Categorized | Opinion, President 2012

Additional Thoughts on the Virginia US Senate Race and George Allen

Yesterday, I posted my thoughts on the Virginia US Senate race in light of the Press Release from George Allen announcing endorsements from members of various TEA Party and Patriot groups.

Some of the comments, emails and even phone calls have been both interesting and curious. And there has been a lot of talk around the Virginia online community on both my post and the Press Release in general.

I feel like I pointed out that the emperor was wearing non clothes. In essence, I was simply stating a fact.

From the beginning, the race to the Republican nomination to replace the retiring Senator Jim Webb (D-Va) was George Allen’s to lose. Or win as the case may be.

There was one single path to the nomination for any and all potential challengers. And it was a simple equation. In order to overcome the formidable support that the former Virginia Governor and US Senator already had in hand, it would take a united and coordinated coalition of grassroots activists behind one single candidate to even stand a remote chance to win a primary over George Allen. And even that may not be enough.

But if the stars aligned just right, it was within the realm of possibility.

The odds of beating George Allen dip to zero if there are more than one challenger in the Primary. Such a challenger will need each and every vote that is not cast for Allen to win. Splitting the vote spells doom for any challenger.

A three way or more race spells victory for Allen.

So far, it is too early to tell if there will be more than one left standing come primary time. That much is still up in the air.

But the other half of the equation that is necessary for a single candidate muster enough votes to take the nomination from Allen is full and complete support from Conservative grassroots activists.

The only path to the nomination for a challenger to George Allen is for both of those things to happen. Absent one element or the other, there is simply no mathematical way for anyone else to win.

Yesterday, the possibility of a full and unanimous Conservative grassroots effort to align behind a single candidate evaporated. And with it, any possibility of victory for anyone but Allen.

Many of the names on the list of Allen supporters released yesterday are friends of mine. Others I would tag as acquaintances. All of them are Conservative TEA Party activists. And leaders. And all Patriots.

Now one thing that seems to be floating around the internet (and elsewhere) is that these folks are not really TEA Party leaders as Sara for America pointed out.

And I agree with Sara that “others” are trying to paint the runaways as not actual leaders, and hardly patriots. (Although I think Sara’s use of a Gone With the Wind motif seems disrespectfully over the top.)

But her point was well taken.

And her reference was to a quote on Bearing Drift from Mark Lloyd:

“The Allen campaign has listed one-hundred folks from across Virginia that claim to be Tea Party activists. Some are members of the VTPP groups. But the VTPP has approximately fifty Tea Party and Patriot groups across the Commonwealth, representing an estimated 45,000 Tea Party activists,” said Lloyd via email. “[The Allen campaign has] only come up with one-hundred to support their campaign, and a large number are from the Richmond Patriots – a group chaired by Laura Alcorn who is a big Allen supporter. There are several others listed that are long-time Allen supporters, so it’s no surprise to see their names.”

“The bottom-line is it’s not a really impressive number,” he said. “One-hundred out of 45,000 doesn’t show much.”

First and foremost, anyone involved in the TEA Party movement is free to support any candidate they wish. The Virginia Republican Party considers supporting a non-Republican as an automatic resignation from the RPV. This is not the case with the TEA Party.

And the names on the list Lloyd is talking about are not simply minor members. Many of these have organized and trained others and with that single name comes a number of folks that are like-minded. So, the number of 100 is actuallt representative of a lot more that will support Allen.

And among the 45,000 Lloyd mentioned, a good number of these are Republicans who are also TEA Party members and who already support Allen.

It is absolutely incorrect to give the impression that there are 45,000 TEA Party members who are not Allen supporters. Truth is, nobody has a clue how many of them support Allen, but that number is, in all probability, quite large.

How many TEA Party members also identify themselves as Republicans?

Now for those who have commented that this race is not over, I never said it was. As an Indianapolis Colts fan, I have become quite familiar with this scenario. Often, the game is not really over at the half, but the winner is not in doubt. (And it ain’t my Colts!)

