy
Elwood “Sandy” Sanders recently posted…BRILLIANT MOVE by ROBERT SARVIS: RUN YOUR AD DURING the DEBATE he was NOT INVITED TO!
Good evening Sandy. Now if Sarvis should falter down the stretch, Sandy who would be your second choice? Thank you!
Twitter: https://twitter.com/SandySanders2
says:
I plan at this moment to vote for Sarvis and I do not expect that to change but my second choice is of course Ken Cuccinelli. I would like to see Sarvis win or in the alternative get 10% so the Libertarian Party is a recognized political party in VA.
Sandy
Elwood “Sandy” Sanders recently posted…BRILLIANT MOVE by ROBERT SARVIS: RUN YOUR AD DURING the DEBATE he was NOT INVITED TO!
If the Republican Presidential primary were held tomorrow, would you want Christie, Cruz, Bush, or Paul to win?
Sandy, when one has a child, should its parents reward a poor report card? Isn’t rewarding poor behavior the reason we may be at the crossroads now in this state? Well, we were at least until the Republicans raised taxes.
The Republicans have control of all three branches of government, why not take one away for certain?
When they lose the governors seat, they are going to blame it on giftgate and Tea Party McDonnell. You know, I wish giftgate would not have happened. Why? Because everytime a Republican looses, the Right says it was because the candidate was not far enough to the right. I maintain Cuccinelli and Jackson will both lose, simply because the majority will not vote that far right. Jackson is toast, should have just stood there and kept his mouth shut. People are not going to vote way left either.
You want proof? In spite of name recognition, Corporate money, NRA support, the Right Wing support, George Allen was sent packing last year. If that is not proof, I do not know what is. What excuse for that?
If the election were tomorrow, McAuliffe would win big. The polls are being played just like last November. Keep the race close for the higher ratings, ratings equal profit. “Virginia is for Democrats” these days. Just like last November. Remember how you were “played” by the press last year? President Obama had a lead, then as we got closer to the election the polls got closer? On election nite they handed us a nail biter! That is what ” they” are doing now. Don’t give hate radio and TV the key to your soul! It is all about the cabbage.
Most people want big spenders. They want government to run just like their personal life and finances are run. They spend all their own money, then go looking for more of everyone else’s money by way of government. The evidence points to the Republicans. But, they try to blame the Dems.
One thing. The Republicans de- regulated Wall St., ruined our economy, exported our jobs, put people out of work. Oilman Bush gave us and big oil $4.00 gasoline. He gave the weapons manufactures two wars, he gave the drug companies Medicare part D. And you think PAC money is not grease money? Then what do they do? Raise cain because the people they put out of work, cannot afford to live, eat, or go to the doctor. That is the Republicans!
My Delegate told me after the last Budget session. The Dems wanted to raise taxes, but we (Republicans) were able to stop them. The kicker? Just look at what they did past January, largest tax increase in Virginia history. Whatever a Republican says, the truth is quite the opposite. Believe it!
I will never forget one nite at a Tea Party meeting, I suggested to Bob that we needed to look at all the candidates credit reports, and income to debt ratio. The look on Bob’s face is etched in my mind. Deer in the headlights. I knew right then, these people are not on the same page as I am. I asked, “if a person cannot manage their own money, how can they manage the taxpayers money or that of someone else”? No answer. Right then I knew the game was on! Another Republican Con Job, reverse Robin Hood!
Why is it that to get a class A contractors license, one has to show income to debt ratio, and a certain net worth? However, one can run for office, get elected, and make that law, and show nothing?
I would just love to look at all the candidates credit reports in this election, and income to debt ratio.
Also, I do not intend to help elect the next Republican governor by voting for Obenshain. Nope. Not going to happen.
It is high time to clean up the AG position. Nothing but a political springboard to the Governors office. AG generally resigns half term if they can afford to, so as to campaign for governor.
I told the Republicans what I was going to do years ago if they kept it up, they did not listen. Isn’t there a famous song that said ” they did not listen then, they will not listen now”? Was it Don McClean? Vincent? I didn’t know it at the time, 70’s, but gee, wasn’t he talking about the Republicans?
If legal, I also plan to take a picture of my ballot after I fill in the boxes. I will deliver a copy of it to each of my Republican reps.
Vote Democracy! Vote Freedom! Vote Democrat!