Categorized | Opinion, Tea Party

Debunking Conspiracy Theory Driving Droves of Conservatives to Trump

In my pursuit of understanding the inexplicable, I finally stumbled across a conspiracy theory posted at The Last Refuge detailing the RNC’s plan to nominate Jeb Bush. Before I begin quoting this theory for you, please understand that I am in no way endorsing this theory, nor am I even remotely bothered by its assertions. My hope is that you too will read this, understand what it is being used for, and then have a cup of herbal tea. Fearmongering gives the theorist power over your decision making abilities and robs you of your rational thought. It’s why conspiracy theories are so popular and effective and almost never true. I’ll explain the theory and quickly debunk it.

The theory begins….

In a very general sense the broad construct begins around a very specific premise: The GOPe knew they would need to devise a strategy to elect Jeb Bush with around 15 – 25% of the primary vote, depending on the state – through the first nine calendar primary races.  [Dixie states at the low end, and New England states at higher thresholds.]

The idea here is to ensure that in more liberal states, the winner of the primary gets 100% of the delegates and in conservative states, the delegates are split.

Each voting sub-set or ideology within the Republican base, within a specific state, would need multiple options in order for the ‘Not-Jeb’ vote to be kept in check below the “risk margin” allowing Jeb’s small vote count to be victorious.  We called this “fracturing the block“.

If a single part of Not-Jeb (remember he/she’s a group) began polling higher than Jeb, then add another similar candidate and split Not-Jeb again.  Scott Walker, Ted Cruz, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio and Rand Paul seemed to be the biggest risk to Jeb.

[Example: Tea Party conservative type voters would need multiple candidate options to fracture their voting block: (Walker, Cruz, Jindal, Rubio etc.)]

Obviously with 17 candidates, it goes without saying the key and essential tripwire was easily triggered.  However, if it had not been – we would have stopped tracking.

This part of the theory details how the RNC would choose multiple candidates to split various subsets of the Republican Party. Obviously, this prediction has already faulted with Rick Perry dropping out of the race, leaving Ted Cruz a wider opening in Texas. If someone really is pulling the strings at the RNC, they forgot to fund the Perry campaign. Oopsy Daisy.

Again, the goal is to keep Jeb afloat by introducing a candidate into the larger “Not-Jeb” group who can remove support from any other larger growing bit of the “non-Jeb” candidate.   Hence, South Carolina (Graham), Ohio (Kasich), Texas (Perry), and Florida (Rubio) – with further insurance policies in Virginia (Gilmore) and New York (Pataki).

Sticking with their theory that this is all about math and not ideology (because, of course, the voters are really machines programed and predictable?) it is obvious that the RNC is pushing candidates in important states to steal votes away from Conservatives. Except that Pataki in New York isn’t a conservative and is more likely to draw votes away from Bush and not away from the grassroots. Lyndsey Graham in South Carolina is a hardliner for the GOP Establishment. Again, not that anyone in SC will vote for him, he’d draw votes away from Bush, not Cruz or Paul. Kasich in Ohio is running as the fair left compassionate conservative and the only people that like him are also Bush supporters. No one is supporting Kasich instead of Cruz or Paul in Ohio. Perry likely would have split votes with Cruz and Paul in Texas, but the masterminds at the RNC forgot to fund his campaign and Perry is out. So, oops. Rubio in Florida could still be a problem for Cruz and Paul, however, it is important to remember that all three have been considered TEA Party candidates. Also, unless Rubio really does get his fundraising together, he might not be in the race come the Florida Primary.

If this is the establishment’s strategy to defeat conservatives, its horribly conceived and poorly executed.

This GOPe Jeb Bush roadmap also explains the timing of Kasich (Ohio), Pataki (New York) and Gilmore (Virginia) – although Fiorina is also registered homestead in VA.

These candidates are like Pac-Man gobbling up delegate votes from more conservative candidates, and planning to drop them back off in the bucket of Jeb Bush after endorsement at specific dates.

Gilmore? Really? If the RNC is so smart, why are they choosing fake candidates to derail conservative candidates who can’t poll double digits in their own States? And why isn’t the RNC choosing conservative candidates in Virginia, South Carolina, New York, and Ohio?

All you really need to know is how this conspiracy theory ends.

trump-cant-be-boughtSo worried about the success of conservative candidates like Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Rand Paul are these theorists, that they conclude with a picture showing Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Rand Paul as FOR SALE.

Only Trump isn’t for sale?

The message is clear, only Donald Trump can defeat the evil RNC plot to anoint another Bush.

If this really was what the RNC was looking for, then they are much less intelligent than I give them credit for. But alas, this is the conspiracy theory causing Ted Cruz and Rand Paul supporters to get behind Donald Trump.

This is absolutely ridiculous.

Now, having demonstrated how ridiculous this conspiracy theory is, I am hoping that those conservatives, libertarians, and constitutionalists that have jumped ship will be able to reevaluate this campaign. Luckily it’s still early and no one has voted on the basis of a lie; and even more fortunately, it is such an awful theory that it is easily debunked and set aside.

It is also important to understand that I do not believe for a second that Trump’s people are behind this. While I am not a Donald Trump supporter, I do understand that there are plenty of folks who really like his politics, his success, and his campaign platform. These are the true Trump supporters and this article is not designed to sway a single one of those. This article is only meant to debunk a theory that has affected the thinking of some conservatives, libertarians, and constitutionalists.


About Steven Brodie Tucker

Graduated with a degree in Philosophy from Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. Also studied economics and political science at George Mason.