Jamie Radtke is an amazing woman. She is a brilliant organizer and leader, and would make a great politician. She is smart and has a drive that is both formidable and impressive. She is Conservative to the core and I respect her a great deal. We have talked many times over the last few years and I consider her a friend.

Tim Donner is equally Conservative, insightful and very intelligent. He is a successful businessman and has a talent for speaking in public. He is probably the most experienced of the contenders to Allen and would also make a great politician. Tim and I have spoken a number of times and I have done several podcasts and at least one video with him.

I have reached out to David McCormick and Bishop Jackson but have not, as yet, had the opportunity to interview them. I have, however, heard Jackson speak on several occasions and he is a powerful speaker with a great message.

I have also spent time one on one with George Allen.

I really have a great deal of respect for all 5 of these people who have offered their time and treasure in the effort to make Virginia and America a better place. All of them are qualified for the job and all are infinitely preferable to Tim Kaine.

So my observation that the TEA Party has failed to unite behind a single candidate, and indeed, a significant number have decided to support George Allen.

When you do the analysis, the outcome is as obvious.

That does not mean that everyone should drop out by any means. I am looking forward to the RPV debates and hope there will still be challengers in the race then, and I see no reason they should not be there. We need to discuss the issues. We need to challenge all of the candidates, including Allen.

But in the end, the outcome has already been revealed. This is not a reflection on the challengers, it is just reality.

And at this point, if you still believe there is a path to victory for a Republican in the primary to defeat George Allen without the full and undivided support of the TEA Party grassroots “machine” please let me know your thoughts on exactly how this will happen.

I’m not seeing it.

About Tom White

Tom is a US Navy Veteran, owns an Insurance Agency and is currently an IT Manager for a Virginia Distributor. He has been published in American Thinker, currently writes for the Richmond Examiner as well as Virginia Right! Blog. Tom lives in Hanover County, Va and is involved in politics at every level and is a Recovering Republican who has finally had enough of the War on Conservatives in progress with the Leadership of the GOP on a National Level.

3 Responses to “Additional Thoughts on the Virginia US Senate Race and George Allen”

  1. Guest says:

    I am wondering if this list was even checked. I have read a post from one person on the list who said he did not support it…nor did he give permission for his name to be used. He demanded an apology. The person listed from The Roanoke Tea Party is not a member of that group. I have noted before that this site does not seem to check any facts before "reporting the news" but simply publishes anything that is heard. Because of this, this site, to me, has lost all credibility. Check your sources. Check your facts before you publish anything as true. This should be a common practice, but obviously is not with this site.

    • Tom White says:

      Seriously? You expect me to call all 100+ names on a press release from a political candidate and verify that every name on the list actually endorsed a candidate? Sorry, that is not what constitutes publishing facts. I published the press release unedited and I stand by the fact that the press release I published is exactly as it was released by the candidates. Any errors or omissions or inaccurate facts are up to the campaign to correct if necessary.

      My responsibility with any press release is simply to be sure that it came from the source it claims to be from and that it is not a “spoof”. The content of such is not up to me. This was emailed to me from a contact with the Allen campaign and it is an email well known to me.

      If there are inaccuracies and the campaign advises me of such, I will issue corrections.

      Seriously, you can’t blame the messenger for the accuracy of such a message. But as far as I have been made aware, the names on the list published are accurate. If some changed their minds or were reported in error, I am not aware of this.

  2. Guest says:

    This was posted in today
    “My name was used without my consent. I have not given George Allen’s campaign my endorsement in any way shape or form. while I am the leader of the Alexandria Tea Party, and am not associated with the NOVA TEA group, my tea party does not endorse candidates, we are an education focused group. If there is another Kerry Scott who is a tea party leader I have not heard of him/her in the two plus years I have been involved with the tea party movement. I have called Allen’s campaign office and demanded a retraction. I am requesting that you make your readers aware that Allen did not seek nor obtain my permission. I am a private citizen and am very unhappy with this situation.”


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Tom White Says:

Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

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