11 Responses to “Debunking Conspiracy Theory Driving Droves of Conservatives to Trump”

  1. Paul Thiel says:

    Mr. Tucker, you are so in the can for Jebbie it is not even funny.
    He is a puppet with absolutely nothing original to offer anyone!
    Big corporate money is totally pulling his Strings!
    He is about as original as flies attacking the honey bowl!
    Please don’t be one of his flies!

    • Jason Rivetti says:

      Mr. Thiel,

      Tuck is most definitely NOT IN THE TANK for the JEBSTER. Tuck is a Lib Tard. ( Libertarian) those liberals who advocate for open borders and legalized drugs, prostitution, pornography.

      He also supports the COS- let’s open up the constitution with the communists and Marxists and the activist SCOTUS and the Commie Muslim President and hope that we still have a nation when the Food Fight ends.

      He’s definitely not Establishment GOP but That’s Tucker.

      • Steven Brodie Tucker

        I’m a Constitutional Libertarian, but I’m a Constitutionalist first and foremost. I do support a Convention of the States in order to put an end to an activist supreme court, Congress, and Executive, returning power to the States.

      • Steven Brodie Tucker

        Oh, and I’m absolutely against open borders. In fact, I’ve called for the deportation of illegal immigrants and a 12 year stay on all legal immigration.

        • Jason Rivetti says:

          You supported Rob Sarvis for Governor and his entire platform as a Lib Tard was OPEN BORDERS.

          That’s the problem with Libertarians. They want LEGAL DRUGS, LEGAL PROSTITUTION, LEGAL PORN, AND OPEN BORDERS.


  2. Steven Brodie Tucker

    I’m in the tank for Jeb Bush? Please explain. I’m fascinated by that hypothesis.

  3. David Jackson

    Whether or not a conspiracy is present who truly knows? But I for one believe a lot of strategies in the politics is a certainty and it doesn’t stop once a candidate is elected. Look at all of the behind the door compromises that go on daily where the public has no knowledge. Look at the efforts of Jeb Bush and Eric Cantor here in VA to take out the conservative movement. I am a member of the Spotsylvania Republican Party where a war is currently being waged between the establishment and the conservative wing and believe me there are strategies being waged. It’s called politics. Strategies or conspiracy what’s the difference? Read my lips Bush wasn’t in the vice chair by accident. Reagan did not like him but there were enough progressives in the establishment to defeat Reagan at the polls. It is indeed interesting that many of the candidates such as do nothing Gilmore, Graham, Jindel, Kasich and others are even in the race. None of them can win and I don’t think any of them will be on the bottom of the ticket unless Jeb wins.
    David Jackson

    • Steven Brodie Tucker

      I think the RNC wants to nominate an establishment candidate and I think they have rigged the system, but all these other moderate candidates haven’t helped Bush. It’s killed him. He’s got hundreds of millions of dollars and he rarely polls in double digits because Trump and Fiorina and Carson are taking HIS votes. The idea that a conservative can’t win, which is what these liberal win at all costs republicans tell us EVERY election is bogus. It used to be the establishment that did only Romney can win. Now it’s Trump pushing that line. It’s not true and never was.

  4. Stand with Rand says:

    This elaborate GOP plan you expose was devised was plotted because the Establishment GOP FEARED RAND PAUL and his plans to audit the FED and end the IRS, implement a Flat Tax, and stop their ONE WORLD GLOBAL ECONOMIC HOUSE OF CARDS.

    Don’t rule out Rand Paul. The Polling is WRONG. Just like the Polling was wrong for Cantor -up 30 points over Dave Brat in the historic June 2014 Primary.

    Rand Paul Revolution.

    • Steven Brodie Tucker

      Jeans, I like Rand Paul a lot. We’d be in great hands with either him or Cruz. I don’t care which at the moment. I’ll be closer to a decision come October 16th. I’ve been told he may already have enough signatures to get on the Virginia ballot.

  5. robert shannon

    Nothing is added of value to the discussion by the juvenile name calling. Often times a result of nothing substantive to say, substituting for the lack of intellect.

    Many who supported Rob Sarvis or left the republicrat party as I did in 2004 simply refuse to back political candidates any time their integrity comes into question.

    You can change an honest mans mind through reason and debate. You can not however change the mind of a candidate or elected official that the crony capitalist already have their hooks into.

    Mr “name caller” who slams libertarians for their abidance to the Constitution might get the document out himself and read it.

    I’ll make it even easier for him,explain for the “tards” how well that 40 year war on drugs has worked out, or how effective the money we have spent has been, besides creating another cottage industry of private prisons. No reasonable person would advocate for the legalization of any narcotics, but legalization removes much of the darker side, the allure for a 15 year old to drop out of school because he can make $1000 a week serving as a lookout for those peddling the crap in the shadows. Spend the money on a 1 time treatment program, It takes or they can go on abusing themselves as provided for in a free society. Explain for us how legalizing a service that has been often referred to as the second oldest profession changes anything ? The brutal treatment of these women who practice an admittedly horrible profession is only made so much more so by the criminal code. Living in a free society where people often make bad choices isn’t a justification for you or anyone else to enforce your believe system on anyone. Our founders had the view ( interpreted by many ) that if you are not harming someone else you would be free to do as you wish. If someone commits violence as a result of their drug use ( or alcohol use-or just plain ugly violent personality ) then of course society can not allow that, and must intervene.

    Otherwise spend your time in some deep intellectual thought on the issues. People tune anyone out that resorts to that type of conduct, it lends nothing to the discussion.

    I suggest the focus and energy be spent on the economic issues, for if the tent collapses illegal drug use, and or prostitution will be the least of our problems.

    Bob Shannon


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Tom White Says:

Nothing is more conservative than a republican wanting to get their majority back. And nothing is more liberal than a republican WITH a majority.

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